War, Oil and Gas Pipelines: Turkey is Washington’s
Geopolitical Pivot
by F. William Engdahl
The recent visit of US President Obama to Turkey was
far more significant than the President’s speech would suggest. For
Washington Turkey today has become a geopolitical “pivot state”
which is in the position to tilt the Eurasian power equation
towards Washington or significantly away from it depending on how
Turkey develops its ties with Moscow and its role regarding key
energy pipelines.
If Ankara decides to collaborate more closely
with Russia, Georgia's position is precarious and Azerbaijan's
natural gas pipeline route to Europe, the so-called Nabucco
Pipeline, is blocked. If it cooperates with the United States and
manages to reach a stable treaty with Armenia under US auspices,
the Russian position in the Caucasus is weakened and an alternative
route for natural gas to Europe opens up, decreasing Russian
leverage against Europe.
For Washington the key to bringing Germany into closer cooperation
with the US is to weaken German dependence on Russian energy flows.
Twice in the past three winters Washington has covertly incited its
hand-picked President in Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko to arrange an
arbitrary cut off of Russian gas flows to Germany and other EU
destinations.
The only purpose of the actions was to convince
EU governments that Russia was not a reliable energy partner. Now,
with the Obama visit to Ankara, Washington is attempting to win
Turkish support for its troubled Nabucco alternative gas pipeline
through Turkey from Azerbaijan which would theoretically at least
lessen EU dependence on Russian gas.
The Turkish-EU problem
However
willing Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan might be to accommodate
Obama, the question of Turkish relations with the EU is
inextricably linked with the troublesome issue of Turkish
membership to the EU, a move vehemently opposed by France and also
less openly by Germany.
Turkey is one of the only routes energy
from new sources can cross to Europe from the Middle East, Central
Asia or the Caucasus. If Turkey — which has considerable influence
in the Caucasus, Central Asia, Ukraine, the Middle East and the
Balkans — is prepared to ally with the United States, Russia is on
the defensive and German ties to Russia weaken
considerably.
If Turkey
decides to cooperate with Russia instead, Russia retains the
initiative and Germany is dependent on Russian
energy. Since it became clear in Moscow that US strategy was to
extend NATO to Russia’s front door via Ukraine and Georgia, Russia
has moved to use its economic “carrot” its vast natural gas
resources, to at the very least neutralize Western Europe,
especially Germany, towards Russia. It is notable in that regard
that the man chosen as Russia’s President in December 1999 had
spent a significant part of his KGB career in Germany.
Turkey and the US
Game
It is becoming clear that Obama and Washington are
playing a deeper game. A few weeks before the meetings, when it had
become obvious that the Europeans were not going to bend on the
issues such as troops for Afghanistan or more economic stimulus
that concerned the United States, Obama scheduled the trip to
Turkey.
During the recent EU meetings in Prague Obama actively backed
Turkey’s application for EU membership knowing well that that put
especially France and Germany in a difficult position as EU
membership would allow free migration which many EU countries
fear.
Obama deliberately confronted EU states with this
knowing he was playing with geopolitical fire, especially as the US
is no member of the EU. It was a deliberate and cheap way to score
points with the Erdogan government of Turkey.
During the NATO meeting, a key item on the agenda was the selection
of a new alliance secretary-general. The favorite was former Danish
Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Turkey opposed him because of
his defense of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed published in
a Danish magazine.
NATO operates on consensus, so any one member can
block Rasmussen. The Turks backed off the veto, and in return won
two key positions in NATO, including that of deputy
secretary-general.
Turkey thereby
boosted its standing in NATO, got Obama to vigorously defend the
Turkish application for membership in the European Union, which of
course the United States does not belong to. Obama then went to
Turkey for a key international meeting that will allow him to
further position the United States in relation to Islam.
During US-Russian talks there had been no
fundamental shift by Obama from the earlier position of the Bush
Administration. Russia rejects Washington’s idea of pressuring
IUran on their nuclear program in return for a bargain of an
undefined nature with Washington over US planned missile and radar
bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.
The US claimed it need not rely on Russia to bring
military and other supplies into Afghanistan, claiming it had
reached agreement with Ukraine to transship mililtary supplies, a
move designed by Washington to increase friction between Moscow and
Kiew.
Moreover, the NATO communique did not abandon the
idea of Ukraine and Georgia being admitted to NATO. The key
geopolitical prize for Washington remains Moscow but clearly Turkey
is being wooed by Obama to play a role in that game.
Germany will clearly not join Obama in blocking Russia. Not only
does Germany depend on Russia for energy supplies. She has no
desire to confront a Russia that Berlin sees as no real immediate
threat to Germany. For Berlin, at least now, they are not going to
address the Russian question.
At the same time, an extremely important event between Turkey and
Armenia is shaping up. Armenians had long held Turkey responsible
for the mass murder of Armenians during and after World War I, a
charge the Turks have denied. The US Congress is considering a
provocative resolution condeming “Turkish genocide” agianst
Armenians.
Turkey is highly sensitive to these charges, and
Congressional passage of such a resolution would have meant a
Turkish break in diplomatic relations with Washington. Now since
the Obama visit Ankara has begun to discuss an agreement with
Armenia including diplomatic relations which would eliminate the
impact of any potential US Congress resolution.
A Turkish opening to Armenia would alter the
balance of power in the entire region. Since the August 2008
Georgia-Russia conflict the Caucasus, a strategically vital area to
Moscow has been unstable. Russian troops remain in South Ossetia.
Russia also has troops in Armenia meaning Russia has Georgia
surrounded.
Turkey is the
key link in this complex game of geopolitical balance of power
between Washington and Moscow. If Turkey decides to collaborate
with Russia Georgia’s position becomes very insecure and
Azerbaijan’s possible pipeline route to Europe is
blocked.
If Turkey decides to cooperate with Washington and
at the same time reaches a stable agreement with Armenia under US
guidance, Russia’s entire position in the Caucasus is weakened and
an alternative route for natural gas to Europe becomes available,
reducing Russian leverage against Western Europe.
Therefore, having sat through fruitless meetings with the
Europeans, Obama chose not to cause a pointless confrontation with
a Europe that is out of options. Instead, Obama completed his trip
by going to Turkey to discuss what the treaty with Armenia means
and to try to convince the Turks to play for high stakes by
challenging Russia in the Caucasus, rather than playing Russia's
junior partner.
The most important Obama speech in his European
tour came after Turkey won key posts in the NATO political
structure with US backing. In his speech Obama sided with Turkey
against the EU and in effect showed Turkey Washington was behind
her. Obama’s speech addressed Turkey as an emerging regional power,
which was well received in Ankara. The sweet words will cost Turkey
dearly if it acts on them.
Moscow is not
sitting passively by as Washington woos Turkey.
Turkish President Abdullah Gul paid a four-day visit to the
Russian Federation this February, where he met with President
Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Putin, and also traveled to Kazan,
the capital of Tatarstan, where he discussed joint
investments.
Gul was accompanied
by his minister for foreign trade and minister of energy, as well
as a large delegation of Turkish businessmen. The stakes in this
complex three-way Great Game for domination of Eurasia have been
raised significantly following the Obama trip to Ankara. Turkey
imports 65 percent of its natural gas and 25 percent of its oil
from Russia. Therefore, Turkey is also developing a growing
dependency on Russian energy resources, including coal.
On March 27, 2009, a
memorandum was signed between the Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR and
Russia's Gazprom. The memorandum includes a statement of
deliveries, beginning in January 2010, of Azerbaijani natural gas
to Russia.
Gazprom was
particularly interested in signing such an agreement with
Azerbaijan, not the least because Azerbaijan is the only state
outside Iran or Turkmenistan, both of which are problematic, that
could supply gas to the planned EU Nabucco pipeline, for
transporting natural gas from Azerbaijan and the Central Asia
states through Turkey to south-eastern Europe. In reality, gas may
come only from Azerbaijan.
Russia has proposed
an alternative to Nabucco project, South Stream, also in need of
Azerbaijani gas, so in effect Russia weakens the chances of
realization of Nabucco. Obama strategy is clearly not less
confrontational with Russia. It is merely playing with a slightly
different deck of cards than did Cheney and Bush.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13171