Be more afraid of this ...than this
Top futurist Peter Schwartz says world should be fretting over
climate change, not rise of China and India
By Woon Wui Tek
May 20, 2007
FIRST, the good news: There is no reason why economic good times
shouldn't roll on for a lot longer.
And you will have more time to enjoy them, because living way past
100 could become the norm.
But weather is the bad news: Will we one day go to war over
water?
The sweet-sour vision comes from futurist Peter Schwartz, who gave
a talk at the Civil Service College on Thursday.
The consultant, who advises organisations around the world on
future trends, is a member of the Government's Research, Innovation
and Enterprise Council (Riec).
He also led a team of futurists in visualising the year 2058 for
Steven Spielberg's hit 2002 film, Minority Report.
In his own 'report' on Thursday, MrSchwartz said new drivers of
growth should keep the world economy humming.
Two drivers - knowledge and good governance - are familiar. He
identified another driver as the increasingly complex and elaborate
nature of our society.
This will become a 'self-generating' cycle of wealth. He explained:
We keep coming up with new niches to fill.
This seems to make sense: We need only think of industries like the
handphone sector or consumer electronics.
In the field of science, MrSchwartz said the world is poised to
control 'biological systems' to the same degree we can already
control our physical environment.
Lifespans of 200 are not impossible, he suggested, drawing gasps.
'So choose wisely when you marry,' he quipped.
But as we live longer, we will need to keep working.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army. -- Pictures: AFP,
REUTERS
While the Government has just announced its intention to make it
easier for those above 62 to be rehired, Mr Schwartz is already
talking of the age of retirement being delayed to 75.
Sounds dreary? Ah, but we would be healthy enough to actually 'want
to work', he says.
'CHINDIA' THREAT?
Mr Schwartz's crystal ball is markedly brighter than the usual
pessimism from most futurists.
Take the predictions of academics like Samuel Huntington. That is,
that some inevitable 'clash of civilisations' is looming as new
powers like China challenge the West.
This view has it that China's neighbours would fall in line as
China becomes the regional leader.
But Mr Schwartz, who is co-founder and chairman of Global Business
Network, rejects this forcefully.
Yes, he happily acknowledges the importance of the rise of China
and India (or 'Chindia', as he dubs it).
'There's no force bigger... almost everything pales in comparison,'
he said.
But he also points out that this rise is due to the current world
system of economic trade - of which China and India are the
greatest beneficiaries.
From their energy needs to their exports, it's all achieved through
the current 'market orientation' - which is leading to an ever-more
integrated world.
'Chindia would be the biggest loser,' Mr Schwartz said, if such a
'world of integration' falls apart.
At the same time, he thinks China's neighbours - Vietnam or India,
for example - are more likely to resist than accept any attempt by
China to assert dominance. Therefore, the West 'and China should be
on the same side. China is not the enemy'.
Drought, in Assam, India.
All that is not to say that MrSchwartz sees the future through
rose-tinted glasses.
He acknowledges problems in Africa, South America and Europe
(Russia, he says, is facing 'demographic collapse').
He notes that there are religious, ideological, ethnic and even
criminal forces that could be very destabilising.
They may even learn new ways of waging war, thanks to the mess in
Iraq, Mr Schwartz said.
If, say, infrastructure and transport nodes are singled out, not
military targets, the US' military dominance - and it may 'become
even more militarily dominant' - will be relatively
toothless.
We might think planes (9/11) or train stations (the London
bombings).
WATER WARS THREAT?
But Mr Schwartz reserves his most dire warning for climate change,
which he calls 'the greatest challenge we've ever faced'.
This is partly due to the chaos that rising ocean levels could
wreak on low-lying places like Bangladesh.
He suggests that Singapore, as a rich and technologically- advanced
country, should try to help neighbours prepare for climate
disruption.
Mr Schwartz is most concerned about climate change because he
thinks it might touch off major wars.
'Imagine a 10-year drought, rather like what's going on in
Australia, but in the Tibetan highlands,' he said.
This would greatly affect water flow in crucial rivers like the
Mekong, which flows through China's Yunnan province and Cambodia,
Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.
We might well see 'wars for access to water'.
Mr Schwartz is familiar with the region. He first visited Singapore
in 1967, as a college student.
Is most of the cool stuff in Minority Report unattainable science
fiction? Mr Schwartz was asked this in the question-and-answer
session.
'Well, you won't see policemen flying around on jet packs... or
flying cars,' he replied - saying director Spielberg wanted those
elements in.
But the rest should come to pass, he said.