Source: The Straits Times
2 Has it become easier to obtain citizenship or
permanent residency?
WITH the number of PRs and new citizens on the rise, the NPS
says it is understandable that some people believe it has become
easier to secure a red passport. But it stresses that the criteria
are 'no less stringent' than before.
New residents are admitted on the basis of educational
qualifications, their immediate and potential economic
contributions and how well they and their family are likely to
integrate into Singapore society.
The last factor is assessed on the basis of the applicant's
length of stay here, the language he speaks, the culture he is
from, whether or not he has family members here, and his
contributions to society here. That would include his participation
in grassroots and community work.
As Singaporeans become better educated, the NPS said, via
e-mail, 'more will be expected of potential immigrants who wish to
apply for PR and citizenship'.
It declined to give details on the number of applications and
the success rate.
Ms Ragini Dhanvantray, managing director of Rikvin Consultancy,
which helps facilitate immigration here, observes that the time it
takes to obtain permanent residency has fallen.
'In the past, employment pass holders would apply for permanent
residency only after working here for two years.
'Now, they can apply after just six months - and about 60 to
70per cent will get it,' she says.
3 Do we really need immigrants? What if we close the
door on them?
IF SINGAPORE stopped accepting immigrants right now, deaths
among citizens and PRs would overtake births in 12 years, says
veteran demographer Saw Swee Hock.
That is based on a projection of a total fertility rate (TFR) of
1.31. Demographers use TFR to project the average number of babies
that will be born to a woman in a population.
Singapore's TFR is now 1.29.
That means Singapore's population will start to shrink in
2020.
Even if the TFR goes up to 1.51, the population will still
shrink - albeit later, in 2025.
Prof Saw, the author of a book entitled Population Of Singapore
and a professorial fellow at the Institute of the South-east Asian
Studies, thus states emphatically: 'We need foreigners, forever and
ever.'
The need to grow Singapore's population is a function of the
need to grow the economy, he notes.
Singapore Management University economist Hoon Hian Teck says
that with the growing prominence of the services sector, the
shortfall in skilled labour has become more acute.
'In addition, the economy has undergone an important shift from
being a technology follower to one that also creates new
technologies,' he adds.
That means placing a high value on skilled researchers, both
local and foreign.
In an interview last year, National Population Committee
chairman Wong Kan Seng calculated that for the economy to grow at
6per cent annually, Singapore needs an extra 87,300 workers each
year.
The NPS notes that as a country without natural resources,
Singapore needs to depend on human capital for growth. And the
global competition for talent is intense, it adds.
'If Singapore does not welcome them, they will simply look
elsewhere and compete against us.'
4 Are there other ways to keep the economy
growing?
YES, say some experts.
One way is to increase labour productivity.
A country's economic growth is the sum of two factors - the size
of the labour force and its productivity. So higher productivity
can compensate for a smaller labour force.
Labour economist Hui Weng Tat, of the Lee Kuan Yew School of
Public Policy, who has served as a consultant to the Manpower
Ministry, believes that this is the most 'desirable' strategy.
The share that labour productivity growth has contributed to
Singapore's total economic growth has declined steadily over the
past two decades.
Prof Hui charted the decline in a paper he co-wrote with
economist Aamir Rafique Hashmi.
From 1995 to 2000, for instance, productivity growth averaged
2.5per cent, and accounted for 39.7per cent of the gross domestic
product (GDP) growth. That was down from 51.6per cent in the
preceding five years.
The figure was also low compared with those in other developed
economies.
For the same period from 1995 to 2000, productivity growth
accounted for 60.1per cent of the United States' GDP growth, and
102.2per cent of Japan's.
Prof Hui projects that if Singapore's productivity growth can be
boosted to account for 60per cent of GDP growth, the demand for
foreign labour will steadily go down.
According to his projections, at current productivity growth
rates, Singapore will need 2.78million foreign workers by 2034.
But if productivity were one percentage point higher, then
Singapore would need only 1.48million foreign workers by 2034 - a
difference of 1.3million workers.
But such a productivity boost could prove 'elusive', he says, as
it depends on many factors, from infrastructure to workforce
quality and fiscal incentives.
The NPS says that productivity improvement remains a key focus
of the Government.
The second way to grow the economy without increasing the
reliance on foreign labour is by encouraging older Singaporeans to
work longer, and more women to return to the workforce, says Prof
Saw.
The participation rates of both groups remain low compared with
those of other countries.
The government has been trying to do both, and has made some
progress.
But some, such as MP for Ang Mo Kio GRC Inderjit Singh, question
if it is necessary to push so hard for growth year after year.
Mr Singh, a businessman, says: 'I personally feel that we have
adopted a 'grow at all costs' economic policy.
'I would have preferred a more moderate growth and, therefore, a
more moderate population growth.'
He believes that the decision to build two integrated resorts in
one go and a new sports hub, and expand the transport
infrastructure in a massive way, is a case of 'trying to do too
much too quickly'.
Prof Hui says that in an island-state with a very high
population density of 6,000persq km, 'it might be argued that the
lower growth target path could in fact provide a higher standard of
living in Singapore'.
But lawyer and Hong Kah GRC MP Alvin Yeo is not so sure.
'There is the concern that with a small, open economy like ours,
which is so susceptible to external influences which are hard to
predict, planning for very modest growth could result in
substantial under-shooting of our targets.
'But this is perhaps an issue which we need to review from time
to time, as our economy, and society, matures.'