Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's military slap at Georgia may
give China added justification to keep its own ethnic separatists
in line.
The war plays to China's argument that it must keep ethnic
regions firmly under control, lest they become autonomous enough to
cause problems for the central government, as Georgia has done for
Moscow since becoming a pro-Western democracy after protests in
2003 threw out a government friendlier to Russia.
To the Chinese, the Georgia conflict ``is all the result of the
inability of Russian leaders to control their country, and allowing
ethnic divisions to dominate'' after the Soviet Union's collapse in
1991, said
Robert Ross, a
professor at Boston College specializing in China and East Asia.
``So the lesson for China in this is that we must be all-the-more
sure that we control our ethnic groups.''
With the heft to counter U.S. political and economic dominance
since the Cold War ended, China has been wary about Washington's
support for the former Soviet Union's so-called ``color
revolutions'' -- Georgia's 2003 Rose Revolution, Ukraine's
2004-2005 Orange Revolution and Kyrgyzstan's 2005 Tulip Revolution,
named for the hues or flowers favored by street protesters.
China has attracted international censure for crackdowns in its
Western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang, where it says it faces
separatist and terrorist movements. Attacks and bombings in
Xinjiang this month have killed at least 16 police officers.
Revolutionary Momentum
``If color revolutions have formed a kind of momentum, first
Russia, then Central Asia and then eventually this kind of wave of
color revolutions will expand into China, and China will be the
last one to stand against this kind of democratization movement,''
said Huang Jing, a
senior research fellow at the
National University of Singapore's East
Asian Institute.
China probably views Russia's flexing of its military muscles as
a mixed blessing, Ross said. While countering U.S. influence might
benefit China, the resurgent strength of a one- time foe in 1969
border clashes and earlier parrying over Mongolia also is
unsettling, he said. And, just as Georgia would like reassert
authority over the pro-Moscow breakaway regions of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia, China wants Taiwan back under its control.
``Is this a precedent for intervention that could be used to
keep Taiwan out of China or separate Tibet from China?'' said
Phil Deans, a professor of
international affairs at Temple University in Tokyo. ``This dispute
could cut either way for the Chinese, and so the safest thing to do
is to remain silent.''
Low Profile
Since Russia sent troops into South Ossetia on Aug. 8, China has
addressed the conflict publicly with three statements on its
Foreign Ministry Web site, the longest
just three sentences, calling for a peaceful resolution. China also
kept a low profile during a United Nations debate on Georgia.
The conflict provides what China may consider a useful
distraction after the months leading up to the Olympic Games in
Beijing saw international protests over China's harsh treatment of
Tibetans and other ethnic minorities and intolerance of political
dissent, Huang said.
Last year, President
George W. Bush met with Tibet's
exiled spiritual leader, the
Dalai Lama, in Washington and
has criticized China's crackdowns there. The U.S. Congress awarded
the Tibetan the Congressional Gold Medal, its highest civilian
award.
Uighur Activist
Bush used his trip to the opening ceremony of the Olympics to
prod the Chinese on human rights and religious freedom. Last month,
he met with an ethnic Uighur activist from Xinjiang, Rebiya Kadeer,
at the White House.
``Everyone can see the real confrontation is not between Russia
and Georgia, but between Russia and the U.S. and NATO,'' Huang
said. ``In the big game, if there is resistance against the U.S.
and their allies, it's kind of good news for China, because that
means more maneuvering room in their role with the U.S.''
China has worked with Russia and former Soviet Central Asian
nations to quell terrorism in that region, including in Xinjiang,
where Muslim separatists want to create an independent East
Turkistan.
One vehicle for cooperation is the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. The group, which includes China,
Russia and the Central Asian nations, works on trade, energy,
tourism, military exercises and, as one July statement put it,
``the fight against terrorism, separatism and extremism.''
U.S. Relations
The rulers of former Soviet states in Central Asia will assess
their relations with the U.S. and likely avoid getting too close as
a result of the Georgian conflict, said
Yevgeny Satanovsky, president
of the Moscow-based Institute of Middle Eastern Studies and
president of the Russian Jewish Congress.
``They will still be free to pursue any relations that they
want, until it steps on Russia's toes,'' Satanovsky said. ``In
Central Asia, if you're not strong, you're no one and you will not
be talked to.''
In contrast, everyone wants to talk to China.
``China actually feels they're the beneficiary of all this,''
Huang said. ``First, it highlights its soft power, its smart
diplomacy. Second, China feels good because now the Russians are
rolling back the so-called color revolutions.''
i always support china stand firm of preventing any wantaway
state such as tibet or xinjiang. this article just justify
how the breakaway state might one day come back and bite you.
can you trust american foreign policy?
dont know about you guys, i support the russian compaign against
georgia. i found the speech by georgian PM is rather inspiring,
similar to hitler style. i find him a danger man to georgian ppl
than of any help!