Most stable and primitive societies, such as the American
Indians before 1492 or medieval Europe, have no great population
problem because the birthrate is balanced by the death rate. In
such societies both of these are high, the population is stable,
and the major portion of that population is young (below eighteen
years of age).
This kind of society (frequently called Population Type A) is
what existed in Europe in the medieval period (say about 1400) or
even in part of the early modern period (say about 1700). As a
result of the increased supply of food in Europe after 1725, and of
men's increased ability to save lives because of advances in
sanitation and medicine after 1775, the death rate began to fall,
the birthrate remained high, the population began to increase, and
the number of older persons in the society increased.
This gave rise to what we have called the demographic explosion
(or Population Type B). As a result of it, the population of Europe
(beginning in western Europe) increased in the nineteenth century,
and the major portion of that population was in the prime of life
(ages eighteen to forty-five), the arms-bearing years for men and
the childbearing years for women.
At this point the demographic cycle of an expanding population
goes into a third stage (Population Type C) in which the birthrate
also begins to fall. The reasons for this fall in the birthrate
have never been explained in a satisfactory way, but, as a
consequence of it, there appears a new demographic condition marked
by a falling birthrate, a low death rate, and a stabilizing and
aging population whose major part is in the mature years from
thirty to sixty.
As the population gets older because of the decrease in births
and the increase in expectation of life, a larger and larger part
of the population has passed the years of hearing children or
bearing arms. This causes the birthrate to decline even more
rapidly, and eventually gives a population so old that the death
rate begins to rise again because of the great increase in deaths
from old age or from the casualties of inevitable senility.
Accordingly, the society passes into a fourth stage of the
demographic cycle (Population Type D). This stage is marked by a
declining birthrate, a rising death rate, a decreasing population,
and a population in which the major part is over fifty years of
age.
It must be confessed that the nature of the fourth stage of this
demographic cycle is based on theoretical considerations rather
than on empirical observation, because even western Europe, where
the cycle is most advanced, has not yet reached this fourth
stage.
However, it seems quite likely that it will pass into such a
stage by the year 2000, and already the increasing number of older
persons has given rise to new problems and to a new science called
geriatrics both in western Europe and in the eastern United
States.
As we have said, Europe has already experienced the first three
stages of this demographic cycle as a result of the Agricultural
Revolution after 1725 and the Sanitation-Medical Revolution after
1775. As these two revolutions have diffused outward from western
Europe to more peripheral areas of the world (the lifesaving
revolution passing the food-producing revolution in the process),
these more remote areas have entered, one by one, upon the
demographic cycle.
This means that the demographic explosion (Population Type B)
has moved outward from western Europe to Central Europe to eastern
Europe and finally to Asia and Africa. By the middle of the
twentieth century, India was fully in the grasp of the demographic
explosion, with its population shooting upward at a rate of about 5
million a year, while Japan's population rose from 55 million in
1920 to 94 million in 1960.
A fine example of the working of this process can be seen in
Ceylon where in 1920 the birthrate was 40 per thousand and the
death rate was 32 per thousand, but in 1950 the birthrate was still
at 40 while the death rate had fallen to 12. Before we examine the
impact of this development on world history in the twentieth
century let us look at two brief tables which will clarify this
process.
The demographic cycle may be divided into four stages which we
have designated by the first four letters of the alphabet. These
four stages can be distinguished in respect to four traits: the
birthrate, the death rate, the number of the population, and its
age distribution. The nature of the four stages in these four
respects can be seen in the following table:
The Demographic Cycle
Stage A B C D
Birthrate High High Falling Low
Death
rate High Falling Low Rising
Numbers
Stable Rising Stable Falling
Age
Many
young Many in
prime Many
Middle-aged Many old
Distribution (Below
18) (18-45) (Over
30) (Over
50)
The consequences of this demographic cycle (and the resulting
demographic explosion) as it diffuses outward from western Europe
to more peripheral areas of the world may be gathered from the
following table which sets out the chronology of this movement in
the four areas of western Europe, central Europe, eastern Europe,
and Asia:
Diffusion of the Demographic Cycle
Areas
Western Central Eastern
Dates Europe Europe Europe Asia
1700 A A A A
1800 B A A A
_______
1850 B
| B A A
|________________
1900 C B
| B A
|________________
1950 C C B
| B
|____________
2000 D D C B
In this table the line of greatest population pressure (the
demographic explosion of Type B population) has been marked by a
dotted line. This shows that there has been a sequence, at
intervals of about fifty years, of four successive population
pressures which might be designated with the following names:
Anglo-French
pressure, about 1850
Germanic-Italian
pressure, about 1900
Slavic
pressure, about 1950
Asiatic
pressure, about 2000
This diffusion of pressure outward
from the western European core of Western Civilization can
contribute a great deal toward a richer understanding of the period
1850-2000. It helps to explain the Anglo-French rivalry about 1850,
the Anglo-French alliance based on fear of Germany after 1900, the
free-world alliance based on fear of Soviet Russia after 1950, and
the danger to
both Western Civilization and Soviet Civilization
from Asiatic
pressure by 2000.
http://real-world-news.org/bk-quigley/01.html#2
Q: Why
are some countries suspicious of China's rising
power?
Vairon: I have two thoughts on this issue. The first is from a
common foreigner's point of view. For common foreigners,
they feel
threatened because China has a large
population.
There are Chinese people everywhere overseas. We see
Chinese people traveling and studying everywhere in the world. This
visual picture creates a sense of “threat.” We can see Chinese people in
Africa, Europe, all over, so it seems that this has created
fear. This is the feeling of common foreigners.
They feel nervous when they see Chinese people everywhere. This is
a very popular view.
The second answer is linked to the first one. Because there are so
many Chinese people, they cannot find jobs at home, and therefore
they go abroad for opportunities. Foreigners feel the Chinese
people who go overseas are taking their employment
opportunities...
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/
It helps to explain the Anglo-French rivalry about 1850, the
Anglo-French alliance based on fear of Germany after 1900, the
free-world alliance based on fear of Soviet Russia after 1950, and
the danger to both Western
Civilization and Soviet Civilization from
Asiatic pressure by
2000.