Singapores
Great population leap
A 6.5m-size city will be comparable in size to London (7.5m), HK
(7m), but can its racial fabric cope?
Seah Chiang Nee, littlespeck.com
Feb 17, 2007
LAST week, a child started kindergarten classes to begin a 17-year
journey before graduating into an unbelievably larger Singapore of
6.5m people.
She was the granddaughter of a former classmate of mine, who is
seeking - with thousands of others - a good start in life.
If she gets it, she will emerge in 2025 to see a country that will
be radically different from what it is today.
The government announced last week an ambitious plan to expand the
population from the present 4.5m to 6.5m, a 40% hike, in 20
years.
This will push Singapore to become the 23rd biggest city in the
world (by todays calculation) with migrants playing a major role
as they have always done.
A city-state of 6.5m would put it into a different league, not too
far behind the likes of Tokyo (8.5m), New York City (8.1m), London
(7.5m) and Hong Kong (7m), but bigger than Paris (2.2m).
But while these other populations are likely to increase by then,
albeit at a lesser rate, this closing-up with the worlds top-class
cities will still give Singaporeans a certain sense of pride.
But it is tempered by a large dose of uncertainty - even
apprehension - about the impact on their childrens future,
competition, jobs and lifestyles.
Singapore will also have the dubious distinction of overtaking Hong
Kong, by a wide margin, as the worlds third densest-populated
city.
By then, its 9,293 people per sq km (currently 6,20
will overshadow the territorys 6,407, and we all know what life
can be like; imagine queuing up just to pay your bills.
The most crowded cities remain Monaco (23,660 per sq km) and Macao
(17,699).
This rapid expansion has raised mixed feelings and a hard question
Can we cope?
It is also bad news for people in the lower strata. The
congregation of imported talent and wealth will add pressure on
them and widen the economic gap here.
Generally, people fear the more competitive lifestyle and higher
costs of living.
They are geared for a future of always fighting for space, jobs and
everything else, living in flats that run 40-60 storeys high, and
being packed in Japanese-style commuter trains.
Singapores population has already increased by a phenomenal 62%
from 2.7m to the present 4.5m in the past 16 years, one of the
fastest rates in the world.
This is shocking, said a 17-year-old teen when I told him it was
set to rise further. He had just obtained his O-Level grades.
Born in 1990 when Singapore had a population of only 2.7m, he
observed, Wow! This means that before I reach 35, I will be living
among 6.5m people.
To say he is uncertain is putting it lightly. He is very worried
about competing with an influx of foreigners hungry for jobs, who
worker harder and are more ready to accept less pay.
The foreign talent policy, which has drawn the government a lot
of political flak, will likely be expanded in the years
ahead.
Last year provided an example of the intensity.
The government granted permits for 58,200 permanent residency (PR)
and 13,900 citizenships to foreigners. Their total was almost
double the 38,000 babies born to Singaporeans.
In the next five years, some 240,000 PR and citizenships will be
issued but there is no guarantee the figures will not be
raised.
The biggest problem, of course, goes beyond congestion. Experts say
it will raise a host of urgent questions, like stability and social
cohesion, pollution and adequate public facilities.
Land use is being revised for more schools, health care homes, etc;
food, water and energy need re-planning.
Visiting American population expert Joel Cohen raised some of these
issues at a recent public lecture. The Lee Kuan Yew School of
Public Policy had invited him here to provide a macro view on
population trends.
Cohen raised a major question - how will the increase of 2m people,
most of them foreigners, affect Singapores multi-racial
fabric?
If you add four or five more ethnicities to it, will it work? he
asked.
It is not a question of numbers, said Cohen who heads the
Laboratory of Populations at the Rockefeller and Columbia
Universities in New York.
Rather, the question to ask is: Will my society hold together as
layers of heterogeneity are added on top of my current ethnic
mix?
While locals watch with a mixture of hope and anxiety, economic
analysts are enthusiastic about what it will do. Many see it as a
catalyst for a boom.
The heavy influx of talent and wealth will improve fundamentals and
boost growth to an average of 6% a year for the next decade.
Singapore is one of the most exciting stories among world cities,
said a risk evaluator on CNBC.
He sees the last three years of strong growth as just the start.
Its property values are only half those in Hong Kong and will have
a long way to go.
Most Singaporeans, who are worried about losing out to foreigners,
are however more concerned about immediate needs like jobs and a
fairer pay over the pride of belonging to a world city.
what's so proud about belonging to a world city when one is treated
like 2nd class citizen?
