
above:A$1 vs USD only.
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=AUD&to=USD&amt=1&t=2y
Oz possess few
traits of Asian economic crisis---
-----high current account deficit vs GDP
-----banks borrows Foreign currency at lower interest rate
then lends at higher interest rates
----huge external debt
----fiscal balance not substinal(pl read my graph shown
above)
----inflation in 17 years high
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2000/062300.htm
1.sudden
currecy drop
BUT A$ drops 9% at trade --weighted to various currencies in
less than 1 month!!
2.The current
account deficit rate is higher than few
countries
in Asian financial crisis.
Oz current account looks not so rosy,at US$56.2 b vs GDP US 760
b at PPP.
about 7.4% of GDP.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/as.html
3.High
external debts---mostly private debts
read CIA above then u know.
It is 108 % and 90 % of GDP
at PPP and GDP at official exchange rate respectively.
This is on par and worse than with few hard hit countries before
the crisis:
Thailand ---90%
Korea ---32%
Indonesia ---55%
It looks not nice combined with sudden drop in FX rate.
Of course,i cant say the crisis is coming,for i dunt have the
crystal ball.
But can u deny there are some things looks familiar.
U also can say,hey Oz get rich underground resources.Yes.
U are right.
Now i think the key is if house price will drop further.
If it is,then most likely problems will come,like USA and other
countries
sub prime.I told u OZ still grant 100 % loan.Banks will have to
write off
and may face difficult to pay interst and principal to external
creditors,
and then EXCHANGE rate!!
U
better pray followings will not
happen
----house price drop further
----drop further in FX rate(it is a resultant effect rather than
a cause)
----lower deposit interest rate which will drag down FX rate
-----mega currency sabotage
operation like in the crisis(u will be naive
if u think
profits--seekers only target at non--English speaking
countries)
-----if u find any huge short selling of Oz dollars,pl share
here.
read this for house report
http://www.ljhooker.com.au/cmsdata/files/internet/cms_489faf9929708.pdf