During the recent China-Japan-South Korea summit at Jeju island,
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao expressed his support for the eventual
unification of the two Koreas when South Korea President Lee
Myung-bak said his country’s goal is to get North Korea to
open up its economy and strive toward peaceful reunification
through that process.
Wen’s pledge of support seems to contradict China’s official
policy towards North Korea regime which has been on Chinese
life-support for over a decade since a series of famines wrecked
the economy of the Stalinist state in the 1990s.
Above: North Koreans pay their
respect to their “Great Leader” Kim Il-Sung whose statue towers
over the capital Pyongyang.
Without China’s generous aid and support, Pyongyang would grow
increasingly dependent on South Korea thereby paving the way for
eventual dialogue and reunification between the two sides.
The rising tension in the Korean peninsula today is caused
partly by China’s reluctance to rein in the excesses of North Korea
from its blatant refusal to return to the six-party talks and its
periodic schizophrenic outbursts against the south.
Despite evidence pointing to North Korea’s involvement in the
sinking of the South Korean corvette “Cheonan”, China has refused
to express a clear stance in the matter, calling for both parties
to “exercise restraint”.
A few days earlier, the North’s “Dear Leader’ Kim Jong-IL had
travelled to Beijing probably to secure economic assistance from
China again after its botched currency reform in the beginning of
the year.
China’s undivided loyalty to its communist ally is a crucial
factor in keeping the latter from a much feared self-implosion
which would have accelerated the pace of re-unification.
A paper published in May by the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC, written by two
American academics, Bonnie Glaser and Scott Snyder, details the
possible consequences in the event of a regime collapse in North
korea: refugees pouring into China and South Korea, insecure
weapons of mass destruction and the threat of uncoordinated
military actions taken in North Korea by South Korea, China and
America.
Though it was never mentioned publicly, few leaders in Beijing
would relish the prospect of a unified Korea right on China’s
doorsteps which would disrupt the power-balance in Northeast
Asia.
China prefers to have a weak North Korea perennially dependent
on it for handouts as a neighbor and a buffer against the
prosperous South and its American ally rather than a unified Korean
nation which is both economically and militarily strong.
In less than five decades, South Korea managed to recover from
the destruction brought about by the Korean War and transformed
itself into an economic powerhouse in the world.
If South Korea were to unite with the North, it would come to
the possession of a one-million strong army and a nuclear arsenal,
a scenario which Beijing will want to pre-empt from occuring.
China’s innermost fears and insecurities of the reunification of
Korea and the subsequent emergence of a strong Korean state stem
partly from historical rivalry and animosities between the two
nations.
Above: At the height of its
power, Gorguryeo occupied two-thirds of the Korean peninsula and
large chunks of Manchuria including today’s Liaoning and Jilin
provinces in China. Korea’s English name is derived from
Gorguryeo.
In the first millenium, China was in constant conflict with two
powerful Korean states on its northeastern frontier. The Sui
dynasty fought three disastrous wars with the Korean kingdom
of Gorguryeo which eventually led to its downfall.
The succeeding Tang dynasty only managed to conquer Gorguryeo
after three unsuccessful attempts with the loss of millions of
lives. Even then, its attempt to govern the Korean peninsula was
short-lived with another Korean state Balhae emerging from the
ruins of Gorguryeo to challenge its supremacy in the Northeast.
The relationship between the two countries only start to
normalize during the Joseon dynasty when Korea effectively became a
vassal state of the Ming dynasty after it relinquished all claims
to the lands north of the Yalu river.
China’s northeast is home to a significant number of ethnic
Koreans, most of them residing in the Yanbian autonomous county
bordering North Korea.
Above: The Chinese city of Yanji
near North Korea. Notice that the road signs are in both Chinese
and Korean as mandated under the city’s law.
While a rising proportion of the Korean population has been
effectively sinicized over the years thanks to some shrewd
government policies, the situation may change with a prosperous
Korea as its neighbor rather than the present improverished
North.
Increased exchange between the two sides may spark off
separatist tendencies in areas with a Korean majority such as the
“Gando” corridor which is still viewed by some Korean historians as
an inseparable part of Korea.
Many Korean heritage sites and relics are found there such as
the famous Goguryeo wall murals and the Gwanggaeto Steele in
the border town of Ji’an along the Tumen river.
Above: The famous Gorguryeo wall
murals found in Ji’an, Jilin province. Ji’an was a former capital
of the Korean kingdom of Gorguryeo, known then as Guknae.
With trouble brewing in Tibet and Xinjiang, Beijing will not
risk starting a fire in its own backyard especially when the
three northeast provinces have been ear-marked for economic
development as part of a greater plan to revive China’s
industrial dustbelt.
A weak and dependent North Korea will not
only help to secure its own borders, but will come in
handy as a useful pawn to check on South Korea as well in order to
maintain the strategic equilibrium in Northeast Asia.
TEMASEK REVIEW
TS ,
I find the article perspective perhaps narrow views on
China.
If you read todays paper you See WEN JIABO has his picture taken
with the General of Myanmar Military Junta. Who now
has been accused of collaborating with North Korea on
Nukes.
Whats more coincidentally today is the first day of Defence
Dialogue in Singapore. A symbolic and timely message well intended
for its audience.
China continue to view Myanmar as its strategic position since
WWII where supplies were brought into China thru Burma to fought
against Japanese.
A dilemma for countries that stretch from India
to South Korea and Japan.