The car market is influenced very much by the COE quota, both
new and used cars. Your issue of breakeven point is pegged to
selling price which very much depends on the used car market again.
The bottom price would be the ARF rebate + COE rebate. So at that
point, the owner just would have to choose the lesser evil. Also
how many people is using the zero down (actually is at least 10%
down)?
The new tax structure has drastically reduce the scrap value of
cars, therefore I dont think car owner can afford to scrap their
cars after 3 years.
I am not saying all owners will scrap after 3 years. I just
outline the factors for the next 3-5 years imply a negative bias
for car prices due to the kick in of COE cycle. Pls understand that
in looking at the whole market, there are always car owners of cars
of varying years.
