North Korea may have hoped to intimidate Japan's new Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe by pledging a nuclear test, but wound up
playing into his hands, analysts said.
Abe, who took office last week, faced his first crisis as he
prepared to head to China and South Korea on a breakthrough tour to
repair tense relations.
North Korea may have wanted to drive a fresh wedge between Japan
and neighboring countries, which have taken a softer approach to
Pyongyang, but its saber-rattling will also vindicate Abe at home,
analysts said.
Abe, 52, rose to prominence through his tough talk on North Korea.
He has an unabashedly conservative agenda that includes rewriting
the US-imposed 1947 pacifist Constitution.
"In many ways this will make life easier for Abe. He has always had
a strong anti-North Korean position. Now he can say, `I told you
so,'" said Phil Deans, a professor of international affairs at
Temple University in Tokyo.
"He will be able to use this to say, look, we can't always rely on
the United States. The time has come for Japan to act -- standing
with its allies, but on its own feet," Deans said.
He said a North Korean nuclear test will also boost a hardline
minority who believe Japan -- the only nation to suffer nuclear
attack -- should acquire atomic weapons on its own.
Abe has not called for nuclear weapons. But he wants Japan to have
a military in name -- not the "Self-Defense Forces" as it is now
known -- which would take a larger role overseas.
His views are unpopular in Asian countries that have been invaded
by Japan. But China and South Korea said on Wednesday they will
host Abe next week in a bid to repair ties strained over history
issues under his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi.
North Korea has now managed to steal some of the focus of Abe's
diplomacy.
"It may be that his record and hostility toward North Korea has
aided those in the North who wanted to take a more provocative
stance, saying that now that this man is in charge there's no point
to compromise," Deans said.
North Korea, in a statement on Tuesday announcing its plans, made
no direct reference to Japan. Pyongyang said it would test nuclear
weapons because of hostility and financial sanctions by the
US.
But even if North Korea's main concern was not Japan, it provides a
first test for Abe, analysts said.
Masao Okonogi, a professor of North Korean studies at Tokyo's Keio
University, said the neighboring countries would shun Japanese
attempts to impose further sanctions on the North.
"This weekend's summits with Beijing and Seoul will inevitably show
the differences in stance on the North between Tokyo and the two
Asian neighbors," Okonogi said.
Abe, speaking in parliament last Wednesday, pledged to use his
upcoming visit to form a united front on North Korea.
It was a change in tone from July, when Abe -- then the top aide to
Koizumi -- rattled neighboring countries by suggesting a
theoretical pre-emptive attack on the communist state.
Japanese are particularly concerned as Pyongyang fired a missile
over the country's main island in 1998. The test led Japan to team
up with the US on missile defense and to ease its longstanding ban
on weapons exports.
Robert Dujarric, a North Korea expert based in Tokyo, said the true
test of Abe's intentions will be whether he seeks to step up
military spending, which has declined in recent years as Japan
battles a ballooning public debt.
"This will probably push Abe to be a little more aggressive
verbally. But what to watch is what it does to Japan's defense,"
Dujarric said.
"This is good for those who are perceived as being hawkish in
Japan, because the soft line of `let's negotiate with North Korea'
looks weaker and weaker," he said.
