Temasek selling Merrill Lynch at a loss

last SG · 2008-07-28T20:26:28+00:00

Yah.....I think they made the purchase a little too early in its timing....But then again....since it is deemed 'long-term' investment...and since a perfect...

O o O o SG

1) Given the set of economic circumstances in current US economy, I would say that Merrill Lynch would be trading in the AVERAGE share price of around USD 27 to USD 20 for the month of October. Provided the US economy does not promote aggressive monetary expansion to stimulate the economy and inflation levels are maintained.

Now my question. Do you have the guts to put your money where your mouth is and bet against me?

Maurizio, I am not sure if I should feel proud of you for taking up the challenge or should I be sad to see you making a fool out of yourself again by setting chidlish and unrealistic conditions just to show people that you CAN predict the market.

1) You are giving yourself a US$7 trading band, which is about 26% margin based on yesterday trading price of US$26. On top of that you are using AVERAGING to measure your prediction, which means that potentially even if ML stock price trade as high as US$30.50 to as low as US$16.50, you will still have a good chance of being mathematically correct. That my friend is a trading margin which is WIDER than what STI, DJIA, Nikkei, FTSE, KOSPI, HANGSENG have flunctuated over the past 12 months. Are you trying to be kiasu si boh?

2) Beside protecting yourself with averaging and wide trading margin, you also included unrealistic condition that there must be no aggressive monetary expansion to stimulate the economy and inflation levels are maintained.

Can I know is this is a new feature that you can select when you are short selling stocks over the X-change? And what is your meaning of AGGRESSIVE? e.g?

As an investor, I really dont see a point in talking about stock price without making a decision to buy or sell, so my question to you is, if you are an investor like Temasek, can you tell us what is your target price to buy into ML from now to Oct08? Can I say it is US$20, since that is in the lower end of your prediction?

As for your condition you stated in blue, I am very curious on why do you want to insist that inflation level be maintained? AFAIK, ML share price was trading at US$26 yesterday, (thats after they annouced they are getting rid of their TOXIC CDOs,) and you are betting that it will go to as low as US$20, which is a whopping 23%, down from yesterday closing price. Hence common sense will tell us that it should be in your interest to see inflation rising instead of maintaining, so that it will create more problem in the CDOs market which will result to more writedown for banks.

So Maurizio, can you explain to us the purpose behind maintaining inflation level?

O o O o SG

2) Market timing is not for everybody, it's definitely not for people like you, who have insufficient knowledge and information. If your investment philosophy is the same as Warren Buffett or George Soros, then I guess you would have been a billionaire right now won't you. There is a difference between timing the bottom of the market and predicting the market (whether share prices will be substantially lower) based on economic fundamentals. The same person whom you quote, also made this prediction in 2007. It's not possible to predict the exact location of the stock market exactly, but it is possible to predict the general movement of the market based on leading indicators. If what you said is true, then those information that intelligent investors rely on would be redundant, everybody should just be like you, grab any investment and hold it forever. Geez! I think you qualify to be a portfolio manager now, given that there is nothing to distinguish you and Warren Buffett. You had basic knowledge from your Marketing Degree course, so don't purport to be be an expert in finance. So were you long or short in equities from 2007 to present?

Maurizio, I believe you should stop abusing the name of Warren Buffett like you know about his investment philosophy inside out.

Warren Buffett is an investor that only go for long term investment, hence to him stock price flunctuation will not affect his long term strategy.

I believe I have quote the below artcle and a quote from the man himself.

“I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two.”

http://www.fivecentnickel.com/2008/03/25/investment-insights-market-timing

If his investment strategy is about timing the market, then I am sure he would have sold his entired investment portfolio to take advantage of his ability to time the market isnt it?

Maurzio, please stop contaminate the minds of other forumer here, because it seems to me that despite the fact that you have contradict yourself so many time, some fools here will be regards you are "Warren Buffett" of Speakers Corner.

O o O o SG

If Temasek didn't take up the offer in Dec 2007, they can still acquire shares from the open market (at much lower price) or purchase the current share offer from Merrill Lynch now. If they don't raise the required capital (Temasek had effectively shackled itself to Merrill Lynch, they can't don't exercise the option to purchase the shares, else they will lose more) assuming that no investors are bullish about the prospects of Merrill Lynch, then the shares will definitely drop further.

Maurizio, before I go on to explain to you about why what you said will not work in real world, can you please tell us if you have any real life experience in stock trading and do you personally have a stock trading account with any broker in Singapore.

1) On Wednesday, when the market heard that Temasek is exploring the possibility of acquiring the remaining stake in SCS, its share price surge from S$0.85 to S$1.08, which is 27% rise and trading was suspended. And that is exactly what I have been trying to tell you that such billion dollar deal like ML, Citi of UBS can never be done in the open market and they have to be arranged privately. http://www.todayonline.com/articles/268062.asp

Hence based on the same principle, it will be wrong to say that Temasek can still acquire the a stake in ML at a cheaper price if the pass the opportunity in Dec07 in the OPEN MARKET

2) Contrary to what you have been saying about how stupid is Temasek investment in ML, Temasek has managed to reduced their average ML share cost from US$48 to US$21 because of the capital protection clause when I mentioned earlier.

So Maurzio, are you still going to continue to tell us that Maurizio13 & Co is still the smarter investor?

O o O o SG

OK. Define your understanding of the word " SINK".

SINK in the context of property will means that property price island wide will be falling isnt it? or if you have other meaning to the word sink?

O o O o SG

O o O,

Your forecasting methods haven't been exactly accurate in the past.

Maurizio, on paper, Temasek is already sitting on a profit with ML investment because after the recent new share issue, Temasek have managed to reduce their average cost from US$48 to US$21 and the stock price was trading at US$25-6 yesterday. And like I said, these are paper gain, which are important to only people like Maurizio13.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Singapores-Temasek-confirms-investment-in-Merrill-GZ32W

How many time must you screw yourself up before learn to read before you talk, and learn not to venture into subjects which you are clueless. And lets not forget about the chain of meaningless statistic you have been posting in this forum.

O o O o SG

that is what i am saying. creating multiple accounts and supporting each other posts at the same time. i wonder is he really 30+ years old. hmm.. 18 years ago he took his O level right?

Freedome4ever, thank you very much for providing road side entertainment to this thread, it seems to me that both you and EAGLE are just like clowns in the circus doing all the supporting show in this thread.

If you have nothing to contribute to the subject of this thread, I think you should just buzz off to another thread instead of trying to make yourself look involves in our discussion here.

And btw, technically speaking do you believe Eagle could create 10 different sgforums account on the same PC and chat at the shoutbox at the same time?

NO bullshit long story and excuses, just Yes or No?

O o O o SG

Noticed he only mentioned A for E maths. Likely to be an A2 I guess.

Guessed he stopped at O levels, because functions was a major part in A level exams too.

Eagle, why dont you go ahead and show us all the certificate and awards if thats what you want to show off, while I could show them your little life story at sgforums?

2001
What is love? (want to know if he is falling in love)
What do u look for in ur life partners? (want to know how to choose girl)
What do gals do when they show interest? (want to know is any girls like him)
Gals, how would u prefer to be ask out on a date? (Want to learn how to date a girl)

2002
Guys, how wil u choose? (how lian, want to tell other he has choice!!)
How do u tell ur parents you got gf? (planning forward, because he anticipate that he will want to bring gf back to make out)
Love at first sight (still living in his little fantasy)

2007
How would you ask your friend for any sexual activity? (horny bastard want to ask girl for sex)
How much money to do you need to get married? (thinking of getting married when he is still a student? maybe thinking of using marriage to hold on to her gf)
Reasons why you would go for Singles Club outing (want to know if he is the only one looking for sex)
Are you attracted by intelligence (he doesnt have charm and want to know if by studying hard will it attract opposite sex)
It is the fear of rejection (Still struggling, no balls to approach chic)
Reason why there are matchmakers (Trying to find out if there is a need to go to one in future)
Define girly / manly (Some girls must have commented that he is girly)
Being single or attached (asking if being single is ok)
10 Things You Must Know About Fat Loss (Trying to look manly because he is one fat cubby mama's boy)
Lucky Singles Club not Desperate Club (Trying to assure himself he is not desperate)
Supposed you are attached what would you do to hold on to your girl/guy? (GF is leaving him, want to know who to hold her back)

freedom4ever SG

If you have nothing to contribute to the subject of this thread, I think you should just buzz off to another thread instead of trying to make yourself look involves in our discussion here.

And btw, technically speaking do you believe Eagle could create 10 different sgforums account on the same PC and chat at the shoutbox at the same time?

NO bullshit long story and excuses, just Yes or No?

then i tell you is a YES.

if you want proof, i believe eagle already told you the way in the other thread.

since you got so many accounts, you can try open a firefox and an IE and login both and try it out for yourself. that is the simplest and easiest way for 2 accounts to login at the same time.

O o O o SG

then i tell you is a YES.

if you want proof, i believe eagle already told you the way in the other thread.

since you got so many accounts, you can try open a firefox and an IE and login both and try it out for yourself. that is the simplest and easiest way for 2 accounts to login at the same time.

F4, if it is a YES, why are you limiting yourself to 2 accounts instead of 10?

Please read with your eyes and not your heart or emotion for Eagle.

freedom4ever SG

F4, if it is a YES, why are you limiting yourself to 2 accounts instead of 10?

Please read with your eyes and not your heart or emotion for Eagle.

if you got 10 accounts, use web proxy. answer your question le? you can try it yourself.

i use 2 accounts as example cos firefox and IE is the simplest way. if you are lazy to try it out, try posting it in a few IT forums to see if you get the same reply.

oh, btw have you heard of virtual PC too?

http://www.microsoft.com/windows/products/winfamily/virtualpc/overview.mspx

hope you can learn something new.

O o O o SG

if you got 10 accounts, use web proxy. answer your question le? you can try it yourself.

i use 2 accounts as example cos firefox and IE is the simplest way. if you are lazy to try it out, try posting it in a few IT forums to see if you get the same reply.

oh, btw have you heard of virtual PC too?

http://www.microsoft.com/windows/products/winfamily/virtualpc/overview.mspx

hope you can learn something new.

F4, I suggest that you test it out first before being so cock sure you can do it.

Please remember, I am referring to SHOUTBOX, not simply logging on to sgforums and appearing on Users Online list.

eagle SG

Realised something?

Gazelle likes to live in self-denial, and when he realises he loses in any argument, all he does is to take some unrelated things to do a personal attack. That's the mark of a loser

And I bet he don't have the balls to start a new thread to do his personal attacks at Speaker's Corner again.

eagle SG

if you got 10 accounts, use web proxy. answer your question le? you can try it yourself.

i use 2 accounts as example cos firefox and IE is the simplest way. if you are lazy to try it out, try posting it in a few IT forums to see if you get the same reply.

oh, btw have you heard of virtual PC too?

http://www.microsoft.com/windows/products/winfamily/virtualpc/overview.mspx

hope you can learn something new.

Don't get influenced by him into some unrelated topic. It's his tactic. We have seen him branched out to property discussions and inflation discussions, leading forumers to unrelated stuff.

An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who posts controversial and usually irrelevant or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum or chat room, with the intention of baiting other users into an emotional response or to generally disrupt normal on-topic discussion

O o O o SG

Realised something?

Gazelle likes to live in self-denial, and when he realises he loses in any argument, all he does is to take some unrelated things to do a personal attack. That's the mark of a loser

And I bet he don't have the balls to start a new thread to do his personal attacks at Speaker's Corner again.

There is no point trying to show off your balls if you cant support what you claimed with ACTIONS.

Actions speaks louder than word remember?

I am sure many here are all looking forward to see how you can manage operate 10 different sgforums accounts and chat at the shoutbox all at the same time with one terminal

freedom4ever SG

Don't get influenced by him into some unrelated topic. It's his tactic. We have seen him branched out to property discussions and inflation discussions, leading forumers to unrelated stuff.

somehow he seem shocked to learn that there is this thing call virtual PC too.

O o O o SG

Don't get influenced by him into some unrelated topic. It's his tactic. We have seen him branched out to property discussions and inflation discussions, leading forumers to unrelated stuff.

Day in day out, you are calling others troll. please look at your past 20 posts in this thread and tell me which one is related to Merrill Lynch and Temasek?

maurizio13 SG

Can I know is this is a new feature that you can select when you are short selling stocks over the X-change? And what is your meaning of AGGRESSIVE? e.g?

So Maurizio, can you explain to us the purpose behind maintaining inflation level?

1) It's still below the USD 26 currently trade price. If you can give me a better price, then state your claims. You don't have the guts to take up the bet just say so. We will understand.

2) If you don't understand expansionistic monetary policy, what more you want me to do. Teach you again? You need to go back to school to learn.

Target price like any investor is .........the lower the better. A redundant question, as if Temasek can set buying price, you sure your maths got A and B?

Suggest you go learn some economics and finance before you start crapping.

O o O o SG

somehow he seem shocked to learn that there is this thing call virtual PC too.

Are you looking for excuses not to do what you claim you could?

Are you worried that you cant deliever what you said you could?

I guess the answer to both that question is a YES huh?

freedom4ever SG

Are you looking for excuses not to do what you claim you could?

Are you worried that you cant deliever what you said you could?

I guess the answer to both that question is a YES huh?

i asking you to try out for yourself since you got so many accounts.

i use virtual PC before, have you?

maurizio13 SG

Maurizio, I believe you should stop abusing the name of Warren Buffett like you know about his investment philosophy inside out.

Warren Buffett is an investor that only go for long term investment, hence to him stock price flunctuation will not affect his long term strategy.

I believe I have quote the below artcle and a quote from the man himself.

“I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two.”

http://www.fivecentnickel.com/2008/03/25/investment-insights-market-timing

If his investment strategy is about timing the market, then I am sure he would have sold his entired investment portfolio to take advantage of his ability to time the market isnt it?

I know you have autism, so you tend to repeat and not digesting my earlier post. I for one have no desire to keep repeating my earlier post. Warren Buffett has a newsletter about Investment Strategy and Market Timing Update. You delight in chasing your own tail in circles, I for one do not enjoy this act, do enjoy yourself repeating without reading and understanding what others have posted.

Ask any intelligent investor if they would have bought into US stock market given the subprime crisis.

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