Crisis spoils Singapore
celebrations
Thursday, 12 February 2009 John Burton
Financial Times
When an apparently deranged man in Singapore
set fire to his parliamentary representative at a community event
recently, a local website polled its readers to ask which of them
deserved more sympathy. By a four-to-one margin, the
readers voted for the assailant.
The episode
appears to reflect an undercurrent of public discontent with the
People’s Action party (PAP) government, which
celebrates its 50th anniversary in power this year, as Singapore
confronts its worst postwar recession, with the economy expected to
contract by up to 5 per cent.
The PAP government has long been one of Asia’s most secure.
Singapore’s dominant one-party system has set an example for
countries such as China, Russia and the Gulf states. Their leaders
“are picking up points here and there” about how Singapore can
“keep its ruling party in place and run a tight ship, honest and
effective”, says Lee Kuan Yew, the city state’s founding
father.
But the economic crisis is putting Singapore’s
political system to its severest test since independence in 1965.
“Officials appear
scared about the public reaction. I’ve never seen them so concerned
before,” said a Singapore-based regional political
analyst.
The economic downturn threatens to expose some of Singapore’s
vulnerabilities, including a wide gap between rich and poor and a
heavy dependence on foreign investment for growth.
The recession also comes at a challenging time, when the city state
must find new manufacturing industries to replace the declining
electronics sector and as it embarks on an ambitious plan to become
the Monaco of Asia, with private banking and gambling as growth
sectors.
The PAP has stayed in power because of an implicit social bargain
that it would deliver prosperity in return for restrictions on
political freedoms. It has justified its strong rule by saying that
liberal democracy could prove divisive in a multi-ethnic society
such as Singapore, with its ethnic Chinese, Malay and Indian
populations.
Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister and son of Lee Kuan Yew,
recently praised one-party rule for promoting administrative
efficiency and good policymaking, compared with malfunctioning”
Asian democracies such as Taiwan, with a troubled economy,
polarised politics and widespread corruption.
“I don’t think you want that kind of political system in
Singapore,” he told the annual PAP congress.
Terence Chong, of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in
Singapore, says: “Political order and economic stability may go
hand in hand, but there is increasing awareness, even within the
PAP, that that may no longer work.”
He points to a feeling that the PAP is “out of touch with the
general suffering”.
In November, Singapore said it would cut the 2009 salaries of
senior government officials by up to 19 per cent in response to the
slowing economy.
The government also said recently that it would tighten already
strict rules on public assemblies to prevent acts of civil
disobedience. But civil activism is growing, and the government is
coming under increased scrutiny and criticism on the
internet.“
The government hasn’t helped matters by losing billions of dollars
by investing in Citigroup and Merrill Lynch,” says a foreign
businessman, referring to the $24bn (€18.6bn, £16.7bn) invested by
Singapore’s sovereign funds in western financial groups. “The
crisis is proving to be a reality check for the authorities.”
Officials are hoping to address public concerns with the recent
announcement of a S$20.5bn ($13.6bn, €10.6bn, £9.5bn) stimulus
package.
Manu Bhaskaran, of Centennial Group, an economic consultancy, also
argues that support for the government remains strong in comparison
with neighbouring Malaysia and Thailand, “where there is corruption
and mismanagement”.
He adds: “The population doesn’t want to rock the boat in an
economic storm and it will support the government, which has a
strong record of economic progress and political stability.”
But an element of uncertainty remains about the depth of public
support. A third of Singaporeans normally vote against the PAP,
despite the weakness of opposition parties. The government must
call an election by November 2011. It may decide to call a snap
election this year if it fears that the economy will not recover in
the next two years, when public discontent might be stronger.
While the PAP is expected to return to power, its nightmare result
would be to lose one or more of the five or six-member group
representation constituencies (GRCs) that dominate the
parliamentary system. Voters cast a single ballot for a party slate
of candidates. The opposition, which now has only two seats in the
84-member chamber, would gain its biggest representation in more
than 40 years.
“The loss of a GRC would be a psychological blow to the PAP and
might encourage more Singaporeans to join the opposition,” says the
local political analyst.
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