Setting record straight on Citi investment

last SG · 2009-05-09T16:58:49+00:00

Look don't take my word for it. Read the Reuters article below for example. Do your own research. Just do it intelligently and fairly, instead of having an a...

bratpig SG

Suddenly, our "financial expert" a.k.a. camb76 is silenced.

Don't throw lingo at us.

Why emphasize on Citi, which is making money now...for the time being...maybe in the long run. Why not Shin Corp, ABC, Ocptus, etc that you failed to mention?

Why the charitable act to educate us on Citibank? I do support Citi. I believe in Citi. But why is it I can wait and buy Citi at $1.03? The thing is, when they bought Citi, the market condition was damn bad. Their cronies with their framed 1st class honours should know. Why not collect their 7% dividend for the time being?

Granted, nobody can make a 100% profitable investment. We shouldn't complain.

However, do remember 1 simple thing. We work hard for our money. I don't blame anybody if I have to "save" 20% of it every month. I just don't want people telling me I should work till 82 years old then can I take my money out because you incurred losses. Even so, it is only a portion of it.

Get this clear, in every company, the board has to answer to their SHAREHOLDERS. Because we voted you to the board doesn't mean I made you GOD. You are not GOD. Even GOD has to have believers.

AndrewPKYap SG

Caution is advised with your preferred attitude and outbursts towards other persons and their families.

What goes around, will come around.

Look after your own and future generations....

There is something about life that you have to be clear about. Support evil and the curses on the evil will rub off on you. You have no choice but to curse evil when you see it. You can stay silent about it but then silence means consent. It is not as bad as active support but you must not stay silent!

AndrewPKYap SG

There is something that the people must realise and that is, if you buy when it comes down and you buy when it comes down further and you buy when it comes down even further.. you cannot, like what thread starter is doing, then claim credit when the last "buy" you make goes into the black and you conveniently forget about all the losses and your stupidity for buying and buying as it comes down and down.

Daddy!! SG

the world is going to die in 40 years and still got people bicker over GIC etc.

Camb76 SG

I'm not silenced. I just live overseas, so I had to sleep. Anyway, this post is not about the investing prowess of SWFs, whether Singapore or otherwise. It's about the Citi investment by GIC. Not everybody makes money every year in every investment. Even the great Warren Buffett lost money in his company's latest financial year. Even George Soros losses money in some investments. How you judge investment ability is about how the entire portfolio AS A WHOLE has performed over a number of years. Nonetheless, that was not my goal. I merely wrote this post to correct uninformed speculation about GIC's Citi investment.

I would have thought people would actually be happy that their country's wealth had gained!! Instead, it seems that there are people who so hate the government that they would rather have their country's wealth fall. Very sad indeed.

Everyone has a right to their opinion. I respect that. I agree that there are certainly lots of things in Singapore that could be improved. Singapore is no utopia. Then again neither is the USA, UK, China or Australia.

BUT not everyone has a right to their own FACTS. Facts are facts. Anyone who understands the details of GIC's Citi investment also understands that the investment has been very profitable. It gained 7% from the preferred stock dividends last year. And this year it has gained 23.6% alone from the capital appreciation of the common stock. Citi's stock last closed at US$4.02 in New York, so 4.02/3.25 = 1.236.

Camb76 SG

For those who are still unclear or misunderstand the terms of GIC's Citi investment, I suggest to try to ask a friend or relative who is an experienced investment banker. Maybe he/she can educate you on the issue. For those who seek comfort in opinions rather than facts, then don't bother. Think whatever you want to think.

I'll try one more time for those who really want to understand. The common stock investment in Citi by GIC was at US$3.25 a share. This was the ENTIRE invesment, there was no second or third tranche, and NO CASH was paid for the conversion. It's like you buying into a unit trust with all the fees imbedded in the price. When GIC converted it's preferred shares into common equity, Citi's stock was actually trading at US$1.67 (on Feb 27 to be precise). By converting at US$3.25, the cost of the conversion was approximately US$3.37bln or half of the entire investment, since 1.67 is half of 3.25. If you cannot understand this simple arithmetic, then I'm sorry I cannot help you any further.

But since Feb 27, Citi's share price has rallied and is now above US$4. As 4 > 3.25, there has been a profit on the capital appreciation. There were also the 7% interest income over the last year. If you cannot understand this, then I don't know how else to explain it.

Atobe SG

Was this post not obvious about the astute decision by GIC to invest in Citibank ?

Did anyone claim that everybody makes money every year in every investment, or should we not be critical to those who claimed immense wisdom to be so willing to walk into a "prostitute's den, and offer money to sleep with the prostitute - even when everyone knows the obvious signs of AIDS" ?

Yes, Warren Buffet and George Soros lost money too BUT they did not lose to the tune of 50% of their portfolios !!!

How many years do you think it will take for Singapore to recover the US$100 billion that has been lost ?

The uninformed party seems to be the TS in the manner that the article was selectively written to ignore clearly published facts, and attempt to insult the intelligence of others in the understanding of the same facts.

How do you see the country's wealth gaining, when Singapore lost US$100 Billion from the various investment portfolios committed by GIC and Temasek ?

Yes everyone has a right to their opinion, as well the right to rebut what is obviously wrong.

While USA, UK, China or Australia are no utopia - at least the governments of these countries are not arrogant to believe themselves to be elites of the community.

China's Communist Government Leaders see themselves as Public Servants and not as the Meritocratic Elites from their large community.

The political leadership of the USA, UK and Australia are subject to change in a political process that is clearly transparent, accountable, and independent from manipulation by the Political Party in office.

If you respect the opinion of others, the least you can do is respect others without the snide remarks.

Facts are facts - how you have twisted the facts through interpretation in some skewed ways will result in tainted data that become NO LONGER "facts".

The facts are clear that GIC paid US$26.35 per share that led them to pump into Citibank a total sum of US$6.88 BILLION.

The value of that US$26.35 PER SHARE plummeted to US$3.25 PER SHARE - causing the original invested sum to be worth only US$1.5 BILLION - and all happening in less then one year.

Are you expecting anyone to swallow that loss and rejoice in the small gain in the stock market trading price from US$3.25 to US$3.81 ?

Note that the investment by GIC into CitiBank was based on Preferred Shares that would have guaranteed an annual return of 7%.

This is now NO LONGER available, as the only Preferred Stock Holder is now the US GOVERNMENT - who will be paid 8% annually, and on top of that if there are any profits made by Citibank, the US Treasury will have to be paid US$1.25 BILLION annually at 5% interest for the additional US$25 Billion that was loan to Citibank.

Meanwhile, like all the other Ordinary Shareholders - the Singapore GIC original "preferred shares" are now converted to Ordinary Shares that will only be paid US$0.01 per share - AND SUBJECT to the approval by the US Government.

How long do you think we have to wait to recover the original investment value of US$6.88 billion ?

Even if we were to wait for the US Stock Exchange to recover, can Citibank return to its glorious value of above US$26.

As matters stand, in the recently conducted means test by the US Treasury on 19 banks, only 9 banks got through while 10 others failed.

Citibank was amongst the 10 that failed and will have to collectively find new investors to pump in a total of US$75 BILLION to allow them to continue to operate.

These are the hard facts that will have to be faced - do you know the values of money before you attempt to teach and comment on the abilities of others ?

Camb76 SG

Look I'm not paid to shout the glories of the Singapore PAP government. In fact, I agree with the general sentiment that Singapore's investment portfolio should be transparent, along the lines of Norway. But I have nothing further to add about GIC's Citi investment. I have laid out all the facts. If you or anyone else don't want to believe it, fine. You are, as I said, entitled to your own opinions, even if they are based on erroneous "facts." I tried to educate and evidently I failed in your case. The Internet is full of "facts" to support anybody's argument, including people who believe in space aliens or White supremacy. I would merely suggest that people don't believe whatever they read online. Don't want to believe me, fine. I can't be bothered in the least.

But at least consult a qualified expert in complicated matters one is not qualified in. Just like if you got some illness, you check it with a medical expert. Investments can be complicated matters.

Atobe SG

But at least consult a qualified expert in complicated matters one is not qualified in. Just like if you got some illness, you check it with a medical expert. Investments can be complicated matters.

When one is in self-denial and insist in believing that sewer water is clean water - can anyone stop you from forming a wrong opinion ?

The data is clearly printed.

Singapore's investment of US$6.88 BILLION has dropped to US$1.5 BILLION.

How many ways do you want to interprete this as a gain ?

The facts are also clear that the GIC Preferred Stocks - suppose to enjoy a rate of return of 7% - are now merely ORDINARY SHARES that will be lucky if the US Government allow a dividend of US$0.01 per share to be paid annually.

This payout will be only AFTER the US Government get paid their 8% return on their Preferred Stocks, and the return of US$1.25 Billion annually with a 5% interest for the loan given.

Should we be satisfied with the outcome of the original investment of paying US$26.35 per share in the Preferred Stocks - that has now been forced by circumstances to become Ordinary Shares ?

These are the facts that have to be considered, not the speculative progress in the daily ups and downs of the share price reflected in the trading at the NYSE.

You can make this simple facts as complicated as you want - but it will remain as clear and simple data that are easily digested with some common sense.

maxtor SG

just like to add ...

1) is there any evidence that GIC converted their holdings of preferred shares to common equity at their preferred share buy in price? I have tried to read newspaper articles but there was some ambiguity. Reason for me asking - preferred shares are like bonds, and like bonds they are principally guaranteed ONLY IF you hold them to maturity. ie. u buy a $100 5 yr bond, you will get $100 back 5 years later. But that does not guarantee that if you decide to sell the bond 2 years later from purchase, you will get back the $100 you initially invested.

I understand that other agencies, ie the US government are given Citi preferred shares yielding 8%. That being the case, GIC's investment yielding 7% should be worth less than the US government's investment - thereby reducing its value. Should GIC convert their preferred shares to common equity at the then present value of their preferred shares, didn't they already make a loss on their investment?

2) GIC was forced to convert their preferred shares to ordinary shares. It was our newspapers that glorified their actions by boasting that '' GIC cuts loss in one fell swoop''. The fact is Citi announced the stoppage of dividend payments for preferred shareholders, which meant GIC would lose their 7% annual payout.They then offered the current preferred shareholders ordinary equity. This action was meant to beautify Citi's balance sheet and make it look like its tier 1 capital and shareholder equity is comfortably boosted, even though it involves no exchange or additional input of cash.At the same time, it also removes the liability of paying the mandatory preferred dividend on Citi's balance sheet.

3) Ordinary shareholders suffer from greater volatility from share price movements than their preferred share counterparts. Ordinary shareholders also receive their dividends AFTER the preferred shareholders and even then, their dividend payout is not a fixed one but instead dictated annually. If GIC's initial investment principle was to get a recurring income from Citi's investment, why the sudden turnaround?

Daddy!! SG

very simple. the market cap of Citi at 3.25 would be around US$ 17.9 billions. After converting into common equity, how many % does GIC own Citi? Take this % and multiply by 17.9 billion would be the investment value, $ x. The loss would then be $6.88 billions minus $x.

Daddy!! SG

"GIC said its stake in Citi would rise to an estimated 11.1 percent."

in this case, $x = 0.111 multiplied by 17.9 billions = about US$ 1.99 billion. The loss is about 6.88 - 1.99 = US$ 4.89 billions !!!

deepak.c SG

Ok ok.

We won $1 but lost $100.

This a real consolation.

Pennywise but pound foolish.

angel7030 SG

But at least consult a qualified expert in complicated matters one is not qualified in. Just like if you got some illness, you check it with a medical expert. Investments can be complicated matters.

Hahahaha,....hahahahhaha...!!! afterall, i am not the only one who said that to my Uncle...wow! Nice post

charlize SG

I checked out the details of this investment over the internet to try to undertand more about what this investment was about. Prior to this forced conversion, they were staring at a paper loss of 5 billion dollars from their original 6 over billion investment in the preferred stock. In a sense they were actually lucky that they managed to reduce their paper loss to just 1 over billion once they converted to common equity.

The only downside to this conversion was that as common equity shareholders, their investment could potentially go to zero if citibank collapsed ie share price goes to zero.

charlize SG

Oh yeah, the number details are in atobe's post above.

Camb76 SG

It amazes me how ignorance feeds upon itself in these blogs. Truly in the country of the blind, the one-eyed men are kings. I promised I would not comment further on GIC's Citi investment, and I am a man of my word.

Instead, since people on these blogs appear enamoured of cutting-and-pasting various things they find on the Internet to support their arguments, I can play that game too. But I will challenge you. Instead of cutting-and-pasting any silly old online article I find, I will do it without bias. After all, you can find thousands of websites that claim White people are superior to Asians and blacks! So if you read that, you will believe it unquestioningly?

Anyone operating in the global financial markets know that the top financial news providers are Bloomberg, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. I have already posted the Reuters article reporting the Citi preferred to conversion deal earlier in this thread. I will now post the Bloomberg and WSJ articles on the deal. I can't get the FT article because you need an online subscription to get access, and I do not have one. I am laying down all the cards on the table. Those who are trule open-minded can then judge for themselves whether anything I have said about this topic is true or false.

In fact, I challenge anyone to refute me on the facts of the Citi investment as I have stated.

Camb76 SG

Citi Rescue Gives Prince, Singapore Sweeter Terms: David Reilly

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- It’s good to be a Saudi prince. And it’s good to be an investment company backed by the government of Singapore, or a former Citigroup chief executive. For that you get favored treatment from Citigroup Inc.

It’s not so pleasant to be an average investor, say a mutual fund or insurer holding the retirement savings of average Americans. Then you just might get a kick in your keister.

That is what seems set to happen with at least one part of Citigroup’s latest bailout plan, announced Friday. The effort to shore up its finances calls for the conversion of up to $52.5 billion of preferred stock, including a big portion held by the U.S. government, into common stock.

The issue is the conversion terms. Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Alsaud, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Pte Ltd. and a few other big holders of convertible preferred stock such as former Citigroup Chief Executive Sanford Weill and his family trust could get a better deal than many run-of-the-mill investors who hold regular preferred stock.

That shouldn’t be happening when U.S. taxpayers are propping up Citi and therefore preventing the prince and others from seeing their investments in the bank completely wiped out. It also stokes a perception that financial markets are increasingly becoming a rigged game.

Favored Shareholders

Besides being a big holder of preferred stock, the prince is Citi’s third-largest common shareholder, with a 4 percent stake; the Singapore sovereign wealth fund isn’t a big common holder but bought about $6.9 billion in convertible preferred stock in January 2008.

They and others, including Weill and his foundation, purchased $12.5 billion of convertible preferred stock in January 2008 as Citi turned to private sources to raise capital in the face of mounting losses.

Other investors hold about $15 billion in preferred stock, according to data from CreditSights.

The preferred stockholders -- the big, favored shareholders like the prince as well as other investors -- pretty much have to convert. If they don’t, their preferred stock will cease to pay dividends and likely become almost worthless.

The issue has to do with the way Citi will calculate the value of the preferred stock being converted into common shares.

The government plans to convert up to $25 billion of its preferred stock in Citigroup into common stock at a price of $3.25 a share. If the full amount is converted, the government would receive 7.7 billion new shares in Citi.

VIP Investors

The same formula will apply for the VIP preferred holders. The conversion price will be $3.25 a share, and the number of shares they receive will be derived by dividing the face value of their holding by that price.

The regular-Joe preferred holders won’t get as good a deal, according to a term sheet provided by Citi. These investors will receive new common stock based on the $3.25 conversion price divided into a value for the preferred that the bank only describes as being a “premium to market.”

In other words, the government and the big-time holders will see their converted shares based upon the full face value of their holdings. Regular investors will get less.

Who are the investors who stand to get short-changed? They include fund managers like Fidelity Management & Research and T. Rowe Price Group Inc., and insurers like Cincinnati Insurance Co. and Guardian Life Insurance Co., according to Bloomberg data. Another may turn out to be the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which in November 2007 bought trust preferred securities that will have to convert into common stock at a later date.

Camb76 SG

Citi gives public preferred 5%-15% conversion haircut

By Marshall Eckblad, Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Owners of publicly traded preferred stock in Citigroup Inc. will take a haircut of 5% to 15% when they exchange their shares into common stock of Citigroup at $3.25 per share.

The discount imposed on public preferred shareholders values the shares above the market price at which the preferred shares were trading before the deal was announced. Still, the pricing of the exchange, disclosed Monday, reveals that some preferred shareholders are more preferred than others in the deal.

Holders of the private preferred, who are getting a better price, include the U.S. and Singaporean governments, as well as Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal. Those investors will exchange preferred shares at par value, or the shares' original purchase price.

Citi had indicated Friday that, in contrast to owners of privately placed preferred stock, the public preferreds wouldn't get to exchange for Citi stock at their preferred shares' par value. Citi said only that the final price would be at a yet undisclosed "premium to market," and some investors anticipated facing a steeper discount to the shares' original purchase price.

Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer of ValueWorks LLC, a New York money manager, was worried Friday that Citigroup was going to shortchange retail investors, offering them inferior terms if they converted their preferred shares to common stock. But the details of the offering, which Citigroup disclosed in a regulatory filing Monday, turned out not to be so bad. The terms are "awfully close to fair and nothing to make hay over," Mr. Lemonides said.

A source who requested anonymity said the U.S. Treasury asked Citi to discount the value that public holders would receive in order to get the most out of its taxpayer-funded investment to bail out Citi.

Citi will convert all the applicable preferred shares into common stock at $3.25 apiece. A person familiar with the matter said the price was calculated using a 20-day moving average price.

Citi said today in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that holders of Series F, Series AA and Series E preferred stock - representing about $11.8 billion of the total - will be offered 95% of the liquidation value, while Series T holders - representing about $3.2 billion - will be offered 85%.

In treating its preferred shareholders differently, Citi, and even the U.S. Treasury, may be signaling that it will give better terms to private investors willing to take a large stake in recovering financial firms. At the same time, the relatively small haircuts may be an effort to show investors in preferred shares that they will not suffer dire consequences should the government purchase common stock in a firm.

Other reasons for treating the different shareholders differently may include ensuring the cooperation of the private holders, which would leave the government with a smaller stake. The U.S. government struck a deal with Citigroup last week to convert a large portion of its preferred shares in Citi into common shares. The government will own about 36% of the New York bank.

On Friday, Citigroup said it would offer to exchange up to $52.5 billion of its existing preferred shares for common stock worth $3.25 each. In order to induce investors into exchanging preferred shares into common shares, the bank said it would suspend all dividends paid to common and preferred shares, with the exception of trust preferred securiti

Camb76 SG

This is Citi's actual news release on the deal:

February 27, 2009

Citi to Exchange Preferred Securities for Common, Increasing Tangible Common Equity to as Much as $81 Billion

New York – Citi today announced it will issue common stock in exchange for preferred securities, which will substantially increase its tangible common equity (TCE) without any additional U.S. government investment. The transaction is intended to build Citi's TCE to a level that removes uncertainty and restores investor confidence in the company.

Citi will offer to exchange common stock for up to $27.5 billion of its existing preferred securities and trust preferred securities at a conversion price of $3.25 a share. The U.S. government will match this exchange up to a maximum of $25 billion face value of its preferred stock at the same conversion price. (See attached transaction summary).

Citi Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said, "This securities exchange has one goal – to increase our tangible common equity. While we believe Tier 1 capital remains the most important measure of the financial strength of banks, we recognize that the markets also view Tangible Common Equity as an important measure. This transaction – which requires no additional investment from U.S. taxpayers – does not change Citi's strategy, operations or governance. Our clients and partners will not be affected and will continue to receive the high level of service they expect from Citi around the world."

This transaction could increase the TCE of the company from the fourth quarter level of $29.7 billion to as much as $81 billion, which assumes the exchange of $27.5 billion of preferred securities, the maximum eligible under this transaction. Citi's Tier 1 capital ratio is 11.9 percent as of December 31, 2008, and is among the highest of major banks. This ratio is not impacted by this transaction.

Based on the maximum eligible conversion, the U.S. government would own approximately 36 percent of Citi's outstanding common stock and existing shareholders would own approximately 26 percent of the outstanding shares. All investors' new stakes will be determined following the exchange.

Citi will offer to exchange:

    * Interim securities and warrants for privately held convertible preferred securities;
    * Interim securities and warrants for U.S. government-held preferred securities; and
    * Common stock for publicly held convertible and non-convertible preferred securities.

The interim securities will convert to common stock, subject to shareholder authorization of the additional common stock needed for the transaction. The interim securities are common stock equivalent. The warrants entitle the holders to purchase shares of Citi common stock at $0.01 a share if such shareholder authorization is not obtained. If shareholder authorization is not received, the interim securities will pay a 9 percent dividend that will increase quarterly.

The non-U.S. government exchange will accommodate all preferred stock holders other than trust preferred holders. The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Pte Ltd., HRH Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Alsaud, Capital Research Global Investors, Capital World Investors and other investors have said they will participate in the exchange. Depending upon the participation rate in the exchange, holders of Trust Preferred Securities (TruPs) and Enhanced Trust Preferred Securities (ETruPs) may also be eligible to participate.

The U.S. government will exchange the portion of its existing preferred securities that is not exchanged for common shares into new trust preferred securities. These securities will carry an annual coupon of 8 percent.

In connection with the transactions, Citi will suspend dividends on its preferred shares. As a result, the common stock dividend also will be suspended. The company will continue to pay the distribution on its Trust Preferred Securities and Enhanced Trust Preferred Securities at the current rates.

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