I think the Americans are locked in a Catch-22 situation in
Iraq, wanna withdraw also cannot withdraw. Withdraw and you would
see a regional conflict along secterian lines - most prob the
Saudis and the whole gang will support the Sunnis and the Iranians
support the Shites. A couple of weeks ago, the Jordanians announce
that they are exploring a possible nuclear programme. So if America
withdraws, the consequances will be unimaginable. However, if they
dun withdraw, they can only sustain and preserve the current
situation. There are just too many factions with their self-vested
interest in line playing the game, so it's almost impossible to
make them come to a consensus which will benefit all.
America, with 160,000 troops on the ground just lack the manpower
to bring about any credible changes on the ground using sheer
military force, esp with the Iranians cementing their foothold
within the Shite community and the Sunnis turning to Al-Qaeda. This
so called 'surge' is the last throw of the dice la, if the American
forces fail to pacify Baghdad and the Sunni areas, the future of
Iraq looks bleak as it already is.