Fall of military junta and reincarnation of civil power
in Thailand
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Ivan Zakharchenko) - The
Kingdom of Thailand, so liked by overseas tourists, is seething
following pre-New Year parliamentary elections that defeated the
military junta, which toppled the government of Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra in September 2006.
His followers, represented by the People Power Party (PPP), have
gained 233 seats out of 480 in the lower house of parliament. Their
main opponent, the Democratic Party, which is supported by army
generals, obtained only 165 seats.
And although Thaksin's supporters (Thaksin is in exile in the
United Kingdom) have failed to muster an absolute majority, party
leader Samak Sundaravej is sure he will set up a coalition
government. The announcement is expected on January 4.
It remains only to wind up talks with the smaller parties which
will form a coalition with the PPP. Administration in the country
will change, and the former prime minister, whose frozen accounts,
to believe the local press, hold $1.9 billion, will return to
Thailand from Britain, where he owns the Manchester City soccer
club.
Thaksin, wealthy as he is, is popular among ordinary people and the
rural population. His economic policy, called Thaksinomics,
produced a flexible credit system, a healthcare system available to
all, and rural development funds in 2001-2006.
At the same time, his opponents among the aristocrats and the
military accuse the former prime minister of corruption and graft,
although, as observers note, this is typical both of Thailand and
other Asian countries as a standard way of solving problems.
Thaksin is also blamed for a ruthless approach to the Muslim south,
where more than 2,500 people have died in separatist outrages in
the last four years.
There are four million Muslims living in Thailand's three southern
provinces, where Buddhism has been declared a state religion.
The voting results have produced a clear picture, giving the thumbs
down to the military, who, despite adopting a new constitution,
failed to do anything to improve the situation in the country - not
even prove Thaksin's hand in corruption.
The elections have shown that the generals in power now have little
support inside the country.
In May of this year, the military regime banned Thaksin's former
party Thai Rak Thai. The former head of government and another 100
politicians were put out of circulation for five years. The PPP
intends to lift the restrictions. Thaksin has already declared that
he will consider a possible return in February, but is going to
stay out of politics. That would be a wise decision, considering
the lessons of the previous years.
Yet observers believe the former prime minister will manage to keep
his political influence even if he remains in the shadows.
There are also gloomy scenarios. Some observers are not ruling out
that the PPP can be dissolved in the same way as Thai Rak Thai,
under the pretext of election irregularities.
The Thai newspaper Nation reported a few days ago that the
elections commission and military authorities were already
investigating 160 such cases.
Recently Thailand has adopted a law on homeland security, vesting
the military with the right to take up political issues without
consulting the government. There is even talk of a new military
coup in the country, which has a record of 18 previous coups.
The previous military coup took place in Thailand in 1991 and few
people expected the generals to dabble in politics again. But that
happened 15 months ago.
And one more point: The country's veteran Democratic Party, led by
Abhisit Vejjajiva, although it lost the elections, returned good
results. It was this party that during the 1998 Asian financial
crisis ensured the proper functioning of a multi-party cabinet.
This force will remain a political heavyweight despite its "stain"
of military junta support.
Political passions in Thailand will keep running high for a long
time, because the army generals and the Democrats are unlikely to
swallow the bitter pill of parliamentary elections any time soon.
Especially since their results have practically split the country
in two - defenders of the ordinary people and upholders of law and
order.
But the army generals and the overthrown prime minister Thaksin
ought to realize that they should no longer be involved in politics
but clear the way for new leaders who might hit upon right
decisions and avoid further upheavals for Thailand.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20071226/94235732.html
