have we reached the limit where the great die-out begins?
9.2 billion on
Earth by 2050: UN: Millions expected to migrate to Europe,
U.S.
David Blair
The Daily Telegraph, with files from news services
At least 2.2 million migrants will arrive in the rich world every
year from now until 2050, the United Nations said yesterday.
The latest figures from the UN Population Division predict a global
upheaval without parallel in human history over the next four
decades.
There will be billions more people in Africa, Asia and the Middle
East. Of these, tens of millions will migrate to Europe and the
United States, while the indigenous populations of most countries
in the rich world will either stagnate or decline.
In total, the world's population will grow by 2.5 billion and reach
about 9.2 billion by 2050. This increase -- almost all of which
will occur in Africa, Asia and the Middle East -- is the equivalent
of the global population in 1950.
While some countries will grow exponentially, others will shrink
dramatically. The UN predicts the steady depopulation of vast areas
of Eastern Europe and the former communist world, as a result of
high levels of emigration and birth rates running persistently
below replacement levels.
Bulgaria's population will fall by 35% by 2050. Ukraine's will
plummet by 33%, Russia's by one-quarter and Poland's by one
fifth.
There will be 10% fewer Germans and 7% fewer Italians. But the flow
of migrants across borders will dramatically increase the
populations of other developed countries.
"The population of the more developed regions is expected to remain
largely unchanged at 1.2 billion, and would have declined, were it
not for the projected net migration from developing to developed
countries," the UN said.
The level of sustained mass migration across borders that the world
will experience over the next four decades is unprecedented.
Between 1970 and 1980, the rich world took about one million
migrants a year from poor countries. During the next 43 years,
immigration will run at more than twice that level and approach 2.3
million every year from now until 2050. Of these migrants, some
400,000 will leave Africa every year and about 1.2 million will
emigrate from Asia.
The gap in wealth and opportunity between the rich and poor worlds
will be the most significant "pull factor" behind this
change.
But the pressure exerted by rapidly rising populations in
developing countries will also be an important underlying
cause.
By 2050, India will have the highest population in the world,
totalling almost 1.7 billion people.
There will be 292 million Pakistanis, giving their country the
fifth biggest population. Nigeria will have 289 million people --
making it the world's sixth most populous country -- and Uganda's
population will rise to 93 million, comfortably exceeding the
totals in both its larger neighbours, Kenya and Tanzania.
This massive population growth will lead
to land degradation on a huge scale and place an immense strain on
the limited water resources of poor countries.
Malawi cannot feed its present population of 13 million -- and
every year its soils become more degraded and yields steadily fewer
crops.
By 2050, the UN forecasts that Malawi will have almost 32 million
people -- more than twice as many as today. Population growth on
this scale will almost certainly leave the country permanently
dependent on international food aid to keep its people
alive.
The UN's projections take into account new census data from
national censuses and surveys conducted around the world.
By 2045, the number of people over the age of 60 will likely
surpass the total of children under 15, the division said.
In 2050, those aged 60 and above are likely to number more than two
billion, with 1.8 billion under the age of 15, the data
shows.
"As a result of declining fertility and increasing longevity, the
populations of more and more countries are ageing rapidly," the
division said.
The median average age of a person in 2050 will be 38.1 years, up
from 28 in 2005 and 23.9 in 1975. Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, executive
director of the UN Population Fund, said the world faces the
challenge of meeting the needs of older people while looking after
the young, particularly in developing countries.
"Population ageing is a 20th century phenomenon resulting partly
from improvements in life expectancy," she said.
The report said a prevailing trend in developed countries of not
enough babies being born to replace people dying would continue,
while fertility in the least developed nations would decline but
still remain higher than the rest of the world.
"Rich nations concerned with too-low fertility should emulate
neighbours that have successfully introduced family friendly
policies to make careers and parenthood more compatible," Ms. Obaid
said.
"They should create an environment that makes it easier for men and
women to combine parenthood and careers. No one should be forced to
choose one or the other."
The UN's population predictions have proved largely accurate in the
past.
While the margin of error for these figures runs into the millions,
the broad trends they disclose are undisputed.
(source: National Post)