I agree with what you had said, but there's a few points to
note:
1) In fact, analsysts had already "predicted" that a recession was
looming when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ( when it wasn't in the
reds) were instructed by Bill Clinton, under his rule, to ease
morgage requirements and pre-requisites. This is to allow more
Americans to "live their "American Dream".
2) There were many intelligent but poor economists in England,
and i suspect many around the world, that fore-warned the people of
the imminen reccession. However, they were not Warren Buffets or
George Soros, rather they were "no-bodies" that is saying that the
sky was falling. Hence many scorned their warnings.
3) That is true to a certain extent. However, it is more towards
of jumping the bandwagon. Typical Singaporeans are very "kiasu",
when their neighbours or friends buy a new house, and brag that the
property market is on the upswing, etc etc, they do not
want to lose out. Furthermore, there were a slew of
positive market sentiments, which many believed that " the worst is
behind us ". However, it is merely an increase of consumer
confidence. The economy has not seen a technical recovery.
In my opinion, the global economy would only see a recovery in
2013. However, due to the positive upbeat, this can be brought back
to 2011, depending on how long this wave lasts.
Virgin post :)
Congrats on your virgin post :D
The worst is indeed not over yet. Many has forgotten the
1998~2003 period. It's a fact that economy goes in cycles (abt 10
to 11 years cycle by empirical data). But in the very long run, it
will be an uptrend, sort of a y=x sin x curve.
As what I said earlier about EW principle, my calculations using
fibonacci tells me that the "true bottom" for the current down is
somewhere in 2011 and beyond... The usual saying is that stock
markets precede economy by about 6 months, so if we follow that
saying, I do expect end-2011 to start-2012 for the economy to
really start recovering...
Have mentioned more in Money forum before.