Does Racial
harmony really require the utilization of 75 GRC parliamentary
seats?
Why despite GRCs parliamentary seats now occupying 89.286%of all
parliamentary seats, minorities remain under protected by the GRC
system of elections.
The GRC system of elections seems now more effective at sidelining
the opposition rather than rather then 'ensuring minority
representation'- thus calling into question PAP's original
sincerity at 'ensuring minority representation' in the first
place.
From: [ElectionsDeptSingapore>
Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs)](accessed
02Dec2010)
- “The group may be made up of 3, 4, 5 or 6 individuals. The
President declares the group number for each GRC by law.”
- “At least one of the MPs in the group representing a GRC must
belong to a minority racial community, either the Malay community
or the Indian and other minority communities.”
- "The GRC system was established in 1988 to ensure that the
minority racial communities in Singapore will always be represented
in Parliament..."
However a quick observation of
'Table 1: Evolution of the electoral system in Singapore'
(1963- 2001) [Yeo Lay Hwee/ Electoral Politics in Singapore], begs
the suspicion if 'Minority Representation' would be the excuse
rather then the aim of the GRC system of elections. (kindly refer
to the excerpted image of the
same table for the following discussions)
When the GRC system of elections was first implemented in the 1988
GE, 13GRCs, of strictly 3 MPs each, took up 39 out of a total of 81
parliamentary seats. (39/81= 48.148% of all seats)- having 13 GRCs
according to existing rules meant GRCs ensuring 13/81= 16.0494%
parliamentary minority representation. This as a fraction 21.7%
(the %minority resident population in the 1980's), the 1988GE
ensured 16.0494/21.7= 73.960% effective minority representation by
virtue of 13 GRCs being mandated in the 1988GE. In summary, 1988GE
GRC election system ensured minority parliamentary representation
of 73.960% and GRCs took up 48.148% of all parliamentary
seats.
In contrast, the 2006GE (whose GRC allocations mirror that of the
2001GE) had 14 GRCs occupying 75 seats out of a total of 84 seats
(75/84= 89.286% of all seats). Based upon 2000 minority resident
population of 23.2%, the GRC system of elections was only able to
ensure, pre-election, that [14/(84*23.2%)]= 71.839% of minorities
would be represented. In summary, the 2006GE GRC elections system
ensured minority parliamentary representation of 71.839% and GRCs
took up 89.286% of all parliamentary seats.
Thus, between GE1988 and GE2006, effective minority representation
fell by [(73.960-71.839)/73.960]= 2.868% whilst the proportion of
parliamentary seats taken up by GRCs swelled by
[(89.286-48.148)/48.148]= 85.441%.
What decent explanation has the PAP to give for swelling up GRCs
whilst diluting minority representation- doesn’t this action go
against the cause for which the GRC system of elections was
implemented in the first place?
I note that PM Lee HL 'recently' announced in
'GRCs to shrink, but they will stay' [The Straits Times- 28 May
2009], that GE2011/12 would see 12SMCs (3 more than current 9) and
fewer 6member GRCs. Still, what is 12 SMCs if the 1988GE then
managed to have 42SMCs and a 2.868% superior effect of 'ensuring
minority representation'. Please note that the % minority residents
in Singapore has since increased to 25.8%- so now despite having 14
GRCs, the effective minority ensured representation of
[14/(84*25.8%)]= 64.599% is a further depreciation of
[(73.960-64.599)/73.960]= 12.657% from GE1988's effectiveness in
terms of the primary purpose of the GRC system of elections-
ensuring minority representation. (cf GE1988, GE2011 sees GRCs
still swelled up by {[(72/84)-48.148%]/48.148%}= 78.023%)
Perhaps some PAP members felt guilty in the light of such
condemning statistics that they decided to pacify the electorate
with the 26April2010 CNA announcement
'Parliament amends Constitution to change NCMP & NMP
schemes' “the opposition has since become such an endangered
species in the Singapore political scene that the PAP now needs to
save the opposition politician from extinction, thus, “the NCMP
position is a unique feature of Singapore politics” tongue in cheek
of course.
In my mind, the GRC system of elections has betrayed the minorities
and effectively sidelined the opposition.
Annex:
Keeping in mind BOTH PAP's interest at having large GRCs, the need
for minorities to have some representation in parliament (a 2/3 leg
up would be sensible and this enhanced with the
NCMP system which should allow for 'losing' minority candidates
rather then losing opposition candidates- the opposition Mr LowTK
has alluded to this).
'Singaporeans want more say' [A1news, 02Aug2010]: “when it
comes to political activities like policy making as compared to ten
years ago”; -
'The Malays in Singapore – no crutch mentality'[LKSblog,
28Jul2010]: "Berita Harian Singapore editor Guntor Sadali: 'We do
not believe in being spoon-fed or being too dependent on government
help. In other words, we do not have a crutch mentality.'" should
all be taken into account.
Given the 2009 resident minority population estimate to be 25.8%,
there should be 25.8%*84= 21.672, rounded up to 22 minority
candidates in parliament. Given the max shortfall of 22-14= 8
minority candidates, the best losing minority candidates can then
become NCMPs to make up a total of 22 minority candidates in
parliament.
Towards this end, I'd like to propose that in the next/ coming
election, GRC 'ensure' that there be 2/3*25.8%minority*84seats=
14.448, rounded down = 14 ensured minority candidates. Each GRC
shall have a minimum of 33.33% minority representation for- the
following combinations are possible: 2+1^ (3memb GRCs), 2+2^
(4membGRC), 3+2^ (5memb GRC), 4+2^ (6memb GRC) where the minority
candidate is denoted by the suffix '^'. At most, GRCs can take up
14*3= 42 GRC parliamentary seats leaving the other 42 seats as SMC
parliamentary seats.
The total number of GRCs is thus determined by the number of
minority candidates necessary to achieve 33% ensured minority
representation. Since 14 minority candidates is the current
optimum, a possible distribution of GRCs can be as follows:
2*3 mbrGRC: 2 minority candidates, total of 06 seats allocated to
2*3 mbrGRCs.
1*4 mbrGRC: 2 minority candidates, total of 04 seats allocated to
1*4 mbrGRC.
1*5 mbrGRC: 2 minority candidates, total of 05 seats allocated to
1*5 mbrGRC.
4*6 mbrGRC: 8 minority candidates, total of 24 seats allocated to
3*6 mbrGRCs
Total minority candidates in 8 GRCs= 14, with a total of 39 seats
allocated to GRCs.
***84 – 39 = 45 SMCs!!!***
My suggestion of 14 'ensured minority MPs' is comparable with the
existing GRC minority allocation and my novel use of the NCMP
scheme to further the cause of racial harmony exceeds that of the
existing GRC system of elections. There would then be no need for
the opposition supporting NCMP system, the butt of criticism about
SG's 'novel' political system. And yes, PM LeeHL did embarrass
himself in 'PM
Lee says countries worldwide respect and admire Singapore's proven
system': "...I'm going to spend all my time thinking what's the
right way to fix them, to buy my supporters votes, how can I solve
this week's problem and forget about next year's challenges?"..."
[CNA:03May2006][YouTube/@1m10s]
PAP should stop paying lip service to its principles.
And then the people of Singapore will be happy.
Majulah Singapura
References:
- 'Betrayal of the original intent of the GRC system of
elections. (By SMC minimization)' Facts and figures from
(Table1) Yeo Lay Hwee. “Electoral
Politics in Singapore [Chart wiki:
Constituencies of Singapore], [Chart wiki:
Ethnic composition (%) of resident population], ~B.C.: [A1forums,
25Aug2010].
- 'Singapore: Drawing Districts to Ensure Super-Majorities
in the Parliament' [ace: The
Electoral Knowledge Network]: “The government has been
controlled by the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) since
independence from Britain in 1959. This uninterrupted reign of
power stems from two key factors ...”