New
Geographer
Singapore's
Demographic Winter
www.forbes.com
Joel
Kotkin,
07.06.10
A
catastrophic plunge in the island nation's birthrate could
undermine its tremendous economic successes.
Over the
past half century arguably no place on earth has progressed more
than the tiny island state of Singapore. A once impoverished,
tropical powder keg packed into 268 square miles at the foot of the
Malay Peninsula, the Mandarin-led republic has ascended from its
difficult founding in 1965 to one of the richest economies on the
planet. Today, in terms of purchasing power, its per capita
income stands higher than most European countries' or Japan's and
is roughly equal to that of the U.S.
But a
catastrophic plunge in the country's birthrate--a problem plaguing
many of the world's affluent economies--could undermine Singapore's
success. In 1965 Singapore's leaders feared it could not survive an
unsustainable fertility rate above 3.5 and embarked
on a campaign encouraging citizens to have smaller families. Today
the country's fertility rate--the number of children per
female--has sunk to roughly 1.2 , a rate lower than all but a
handful of countries and well below replacement level.
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This pattern
poses a threat to the republic's continued progress over the coming
decades. The dependency ratio between retired persons and those 15
to 64--far lower than Europe, America or Japan in the 1970s--will
reach the unsustainable levels of places like Japan, Germany and
Italy by 2030. By then there could well be more people over 65 than
under 15.
This shift
in demographics is a common challenge for almost all advanced
countries--even the U.S., which enjoys the healthiest demography of
any major wealthy nation. In Europe and particularly Asia, once
challenged by overpopulation, there is the looming prospect of what
a new documentary calls the "demographic winter."
Of course,
not everyone finds this "winter" a chilling thought. A growing
chorus of environmentalists, particularly in Europe and the U.S.,
sees the
shrinking numbers of "little
monsters" a boon for the planet.
Peter
Kareiva, the chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy, one of the more
levelheaded environmental organizations, has concluded that
not having children is the most effective way of reducing
"carbon scenarios" and becoming an "eco hero." Meanwhile the more
extremist
Voluntary Human Extinction
Movement promotes the lovely notion of terminating the
species through voluntary childlessness.
For their
part, Singapore's leaders have focused on providing parkland,
building a functioning subway and recycling city wastes. But these
pragmatists show little tolerance for such Western-style species
self-hatred. A society proud of its accomplishments, its
agglomerated cultures--Chinese, Indian, Malay--continue to value
family as the supreme societal unit.
At the same
time, many leaders trace the depth of their demographic problem to
their own campaign to limit families back in the 1970s. "We have
been very successful in reducing the birthrate," observes Lui Pao
Chuen, adviser to the National Research Foundation and a prime
architect of Singapore's defense systems. "The society will die if
it goes on like this. We want our society to live on."
In the past
decade Singapore's leaders have tried to change course, attempting
to raise the birth rate by offering generous cash
incentives and other inducements for baby-making. But so far, they
admit, these efforts have had little effect.
Part of the
problem may lie with high densities, an inescapable reality in a
city-state with literally no suburban periphery. Singapore's public
housing--80% of citizens live in government flats--is generally
better and larger than those in other Asian countries. Still the
prospect of raising children in a 1,000-square-foot, two-bedroom
flat may seem less appealing than doing so, say, in a suburban
housing estate in Australia, New Zealand, California or
Texas.
Equally
intractable may be the very competitive spirit at the heart of the
republic's success. Singapore possesses two great natural
advantages: a strategic location between the Pacific and Indian
Oceans and a motivated population. The city's leaders have done a
brilliant job of capitalizing on both, developing one of the
world's largest ports and one of Asia's best-educated,
hardest-working populations.
This in turn
has created a population that often places education and career
advancement over child-raising, marriage and even dating. Some 85%
of singles still express a desire to get married, and nearly 80%
want two or three children. But the pressure to succeed often
prevails. "The pace of life has people putting things on hold,"
admits NG Mie Ling, coordinating director for the government's
Family Development Group.
Despite
these challenges, Singapore may not be doomed to follow Europe and
other advanced east Asian nations into the demographic dustbin. For
one thing, the city's bureaucracy is cleverer than most and may be
able to change some policies--placing more emphasis on leisure time
for mate-chasing and child-raising to building larger
apartments--to reverse the current birth dearth.
Singapore's
unique ethnic and national identity may prove an even bigger asset.
Unlike its Asian rivals, Singapore--though mainly Chinese--remains
a truly multiracial society. Like America, it is a nation of
immigrants. Few can trace their local roots there more than two or
three generations. This makes the Republic more suited for
accommodating newcomers from China, India and Malaysia, as well as
from countries like the Philippines or Vietnam.
Newcomers
can find a kindred ethnic or religious community. Many also
intermarry with Singaporeans; over 40% of all marriages are between
citizens and noncitizens, up from only 30% a decade ago.
Interracial marriages are also increasingly common. Whereas it is
virtually impossible to become Japanese or Korean, one can become a
Singaporean.
Immigration
allows Singapore's population and skilled workforce to grow at a
healthy clip despite the low birth rate. Today barely 3.2 million
of the current nearly 5 million Singaporeans are citizens; many
others immigrate to enjoy the excellent schools, the high degree of
safety and cleanliness and a political stability that is rare in
the region. Last year 60,000 people were granted permanent
residency and nearly 20,000 became citizens.
"We are
still trying to figure out what it is to be a Singaporean,"
observes Calvin Soh, chief creative officer in Asia for the
Publicis advertising company. This evolving identity may not be
obvious in the city's impressive but hardly unique office, hotel
and condo complexes. It is best illustrated in the city's
remarkable neighborhoods with their open air markets and a
strikingly diverse food culture flourishing both in small,
family-owned restaurants and hawker stalls.
The city's
internationally recognized food scene, Soh believes, could serve as
a model for other cultural products, from media and fashion to
product design. Ideally suited to serve as the crossroads culture
of 21st-century Asia , Singapore can emerge like 14th-century
Venice, which flourished by connecting Europe with the
civilizations further to the east.
Like their counterparts in other
successful countries, Singapore's executives and administrators
face enormous demographic challenges. But if any Asian society can
confront, or at least ameliorate, the great fertility crisis, it is
this tiny island country with a track record of solving seemingly
insurmountable problems.
Joel Kotkin is a
distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at
Chapman
University. He is also an adjunct fellow at
the Legatum
Institute in London and serves as executive editor
of newgeography.com.
He writes the weekly
New Geographer column for
Forbes. His latest book,
The Next Hundred Million: America in
2050, was
published in February 2010 by Penguin
Press.