新加坡的五大政治风险
这是路透社今天整理出来的新加坡的五大政治风险。虽然新加坡一直被认为是亚洲投资风险最小的经济体。但下列政治风险还是值得关注。
我先把英文版贴在这里供大家讨论。中文编译版稍后提供。
FACTBOX-Five
political risks to watch in Singapore
Singapore
is widely
seen as one of Asia's
least risky investment destinations, a key ingredient in its
success as a regional trade and investment hub.
Following is a summary of key Singapore
risks to
watch:
* SECURITY
Militants have long had Singapore
in their
sights -- a Jemaah Islamiyah plot for multiple attacks was
uncovered in December 2001. Internal security and policing are far
ahead of neighbouring states, but the escape of al Qaeda-linked
militant Mas Selamat Kastari from prison was a lapse that showed
security is not infallible. The port remains a key potential
target, and an attack on it could cause global disruption. There is
also the risk Singapore
will see the
emergence of more home-grown militants who would be better able to
evade internal security.
Key issues to watch:
-- Assessments of strength and tactics of Jemaah Islamiyah and its
offshoots. Most analysts believe the main JI movement has abandoned
attacks on civilian targets, while the a violent splinter group was
badly weakened after the death of its leader Noordin Mohammad Top.
If this changes, the threat could rise.
* POLITICAL CHANGE
As Singapore evolves, calls for a more open political system with
greater diversity of views are likely to intensify.
Singapore's
restrictions on opposition activity and freedom of speech will also
come under increasing scrutiny. Markets will be watching whether
the ruling People's Action Party can manage the transition to
greater openness smoothly, and find the appropriate balance between
greater openness and continued stability.
Key issues to watch:
-- Any sign of growing social pressure for political change.
-- Government response to pressure for change. The government says
it will amend the constitution ahead of the next general elections
in early 2010, to allow more opposition representation. But the
change is not expected to have a significant impact.
* CORRUPTION AND LACK OF TRANSPARENCY
Preferential treatment shown to government-linked firms is a source
of resentment and may deter some foreign investment. And
while Singapore
is regularly
rated as one of the least corrupt countries in the world, there are
concerns over the stunted nature of political debate, and a lack of
transparency in some areas -- including the collapse of the plan to
install Chip Goodyear to run Temasek in place of the prime
minister's wife.
Key issues to watch:
-- Corruption rankings. Any sign that Singapore
is slipping
in global corruption rankings would dent the investment
attractiveness of the city state.
-- Government policies. Long-term investors will be watching for
any trend towards greater or less transparency.
* RELATIONS WITH NEIGHBOURS
Singapore-bashing is a sure-fire way to win political capital in
many regional countries. Relations with Indonesia,
Malaysia
and
Thailand
in
particular are often thorny, and are further complicated by
Singapore's
heavy investment in regional economies and its reliance on
neighbours for some key resources. As the debacle over the purchase
of Thailand's
Shin Corp showed, careful management of relations with neighbours
is necessary not just for Singapore's
security but also for its economic prosperity.
Key issues to watch:
-- Any signs of a fresh flare-up in tension with
Singapore's
unruly neighbours.
* DEMOGRAPHICS AND RACE RELATIONS
Singapore
saw deadly
race riots in the 1950s and 1960s, and while considerable progress
has been made in achieving racial harmony, some tensions remain.
The issue is complicated by demographic issues -- the majority
Chinese population is growing at a lower rate than minority Malays
and Indians due to different birth rates, and the government has
made repeated efforts to encourage citizens to have more children.
Labour shortages mean the country has to rely on immigrant workers
for many jobs.
Key issues to watch:
-- Any sharp rise of racial tensions or unrest. This is considered
extremely unlikely.
Source: http://www.nanyangpost.com/forum/showthread.php?t=117179