Food, water and a question of
stability
By Li Xueying
Feb 14, 2007
The Straits Times
RAISING Singapore's population from 4.5 million to 6.5 million will
also raise a host of issues that can pose a threat to
stability.
They include making sure there is enough food and water, that the
environment is not damaged by pollution and not least of all,
social stability.
These factors were highlighted by visiting population expert Joel
Cohen at a public lecture yesterday.
One question he posed is whether Singapore's multi-racial fabric
can withstand the pressure from the extra two million people - of
whom foreign immigrants will form a significant portion. 'If you
add four or five more ethnicities to it, will it work?' he asked,
in response to a question on whether the new population goal
announced last week was an optimum figure.
It is not a question of numbers, he said. Rather, the question to
ask is: 'Will my society hold together as layers of heterogeneity
are added on top of my current ethnic mix?'
Prof Cohen heads the Laboratory of Populations at the Rockefeller
and Columbia Universities in New York.
During his lecture, organised by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public
Policy, he gave a macro view of the world's human population trends
and their implications.
But the interest among some in the audience of 100 students and
academics was clear - they wanted his views on Singapore's new
target of 6.5 million.
Is it optimum, and what are the factors that he will advise the
Government to look out for?
While he demurred from commenting specifically on Singapore, Prof
Cohen offered some insights on what the country should
consider.
Other issues to look at include: Where will the food and water to
feed the extra people be coming from? 'Singapore does not grow its
food, so it is dependent on a world economy that permits trade. If
there is no trade, Singapore is sunk,' he said.
Thus, it needs to determine if the global geo-political situation
allows peaceful trading to continue in the long term.
Another factor is whether the country is educating its people
sufficiently so that they will 'have something to offer in exchange
for food'. As for the environment, the question is: Can the
population be transported without pollution?
Singapore's target adds to the ballooning global population that is
predicted to grow from 6.6 billion now to 9.1 billion by 2050,
assuming the world's fertility rate continues its present pace of
decline.
Not every country will boom: The developed world's population will
shrink by one million a year, while the developing world's will
swell by 35 million each year.
