Originally posted by Gazelle:
Referring back to what I have mentioned, I was stating higher value
added manufacturing, not service.
i changed it to "service" to make your argument sound more
convincing. higher value added manufacturing is still
manufacturing. it is highly dependent on capital and technology
which is easily moved from one country to another. service on the
other hand depends on skills, knowledge, language and such
intangibles as atttitudes which may not be as easily acquired or
mastered.
See my post above. And one thing for sure, you dont need a degree
to be a waiter or waitress at Le Amis, and the service industry
will create alot of opportunity for people who have less paper
qualification.
i quote your words from below "plus how many Ferraris and Bentley
can the rich buy every month ..." in the same token, how many meals
can the rich eat per day. how many waiters does he require to serve
him? in order to create a lot of waitering opportunities, you would
need a lot of rich people who would in turn overwhelm the resources
/ infrastructures that are currently available.
I am not sure which estate or apartment you are staying, as far as
I am aware, most of the security and maintainece personnel, include
those in the office, at my apartment are local indians, chinese and
malays, not bangladeshi.
still, how many people can you employ to maintain an estate of say
five condominiums? how many rich foreigners do you need to fill
those condominiums? the ratio between the number of people you can
employ against the number of rich foreign talent you have to import
is so lob sided.
Singapore is an open market, if there is a demand for condo, there
will be developers who will be willing to
sell.
the demand is artificially induced through vigorous import of
foreign talents. that's where it is not so market oriented but
government induced instead.
Hence I dont see a logic about sacrificing the construction
industry for the sake of 80% Singaporeeans who stay in HDB. And who
is suppose to build the HDB flats if we dont have foreign workers?
Is Singaporeans willing to pay Singaporeans to build
flats?
no one's saying that the construction industry should be
sacrificed. all i'm saying is that we should not be over zealous
with foreign talent import and the rate of any such importation
should be at a level that can be comfortably absorbed by the
economy without creating price distortions or even bubbles.
Our discussion is not about who being the "winner", it is about
what a rich man buying a Ferrari in Singapore will contribute to
our economy, does it create jobs for the people in
Singapore.
your opinion is essentially one sided. it only considers the
contribution to the economy and job creation without considering
how much that contribution would be, how much job creation and at
what cost. you refuse to see such signs as our current property
boom (hopefully not bubble) as a signal that we're perhaps taking
on more than we can comfortably chew.
as for who wins, that is also an essential ingredient in the
discussion because if you look at the entire picture, the one that
stands to benefit the most would undoubtedly be the govt.
Like I mentioned before if you are saying that the influx of rich
foreigners will compete with Singaporeans on luxury goods and prime
estate, I would agree with you. However I dont see how Le Amis
could be competing with Kopitiam for coffeeshop space in HDB estate
or outskirt shopping mall. Have you forgotten what you mentioned
about 80% of Singaporeans living in HDB?
The shopping centre where Le Amis resides in would undoubtedly have
other restaurants that may or may not be as upmarket, such as MOS
Burger perhaps. to quote your words earlier "[to] create alot of
opportunity for people who have less paper qualification.", you
would in turn need a lot of rich people which would in turn
pressure more shopping mall usage to be converted into posh,
expensive restaurants while cheaper outlets gets phased out.
cheaper outlets, if they were to justify their continued operation
would be forced to up their prices which we ordinary folks end up
paying for.
There are different Cat. of COE for different size of car and I am
sure the top and bottom end buyer usually dont mix when they are
bidding for COE,
firstly they do mix, especially in the open category. secondly,
MPVs are popular amongst heartlanders and these usually come in
large sizes so they do compete with Ferraris for the same COEs.
thirdly, if the higher CC category is over subscribed and
experiences a sharp price increase, it naturally induces buyers to
downgrade to the lower CC category. so even though there are two
distinct categories, their prices are often correlated and move in
tandem. a quick look at COE prices would tell you that.
plus how many Ferraris and Bentley can the rich buy every month
considering that the prices of cars are the most expensive in this
world. I think the bulk of the owner of such luxury cars are not
foreigners but Singaporeans
well, if as you said we need to "create alot of opportunity for
people who have less paper qualification.", we would then need a
lot of rich people which would collectively purchase enough
Ferraris to, even if not on a monthly basis, influence COE
prices.
There are many different kind of REITs in singapore, some are
focusing on shopping malls, like Suntec, while others are mostly
focusing of factories and warehouses. Hence I dont think it is
right to make the comments about REIT companies are driven by rich
people coming to Singapore.
it is not a matter of right or wrong but common sense that tells
you that the driving force for REITs to snap up such properties as
shopping malls and office spaces is the expectation of an influx of
rich people.
As you have mentioned that 80% of Singaporeans are living in HDB
flats, hence do you think that shopping malls in Singapore can
survive by catering only to the rich?
i didn't say they would only cater to the rich. i said, time and
again, that in catering to the needs of the rich, resources would
be channelled towards them with the consequence that whatever
remaining resources for the 80% singaporeans would come at a higher
price.
the big word is "IF". Suppose IF in the next 10 to 15 years, 50% of
the population in Singapore are millionaires then you are
right.
you don't need 50% of the population to be millionaires to impact
the price of COEs. a simple example to help you see. suppose number
of buyers is twice number of COE quotas. price would be determined
by the median bid. if one extra millionaire comes along, it would
knock the median bidder out of bid so that the price is now
determined by the bid that is immediately higher than the original
median bid. if 10 millionaires comes along, COE would be jacked up
10 rungs higher than the original price.
If you want to look at it this way, then I would say the most
expensive plot of land in Singapore is not HDB, they are the high
rise apartment in dist 9 and 10 and for some 99 year leasehold
project they are selling at around S$1500 to S$2000 psf, and their
penthouse could hit $3000 per psf, plus they usually have a higher
plot ratio than HDB.
just the same, whether you cite high rise apartments or HDBs, on a
per plot land basis, bungalow owners pay far less than what the
piece of land is collectively worth to an entire block of
condominium / HDB residents. so the issue persists, why are we
subsidising bungalow owners?
