To describe it this way is not very fair to Temasek Holding. As
the great financial tsunami ripples through the economy, it seems
indeed like a bargain to buy into the distressed company. On
restrospective we knew it might seem alot to pay for, but thats
impossible to predict. Veteran "sage of the Omaha" Warren
Buffet also made the same mistake to buy into the "bargains"
which are not so much of a bargain if we look at it today.
Anyway, government policies are very intricate. To spend
on free healthcare and transport would mean there
are no reserves and we will incur a budget deficit. Say goodbye to
our MAS exchange rate monetary policy and bye bye to infrastructure
spendings. We will be like US, UK and Japan with huge budget
deficits. You can't manage an independent monetary policy and
fiscal policy when your hands are tied down by a huge budget
deficit. Expect SGD to float wildly under attacks from speculator
and trade will be disrupted (not forgeting trade and stability is
our competitive advantage).
Back to Temasek Holdings, the annual compounding return since
1974 is 18% by market value. We have one of the finest SWFs and
sufficiently transparent with annual report (Temasek Review)
available on the website. Despite huge losses, it has a very strong
track record and good performance in 2008. They have risk
management team in place as well though the VAR in 2009 is scary
(16% prob of losing 40 bn on a portfolio of 180 bn).
So judge for yourself, is a good investment company one who
never ever lose money (which is probablity extremely rare -- i
haven't seen one yet) or is it one that invest prudently and gives
its stakeholders a fair share of return consistently...
"To spend on free healthcare and transport would
mean there are no reserves and we will incur a budget deficit.
"
Healthcare is certainly a bigger burden than transport, but I
believe the government can lighten the burden on
citizens.
For the past 4-5 years, public hospitals have been seeing around
300,000 admissions (outpatients are about ten times as many).
Assuming all of them were citizens, and
assuming the govt hands out $10,000 to each one (feel free to
change that number, it is just a convenient one for me), it still
adds up to just $3 billion a year.
Temasek lost more than $60 billion! That sum could have gone
towards subsidizing healthcare for citizens for a couple
of decades.
People like you have an irrational fear of welfare and govt
spending. And before you or anyone else pops up with "oh, that will
require insanely high taxes," let me point out that Singapore
collected over $37 billion in taxes in 2008! Surely taking out a
couple of billion wouldn't hurt. Perhaps you think it will!