By Michael
Barr - 30 January
2013 10:36AM
Dr Michael
Barr is a Senior Lecturer at Flinders University and
Editor-in-Chief, Asian Studies
Review.
Last weekend's by-election in Singapore has inflicted the
fourth electoral blow in a row to the ruling People's Action
Party.
The PAP had already lost six seats to the opposition in the
general elections of May 2011, collected only just over one-third
of the vote in the presidential election of August 2011 (still
enough to win against a divided opposition), and then failed to win
back an opposition seat in a by-election in late 2012.
The loss of the Single Member Constituency of
Punggol East is a particularly cruel blow because it is a new
constituency created only two years ago, and according
to the former PAP MP for the constituency, this was done
precisely because the PAP regarded it as safe
territory.
What went so wrong that the PAP could only win 43.7% of the
vote last Saturday? The electorate abuts other opposition
electorates, but this was not enough to make a dent in 2011, when
the PAP won the seat handsomely with 54.5% (coincidentally,exactly
the same percentage won by Lee Li Lian of the Workers'
Party on Saturday against the PAP and two other opposition
candidates).
The problem for the PAP goes far beyond mere voter anger over a
dozen different issues that affect everyday lives. That would be
enough of a problem, but given time this can be corrected (and I
have little doubt that despite this string of setbacks, the PAP is
still not in any danger of actually losing government in the next
couple of elections).
The deeper problem is that people are now
listening to a different narrative.
Even when the Government is putting its own narrative, ordinary
people hear a different one. In this election, the PAP's candidate,
Dr Koh Poh Koon, a surgeon who trained in the US and the UK on
government scholarships and who now has a thriving private
practice, used the usual line that he had never been active in
politics and had not even been a member of the PAP until three
weeks prior to being announced as the candidate, but he had done
well out of Singapore and felt 'duty-bound
to stand and be counted'.
In the past this tune played well, but this time people heard
something along the lines of: 'I have won in the Singapore system
and I want to protect what I have got.' The
message from the Workers' Party's Lee Li Lian was that she
has been active in politics for seven years, she is not happy with
the state of Singapore and she wants to bring about change.
The PAP candidate is a wealthy member of the
elite. The Workers' Party candidate started
with a polytechnic diploma in business which she upgraded to a
degree in sales and marketing from Curtin University of Technology
in Perth. She is now a personnel trainer in a private company,
confirming a strong and new pattern of opposition candidates being
drawn from the Chinese business community, and making her an
ordinary person. Until recently, the 'elite' narrative would have
won hands-down, but no longer.
The Government tried during 2012 to trash the Workers' Party's
record as a manager of the opposition-held Aljunied-Hougang Town
Council, only to find the PAP exposed as
the new owner of the software company that rents the computer
software systems to town councils, software that was originally
developed with government money and which has been placed in PAP
hands after
all other interested parties withdrew their tenders for
one reason or another.
The next problem for the PAP is that, having lost control of the
narrative when talking to constituents, it now also risks
losing control of the narrative when addressing the elite on which
it depends for candidates and future ministers. How is it going to
attract high quality candidates if it cannot guarantee an easy ride
into parliament? Who is it going to find to run against the
Workers' Party in seats that the PAP has already lost?
No doubt it will find someone to stand, but if all it can promise
is the risk of public scrutiny and defeat, it is not going to
attract its usual collection of generals, permanent secretaries and
senior executives from government-linked companies. Where is the
next crop of competent ministers going to come from? The new
pattern risks becoming a vicious circle that will further weaken
the Government.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong can count his
lucky stars that he faces no challenges from within cabinet, but
must now be under no illusions that it is only his control over the
levers of institutional power that is keeping political oblivion at
arm's length. Unless he is grossly
negligent, this should be more than enough for him to coast into
the next decade still in power, but this is surely not much of a
comfort.
The short-term risk for Singapore now is that the
Government will lapse into old authoritarian habits, and bring back
the 'knuckle-duster' politics of which Lee's father, Lee Kuan Yew,
used to speak so fondly. There are firm
signs that this has begun happening, with some renewed
use of libel actions and politically
driven prosecutions to try to suppress dissident voices,
and a marked increase in the frequency with which foreign
observers, solicitors and commentators are being turned
away atChangi
Airport.
The problem for the PAP is that even these
measures are unlikely to be enough to restore its mystique as an
efficient, professional outfit, worthy of unquestioning trust.
Those days are gone, probably for good.
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2013/01/30/Singapore-government-loses-control-of-its-narrative.aspx
