'Qantas wil be dead in 6 mon':Ctr for Asia-Pacific Aviation

lionnoisy SG

summary--1.share price drops 75 % fr peak,Qantas just down graded,

1H 2009 will be in red,

2.why did Qantas need to issue share in March 2009,when Qan hold in cash or cash equivalent amounting to A$3 billions?

3.The total of selected items of current and non-current cash/equivalent

is smaller than liability by A$ 5.5 billions!!.

4.Qantas needs to contribute A$66 m in next the 3 years to Employee Superannual,

like SG CPF!!

'Qantas will be dead in six months'

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sgstars gives us a new meaning a bias.

Bias mean correct info but bias mindset.ha ha.

i think any dictionary publisher shall recruit sgstars as editor.

Now go back to this thread.

Share price

The clue of pink of health of any company

is the share price.Qantas's share dropped 75 % from its peak in late 2007.

It just announced that ''operating profit between $100m and $200m''.

for its 2008/09 year (Jul 08 to jun 09).

''The carrier is effectively informing the market that it will make a substantial operating loss in the first six months of 2009 (2H09 for Qantas’ financial year), after having reported a net profit of AUD216 million in the first half of the financial year.''

http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2009/04/14/qantas-announces-profit-downgrade-and-severe-cutbacks-while-airasia-expands-and-shares-rise/page1

So,wat do u think the share price will be heading?

Why Qantas is much lower than the oZ stock market?

http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/mkt/interactiveChart.ac?idx=XAO

Qantas code is QAN.

u can see Australia All Ord went back to April 2005 level,but Qantas

is currently 45 % below April 2005 level.

Qantas disputed down grading

Many Investors lose truths on these Rating agencies.

However,the rating is still very important.

''Qantas fell 5c to $1.95 after Standard & Poor's lowered its corporate credit ratings on the airline to 'BBB/A-3' from 'BBB+/A- 2'.''--link see above

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/fixedincome/Ratings_Definitons.pdf

Qantas disputes the down grading.

How far the Kangaroo can jump?

'Qantas will be dead in six months'

''QANTAS will no longer exist in its current form if the downturn that is crippling the industry lasts another six months, one of Australia's leading aviation experts has claimed.

Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation director Peter Harbison said that a currently unprofitable Qantas faces being gutted and reconstructed around a more profitable Jetstar model.

He also told The Daily Telegraph yesterday that the 3300 jobs already axed at the airline would be easily superceded in the coming months if conditions did not improve.....''

lionnoisy SG

This is not a Tom,Dick and Harry team.

Besides,this is not easy for a oz daily to quote this kind of bad prediction

on national carrier.

Fryderyk HPH SG

summary--share price drops 75 % fr peak,Qantas just down graded,

1H 2009 will be in red,

'Qantas will be dead in six months'

@@@@@@@@@@@@

sgstars gives us a new meaning a bias.

Bias mean correct info but bias mindset.ha ha.

i think any dictionary publisher shall recruit sgstars as editor.

Now go back to this thread.

Share price

The clue of pink of health of any company

is the share price.Qantas's share dropped 75 % from its peak in late 2007.

It just announced that ''operating profit between $100m and $200m''.

for its 2008/09 year (Jul 08 to jun 09).

http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2009/04/14/qantas-announces-profit-downgrade-and-severe-cutbacks-while-airasia-expands-and-shares-rise/page1

So,wat do u think the share price will be heading?

Why Qantas is much lower than the oZ stock market?

http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/mkt/interactiveChart.ac?idx=XAO

Qantas disputed down grading

Many Investors lose truths on these Rating agencies.

However,the rating is still very important.

''Qantas fell 5c to $1.95 after Standard & Poor's lowered its corporate credit ratings on the airline to 'BBB/A-3' from 'BBB+/A- 2'.''--link see above

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/fixedincome/Ratings_Definitons.pdf

Qantas disputes the down grading.

How far the Kangaroo can jump?

'Qantas will be dead in six months'

Should be moved to the Global Civil Aviation Forum.

Reason for big loss is becoz there is a huge sudden drop in demand for First and Biz class pax(the main revenue source for perhaps any non-LCC airline) these days. SQ is also not spared. Drop of something like 21% of loads, mostly from the seats up front. Cargo is also less. Look at the world markets and you will find a strong relation to the growth of their national carriers(assuming they are not grossly mismanaged).

angel7030 SG

When SIA wanted to buy them long ago, they dun wan, now this Proud kangeroo find it own end. Dun worry, before they go down, sure they will lower their price, someone will still buy from them, these Ozies like to fly alot too. But after buying, the kangeroo may no more be the icon of the carriers, i bet a Darwin Crocs will take over, decendent of crocodile dundee. Yeah!!

Fryderyk HPH SG

Wrong. SIA bought over ANZ(Air New Zealand). Failed investment so to speak. ANZ itself acquired Ansett Australia(now Bankrupt). ANZ is "smaller" than Ansett and couldn't control its subsidiary. Ansett made massive losses and ANZ was forced to spin off Ansett. At no point in time was SIA wanting to buy that stupid Australian kangaroo. SIA had wanted to make inroads into the Australian market in the early 90s, and wanted to use Ansett. By the mid 90s when the catastrophic collapse of Ansett was imminent, SIA decided to pull out of all investment in Australia(and now ANZ too).

AndrewPKYap SG

Quantas can die but Australia will continue to thrive.... they own a whole continent, remember?

Fryderyk HPH SG

Quantas can die but Australia will continue to thrive.... they own a whole continent, remember?

!!!

lionnoisy SG

Should be moved to the Global Civil Aviation Forum.

There is great interest in oz,including the fate of the national carrier.

Many have said there are many SG migrants alreday in oz and there are much

more going to migrate to Down Under.I am doing a good deed here

to give them some hints what are reality in Oz.

Why profitables but share prices keep on dropping?

http://www.qantas.com.au/info/about/investors/fullYearResults2007

For the years ending June 07 and June 08,profits after tax were

A$720 m and 970 m respectively.Dividend were 30 cents and 17 cents.

so ,wat will happen when the year ending June 2009 facing

''operating profit between $100m and $200m''?

Qantas needs some extra ordinary transaction to window shopping the books.

angel7030 SG

oh, me wrong again, Aiya, sometime like this lah, i remember once there was talk of selling Qantas, but because of OZies protectism policies and pressure from it Kangaroo babies, it was not agreed upon. Now how>. at least i started the ball rolling rite? Not kangeroos fly the wannabe Wobats lah. OZies are like their Koala Bear, alway lazy and sleep alots...me go sleep liao,,cuddle my koala bear bear...

lionnoisy SG

Profits before tax (PBT) drops from 1032 m ,1408 m to 100 to 200m

In the 2 previous years end June 07 and 08,PBT were 1032m and 1408 m respectively.

For year ending june 09,PBT has just been revised down fr 500 m to

100 to 200 m!!

http://www.qantas.com.au/info/about/investors/fullYearResults2008

http://www.qantas.com.au/regions/dyn/au/publicaffairs/details?ArticleID=2009/apr09/3911

lionnoisy SG

peak at late 2007 was about $5.6.

Qantas share price

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=QUBSF&time=12&freq=1&comp=&compidx=aaaaa~0&compind=&uf=0&ma=&maval=&lf=1&lf2=&lf3=&type=2&size=1&txtstyle=&style=&submitted=true&intflavor=basic&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp

angel7030 SG

There is great interest in oz,including the fate of the national carrier.

Many have said there are many SG migrants alreday in oz and there are much

more going to migrate to Down Under.I am doing a good deed here

to give them some hints what are reality in Oz.

Why profitables but share prices keep on dropping?

http://www.qantas.com.au/info/about/investors/fullYearResults2007

For the years ending June 07 and June 08,profits after tax were

A$720 m and 970 m respectively.Dividend were 30 cents and 17 cents.

so ,wat will happen when the year ending June 2009 facing

''operating profit between $100m and $200m''?

Qantas needs some extra ordinary transaction to window shopping the books.

Dun worry, the Ozies will bail them out, afterall the Ozies cannot loose face, Qantas was once the most famous Airlines in Asia, but now a limping kangeroo. Sure to get Bail out from Aust treasury, which is also OZies and all those immigrant tax money

lionnoisy SG

one more down grade become junk bond

good news is Qantas has A$ 3 billion cash or cash equivalent in hand!!

I am wandering why did Qan issue 28 millin shares at 2.5 % discount in March,

reda below.

when Qan was very cash rich.Do this item containing any non--pure

assets aka toxic assets.sorry to say this.Nowadays,cash equivalent can

include anythings under the sun--from shares,to CDO and somethings

i also dunt know.ha ha....

''Qantas would need to fall one more level from BBB before hitting junk status. Ms Zhong did not rule out taking Qantas down another notch in future. "A further rating downgrade could occur if the industry downturn deepens," she said.

But she also pointed to the airline's "good liquidity and financial flexibility, which mitigate to a certain extent the airline's expected weaker credit metrics".

She noted S&P's negative rating outlook reflected "the tough trading conditions facing the airline industry globally, including uncertainty surrounding the depth and duration of the current recession". S&P was concerned about "a weak outlook for premium-segment revenue", from areas such as business class travel.

But Ian Lewis, a Moody's senior analyst, maintained a stable outlook, saying Qantas's financial profile "should remain manageable within the rating at this stage of the economic cycle, unless global and domestic conditions deteriorate more sharply ... than currently anticipated".''

lionnoisy SG

i dunt understand the ''Funds From operations'' to ''Adjusted Debt (net of surplus cash)''

falls below 25 % in the 3 rd paragraph here

PDF.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=QAN#headlines

lionnoisy SG

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=QAN&timeframe=Y&year=2008

15/04/2009 asterix Credit Rating Agency Press Releases 4 PDF

lionnoisy SG

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http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=QAN#headlines

Qantas just issued new shares of 28 million at A$1.56 per share and at 2.5% discount!!

compared with the currrent 2.2 billions shares.it is peanut.

why did Qantas need to issue share,when Qan hold in cash or cash equivalent amounting to A$3 billions?

Does Qan need cash urgently?

24/03/2009 Appendix 3B 7 PDF

lionnoisy SG

Quantas can die but Australia will continue to thrive.... they own a whole continent, remember?

do u know rice production in oz drops from 1 million tons to 21,000 tons!!

dunt judge a book by its cover!!

''All the while, the lifelong farmer watched as national production of rice dropped from more than a million tons a year to 21,000, contributing to the food shortage being felt across the globe.''

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/04/murray-darling/draper-text/11

http://ngm.typepad.com/blog_central/2009/03/australian-drought-takes-its-toll.html

lionnoisy SG

oz Debt Issurance boss just performed road show in middle east to sell IOU,

aka Treasury Bond.Where do they get the cash to bail out Flying Kangaroo?

http://www.aofm.gov.au/content/publications/speeches.asp

Presentation: Australian Government Investor Briefing - CEO Presentation at HSBC

Issuer and Investor Summit, Dubai.

lionnoisy SG

17 - 20 March 2009 - Australian Government Investor Briefing – CEO Presentation at HSBC Issuer and Investor Summit, Dubai.

lionnoisy SG

The total of selected items of current and non-current cash/equivalent

is smaller than liability by A$ 5.5 billions!!.

Financial year end....................June 2008...Jun 2007

Assets--selected items

Cash and cash equivalents ......2,599.0 m....3 ,362.9m
Receivables .............................1,434.9 m....1 ,376.8m

Receivables,................................... 531.8m.... 372.7m

------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL----------------------------------4,567 m......5,112 m

Liabilities--selected items
Payables ..............................2,173.9 million... .2 ,005.7 million
Revenue received in advance 3,267.2 m .....3 ,049.3 m

Non-current liabilities
Revenue received in advance ....1,082.6m............ 1 ,049.7m
Interest-bearing liabilities ............3,572.8m......... 4 ,210.9m

__________________________________________________--

TOTAL .........................................10,096m............10,315.6

Differences......................................5529 m..............5203 m