Singapore's People Power

last SG · 2008-11-12T10:33:24+00:00

let's hear your solution..When property prices started to rise in 2006, I said that it was urgent that they do something about it (http://209.85.175.104/sear...

AndrewPKYap SG

Businesses, too, will benefit from lower costs.

As long as the despots refuse to lower the prices and cost of living in Singapore.... The despots have damaged the economy and for self interests, they are reluctant to do the necessary.

Singaporeans have to stop spending and cut down on spending on essentials to save the country from total destruction.... and send the email reminding their friends to do the same.

Singaporeans need to do something about this recession themselves.....

send the email:

Look what I found in the internet and I am forwarding it to you and forward it to as many people you know as possible:

Quote:

Singaporeans are now attempting to lower the cost of living here by stopping all spending and cutting down on spending on essentials.

It will benefit the country and Singaporeans at the expense of foreigners.

Do not spend even if you can, hoard your money in this time of uncertainty and do yourself a favour as well. Do this until the cost of living falls significantly. You will benefit from the lower prices if you delay your spending, you will be able to buy more for less later.

Regards

Andrew Yap"

End of quote

AndrewPKYap SG

what to do.. addiction sells...

...stooping a little low... to make money from people's weaknesses...

AndrewPKYap SG

About 4,560 of these homes are scheduled for completion next year while another 2,540 will be ready in 2010, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said in a statement.

Singapore introduced the deferred payment scheme in 1997 in a bid to boost the then-moribond property market. The scheme, which was withdrawn in 2007, allowed buyers to buy property under construction without lining up bank financing in advance so long as they made a downpayment of 10-20 percent.

The recent fall in Singapore home prices, coupled with the financial crisis that has made banks reluctant to lend, has led to concerns about a jump in the supply of unsold homes due to the failure of buyers to get loans.

AndrewPKYap SG

Singapore style sub-prime crisis... stop spending....

HOARD YOUR MONEY!!!!

ArtBoon SG

Ha ha, I expected a much stronger reaction from you.... :)

what to do.. addiction sells...

...stooping a little low... to make money from people's weaknesses...

ArtBoon SG

From the URA source, there are about 4500 homes (paid using DPS) to be completed in 2009, and 2500 in 2010.

In Q2 and Q3 this year, average sale volume for all private homes is about 1500 (inclusive of sub sales).

It is hard to estimate % of deferred payment scheme who are just "contra player". assume say 20% (dunno high or low), that is 900 for 2009, which is about 15% of quarterly volume.

This additional 15%, to me, is force sell volume.

Wondering how that is going to affect the price...?

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AndrewPKYap SG

Don't forget the buyers that are foreigners that will almost definitely not pick up their units.

ArtBoon SG

Thanks. Have updated my "composition".

http://arthurboon.blogspot.com/2008/12/property-contra-play-unwinding-next.html

Just read this report:

SINGAPORE, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Singapore said on Friday there were 10,450 uncompleted private homes purchased under the country's deferred payment scheme, revealing for the first time the potential number of homes that may be returned to developers. About 4,560 of these homes are scheduled for completion next year while another 2,540 will be ready in 2010, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said in a statement. Singapore introduced the deferred payment scheme in 1997 in a bid to boost the then-moribond property market. The scheme, which was withdrawn in 2007, allowed buyers to buy property under construction without lining up bank financing in advance so long as they made a downpayment of 10-20 percent. The recent fall in Singapore home prices, coupled with the financial crisis that has made banks reluctant to lend, has led to concerns about a jump in the supply of unsold homes due to the failure of buyers to get loans. "The data is provided to enable the public to make a better informed assessment of the private housing market," URA said.

The source is from URA: http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-119.html

Ok. So now I know that there are 10,450 private properties that were bought with 10% - 20% money upfront. Some of these guys I'll call them contra players (ie speculators) because they have no intention of paying for the balance. What is the percentage of contra players? I have no idea. Maybe 10-15% (because that is the subsale vs overall sales number from URA).

I also know that, since deferred payment scheme was scrapped, some properties were sold whereby the developer, instead of buyers, pays banks the interest till TOP, after the 10%-20% downpayment by buyers. I am not sure whether buyers need to arrange financing beforehand in these cases. Maybe whatever arrangement will depend on the risk appetite of the developers or its banker. Will just assume that the number is small, for now.

Let's take a look at transaction volume of the private property market.

3Q numbers are here: http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2008/pr08-107d.pdf
URA's analysis is here: http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-107.html

I am seeing about 4,000 to 4,500 units sold (either through primary or secondary market) per quarter in Q2 and Q3 this year. The volume has come down from the peak of more than 10,000/quarter in 07.

This post cited ST's report of a steep drop in caveat numbers, and someone (to me a very optimistic fellow, because I have been watching what he said) reportedly said, ‘The average number of monthly transactions for the last 10 years is about 1,300 per month, so we should be seeing lower than average transaction volumes.’ So maybe the 4Q quarterly volume might see another shrink of up to 50%, to 2,000-2,500?

Let's go back to the deferred payment scheme numbers. It is stated that about 4,500 units are "expected to be completed" in 2009. Another 2,500 are coming up in 2010. I am going to assume that there is no reason for developers not to complete the units, unless they run out of money to build.

So come 2009, against the dwindling say 10,000 units that the market is trying to digest, a certain number of the 4,500 will have to be off loaded by contra players (10%-15%?) or those that suddenly find themselves with no bankers (8%? HDB 3 month bad loan number is 8%), or foreigners who have decided to pack up and go (25% of residents here are foreigners, after all). The current big picture of recession and job loss is not helping those 900-1,000(?) sellers. And who knows? 2010 might get worse.

Contracting volume, force selling and bad sentiment. I am wondering how this will affect the price of that condo that I am looking at. And there are potentially 11,000 that the agents are trying to sell.

AndrewPKYap SG

The thing to worry about (property price collapse) is forced selling on individuals and if a developer collapses, on the developer. When force selling occurs, the seller (the one conducting the force selling) will sell at any price. They have to do that. If they do not sell and the price falls further they will be blamed. If the price rises, nobody thanks them.

What will drive an economic recovery? Money flowing into Singapore. At the rate that the US is resturcturing, money will flow there. Only when the US is fully recovered, will it start to flow back to Asia (Singapore, China).

Without money, stocks, properties and prices cannot rise.

So we look at the USA. It looks like their restructuring will last for a couple of years at least.

The despots here are assholes. I don't see any active restructing going on. I see only self-interests policies.

AndrewPKYap SG

I am wondering how this will affect the price of that condo that I am looking at.

Why bother to be looking at something, anything, specific? Just look at the big picture and when the big picture is starting to look better, then do you drill down and look at something specifically.

In the meantime, hoard your money so that when the time is right, you have the funds to take action.

AndrewPKYap SG

Another good reason to HOARD YOUR MONEY..... (don't forget to remind your friends to do the same.... the more people do it, the faster the prices will fall...)

Property auction sales at lowest point in 10 years
AsiaOne, Singapore - 37 minutes ago
By Joyce Teo SINGAPORE'S auction market has slumped to its lowest point in more than 10 years in terms of the value of properties sold this year. ...

AndrewPKYap SG

Don't worry that if you HOARD YOUR MONEY, it will affect retail sales....

Retailers said no significant drop in sales this year-end season
By Zhang Tingjun, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 20 December 2008 2220 hrs

If it affects, then foreigners have to go home that's all, but there are too many idiots taking the despots' advice to spend at a time of recession!. Hoard your money now and pay less later.

AndrewPKYap SG

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States fell 5 percent from two weeks earlier, hitting its lowest level since February 2004, according to the nationwide Lundberg survey released on Sunday.

You just know that it is not so in Singapore. Bring down prices in Singapore... hoard your money!

AndrewPKYap SG

Despots. It is ok to lose billions supporting foreign banks and buying Thaksin Shinawatra's company but when it comes to lowering public transport prices, they threaten Silliporeans.

GST of 8.5%, says transport minister

www.todayonline.com

HOARD YOUR MONEY TO BRING DOWN PRICES AND SEND THE EMAIL ENCOURAGING YOUR FRIENDS TO DO THE SAME!

AndrewPKYap SG

PAY CUTS; CPF CUTS!!!!!!

HEADLINE NEWS // Tuesday December 23, 2008 Cut wages, not CPF rates:Boon Heng
THE speculation has some employers keeping their fingers crossed, but Mr Lim Boon Heng is opposed to cutting Central Provident Fund (CPF)...

HOARD YOUR MONEY!!! Remind your friends to do the same!!!!

Daddy!! SG

THE roll-call seems pretty impressive.

Spain’s largest bank, Santander, set the ball rolling last month when it unexpectedly unveiled a deeply discounted 7.2 billion euros rights issue, designed to boost its tier-one capital from 6.3 per cent to 7 per cent.

It was quickly followed by Britain’s third largest bank, Standard Chartered Bank, which raised 1.8 billion pounds from its shareholders including Temasek Holdings which holds a 19 per cent stake in it.

Australia’s oldest bank, Westpac, then followed suit with a A$2.5 billion share placement, only weeks after saying that financial vitals were fine.

Now it is the turn of Singapore’s DBS Group Holdings to raise S$4 billion from shareholders to boost its capital base as well.

It leaves many investors to wonder how many more financial institutions are queuing up to get more funds from their shareholders.

Bets have been made on HSBC Holdings which had fallen 12.3 per cent in the past two weeks on fears that it would also join the fund-raising party.

Although it is a bank with deep roots in Hong Kong and Singapore, it has three-quarters of its loan books in blighted markets like the United States and Britain.

Any rights issue it makes will dwarf the current spate of cash calls made by other banks.

But this rash of cash-calls by banks raises an important issue. Bank shares form an integral part of many institutional funds’ portfolios. But in the current cash-strapped environment, will the fund managers have sufficient funds to subscribe to all of the rights issues that crop up?

And fund managers have plenty of funding worries already – like facing the huge spate of redemption calls by investors who are unhappy with their performances this year.

You can almost expect bank shares to weaken further, going forward.

Fund managers will rather switch out of them, rather than cough up more money to ensure that their shareholdings will not be diluted.

angel7030 SG