Hong Kong v Shanghai: Global Rivals
By Steve Schifferes
Globalisation reporter, BBC News, Shanghai, China
Business seats on flights from Hong Kong to Beijing and Shanghai
are now packed full on Monday mornings and Friday evenings,
according to China's banking regulator, Liu Mingkang.
A decade ago, the migration was in the other direction, with
migrant labourers from China flooding into Hong Kong.
The reverse commuting from Hong Kong is one sign of the growing
economic importance of mainland China compared to its former
colony.
And Shanghai's vibrant shopping streets now attract visitors from
Hong Kong and around the world.
But residents of Shanghai - whose per capita income, though it is
the highest in China, is still well below people in Hong Kong -
still envy their richer cousins.
And according to Professor Saskia Sassen, an expert on
globalisation who teaches at the London School of Economics,
Shanghai is still lagging behind Hong Kong as a truly global
city.
But will it overtake its rival in the race for financial
supremacy?
Economic liberalisation
In the 1980s, Hong Kong was the vital entrepot between mainland
China and the outside world.
Goods assembled in China were re-exported through Hong Kong, while
financial and business services were provided for Chinese companies
which traded with the West.
And when the Chinese government decided to open up its economy to
foreign investment, the first special economic zone - Shenzhen -
was chosen for its proximity to Hong Kong.
Many Hong Kong businesses, especially in textiles and clothing,
relocated, bringing expertise and capital to the mainland.
The specialisation of Hong Kong in financial and business services
increased as manufacturing jobs moved to the mainland.
And Chinese companies used the Hong Kong stock market when they
wanted to raise money.
Hong Kong's open financial markets meant that it came under
pressure during the Asian financial crisis in 1997, just after the
handover.
Only massive intervention by the government prevented a financial
meltdown.
The Shanghai boom
But by the 1990s, it had become clear that China's economic
policy-makers were tilting towards the development of other
economic regions, especially Shanghai and Beijing, as the leading
centres of foreign investment.
A clique of leaders including Zhu Róngji - the prime minister who
was former mayor of Shanghai - approved the expansion of the city
on its eastern bank to create a new financial district.
The area, Pudong, soon became the leading centre of foreign
investment, where multinational firms congregated and multinational
banks placed their headquarters.
Shanghai's dynamic economic growth, fuelled by exports, has also
transformed the physical fabric of the city and transformed the
whole Shanghai Delta region.
And in the government's latest five-year plan, it is these two
regions, not the Pearl River Delta around Hong Kong, that is
favoured with new, high-tech development.
Financial competition
China has been determined to develop the financial services
industry on the mainland.
In 1990 it created a new stock market in Shanghai to rival Hong
Kong.
Open mainly to domestic investors, it is now in the midst of an
unprecedented boom.
China boosted its own banking sector, and increased regulation,
especially after the banks got into difficulties over bad loans to
state firms.
And it is gradually opening up the financial sector to
international firms, with foreign banks now being allowed to open
yuan accounts for domestic residents.
However, the Chinese banking sector is still largely involved in
lending to the corporate sector, not individuals.
And financial services for ordinary citizens are still relatively
undeveloped, with only 60 million credit cards, for example, in a
population of 1.3 billion.
China's domestic market for financial services, however, is likely
to grow rapidly, and it is attracting investment from firms around
the world.
World cities
According to Professor Sassen, Hong Kong still has advantages that
Shanghai cannot match in terms of financial sophistication.
She calls Hong Kong a world city, with its financial markets more
attuned to the innovations in global capital markets.
In her view, Hong Kong is closer to New York, and Shanghai to
Chicago - a huge city serving an industrial hinterland, with
specialist financial and trading services evolving to smooth the
path for industry.
It is notable that many international banks have kept their Asian
business headquarters in Hong Kong, just as they moved their
domestic business to Shanghai.
And if China decides to accelerate the liberalisation of its
currency, it could be that Hong Kong will play an even more
important role in currency trading.
According to Hong Kong's financial secretary, Henry Tang, the city
retains its strengths as a financial centre because of its links
with the rest of Asia as well as the mainland, and its clear
commitment to the rule of law.
And at the same time, Shanghai's headlong dash for growth may run
into political roadblocks.
The new Chinese leadership has increasingly emphasised the need for
balanced growth, with less disparities of wealth and more priority
for the rural hinterland.
So it may be that rather than rivals, Shanghai and Hong Kong become
complementary parts of the Chinese economic miracle.
FACTS
HONG KONG V SHANGHAI
Per capita income:
Hong Kong: $27,480
Shanghai: $2,650
Property prices:
Hong Kong: $12,500/sq m
Shanghai: $3,000/sq m
Stock market capitalisation:
Hong Kong: $1.8 trillion
Shanghai: $1.7 trillion