INDIA
A Superpower in the Making?
The rise of this growing nation will change the balance of power in
Asia—and potentially the world.
W
ith nearly 1.1 billion inhabitants, India is the second largest
country on earth in population, and seventh largest in geographical
area, over 1.1 million square miles. This is almost 1,000 people
for every square mile of area nationwide—much denser than even
China.
Since achieving independence from British rule in 1947, it has seen
its share of conflict, struggle and setbacks. Although India still
faces many challenges, it is now poised to reach a higher position
on the world scene than at any previous time.
The Indian economy has grown an average of around 6% annually over
the past decade and 8% per year over the past three years—among the
fastest rates in the world. It boasts an emerging middle class and
increasing gross domestic product, exports, employment and foreign
investment. This is complemented by a roaring stock market (index
value up by a third in 2005 and by 200% since 2001), low external
debt and large foreign exchange reserves.
Recent visits from leaders and officials from the United States,
France, Germany and Russia have spotlighted India’s rise. These
wealthier nations see India as a trading partner with enormous
potential.
Although it has not yet matched the financial performance of
China—currently the fastest-growing economy in the world—according
to some analysts, India shows even more long-term potential for
rapid growth. Leaders from both nations have discussed the creation
of a Chinese-Indian common market based on the European Union
model. Although only an idea at present, if realized, it would be
the largest economic system in the world, home for about 2.5
billion consumers—almost 40% of the human race (or 3 of every 8
people on earth)!
India’s growth becomes more impressive in light of the fact that it
is driven by a fraction of its population. Much of the nation
remains a picture of rural poverty. Nearly all foreign investment
in India goes to its six most urban states, with 22 other less
developed states virtually ignored. This gap between city and
country is keenly felt in places such as Gurgaon, a suburb of the
Indian capital New Delhi: “In a land still plagued by deep poverty
and backwardness, Gurgaon has become a renowned home of
international call centers, business-processing operations, and
information-technology firms. There are gleaming, glass-paned
high-tech towers, condominium blocks, multiplexes, and shopping
malls, where Indians dine at Ruby Tuesday, browse for Samsung
electronics, or kick the tires at a Toyota, Ford, or Chevy dealer.
If one overlooks the dusty pockets of poverty nearby, a few water
buffaloes picking at garbage near shantytowns, the look is more
Southern California office park than the India of yore” (U.S. News
and World Report).
Despite the problems seen in India’s underdeveloped countryside—for
example, massive unmet infrastructure needs; more illiterate
citizens than any other single nation—there are several areas in
which the nation excels. These particular specialized talents have
allowed a tiny percentage of the populace—perhaps less than 1%—to
spearhead its move toward a higher standing in the world
order.
Intellectual Capital
India’s economy is divided between agriculture (which accounts for
a quarter of the gross national product), manufacturing
(constituting another quarter) and the high-tech service sector,
which now makes up fully half of the gross national product.
Striving to become a “knowledge superpower,” it hopes to skip the
intermediate step of industrial development that has preceded other
nations’ march into the Information Age.
Scientific and information technology companies from around the
world are opening research and development labs in India—more than
100 in the past five years. One mainstay of the new economy is
software development, with ever more global firms outsourcing to
India the time-intensive work of programming. Businesses worldwide
also rely on the country for customer service—phone calls from
around the world are directed to call centers in Indian cities such
as Bangalore. Other developing markets include pharmaceutical and
biotechnology research. Currently, the majority of top American
companies send some of their IT work to India, and there is little
evidence of a slowdown in this trend.
The business world is also looking in India’s direction. Graduates
of the nation’s business programs are in high demand among
multinational corporations, with each graduating class commanding a
higher average salary than the one before. Those who complete MBA
degrees at schools such as the Indian Institute of Management can
now expect starting salaries ranging from $75,000 (USD) at Indian
firms to over $200,000 outside the country. This is comparable to
graduates of top American business schools such as Harvard,
Stanford and Dartmouth—testimony to the market value of Indian
talent in this area of study.
Military Buildup
As its clout has grown, India has placed a high priority on
improving its military capabilities as well.
New Delhi has not joined 187 other nations in signing the Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), and appeared on the world’s radar
screen as a nuclear-armed nation in May 1998, with the detonation
of five warheads in the desert near the border of Pakistan. This
disturbed many governments around the globe, naturally including
that of Pakistan, which responded with nuclear tests of its
own.
This stand-off was the turning point that began India’s pursuit of
a full-fledged nuclear weapons program. According to The Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists, additional nuclear missile tests occurred
in the summer of 2004; since then, the Indian Defense Ministry has
earmarked $2 billion annually to build 300 to 400 weapons over the
next 5 to 7 years.
India maintains a “no first strike” nuclear policy, and asserts
that it only seeks enough nuclear weaponry to effectively deter
aggressors. U.S. President George W. Bush, during a March 2006
visit with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, announced
cooperation between the two countries on civilian nuclear programs,
and had previously called India a “responsible” nuclear nation (Der
Spiegel). These measures drew an American diplomatic line between
India and other nations that have nixed participation in the NPT,
such as North Korea and Iran.
Whatever its nuclear aspirations, the country has a long military
shopping list. Last year, it announced plans to build the first
aircraft carrier ever put to sea by a developing nation, and to
lease two nuclear submarines from Russia. America has openly
discussed the sale of naval vessels, combat aircraft, patrol
aircraft and helicopters to India. One former U.S. ambassador to
India opined, “Of course we should sell advanced weaponry to India.
The million-man Indian army actually fights, unlike the post-modern
militaries of many of our European allies” (The Economist).
A Turning Point in Relations With China?
Many have compared India’s pattern of growth to its neighbor,
China. The countries have much in common—physical borders, immense
populations, similar challenges, ancient civilizations, and
quickly-rising economies. India also measures itself against China,
coveting its economic power and international standing, including
its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.
Though a degree of tension does remain between the two nations,
with lingering memories of the brief 1962 war in which China
soundly defeated India, the relationship between these two Asian
giants is warming up. Trade between them is now increasing at a
vigorous pace, and diplomatic relations are at a post-1962
highpoint. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, during a recent visit
to New Delhi, hailed cooperation between the two nations as the
driving force of a new “Asian Century.” Indian Prime Minister Singh
spoke of the potential for India and China to rearrange the world
order by working together.
Many have pointed out that their economic strengths seem to be
tailor-made for a partnership. India seeks to be a major player in
the computer software world in the same way that China is in the
area of hardware. Cooperation between Beijing and New Delhi could
prove a dominant force in the information technology market.
Both nations have a voracious appetite for natural resources, and a
recent energy deal neatly symbolized the new Sino-Indian dynamic:
India acquired a 20% share in the development of the largest
onshore oil field in Iran. The venture happens to be operated, and
50% owned, by Sinopec—China’s state-run oil company.
However, India could seek to undercut China’s manufacturing prices
(as China did with many Southeast Asian countries in the 1990s).
But it is more likely to pursue a different segment of the world
market by producing higher-quality goods, as well as entirely
different products.
Time will tell exactly how the relationship will mix competition
and cooperation. These two nations both aspire to “first-world”
status—and economic gains could be the incentive for a more tightly
allied Asia.
Between East and West
With its newfound power, India faces a dilemma: Should it
ultimately pursue closer ties with Western nations, or with other
Asian countries?
After India gained independence, its first prime minister spoke of
an Asian renaissance, envisioning a tightly bound continent
changing the post-World War II landscape. Though premature at the
time, the idea is now more feasible than any time since the Cold
War era. Along with the improving relations with China, India is
also friendly with Russia and Japan. And, as of 2004, the value of
India’s trade with other Asian nations surpassed that of exchange
with the United States and Western Europe put together
(International Herald Tribune).
But the United States—after courting India’s arch-rival Pakistan as
an ally in the war on terror after the September 11 attacks—is now
distancing itself somewhat from the current Islamabad regime led by
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, focusing on India instead.
India’s common ground with the U.S. includes liberal democratic
government, capitalism and, among the more educated urban
residents, the English language.
However, America’s courting of India is viewed by some as a way to
limit and contain Chinese influence in Asia. Some Indians resent
this perception of their nation as a pawn of the U.S. Though they
appreciate the American lifestyle and culture, much of the Indian
population still sees this lone superpower as a bully.
While it may be able to dance with both partners alternately for a
while, India will eventually be forced to choose. Which way will
this nation turn?
“Kings of the East”
We need not merely guess where world events will ultimately lead.
While many of the details remain to be seen, the overall framework
of the future has been recorded in advance in one book—the Holy
Bible.
In nations such as India, the size of population alone pulls them
toward superpower status. Bible prophecy describes global power
blocs—superpowers, or groups of superpowers—that will be prominent
at the end of the age, shortly before Jesus Christ returns.
These powers will be based in the north (Europe), the south (the
Arab world), and the “kings of the East”—a group of Asian nations
that will band together, eventually fielding a standing army of two
hundred million (Rev. 16:12; 9:16; Dan. 11)!
The nations of the West, including the United States, are headed
for hard times as a result of their national and personal sins
against the God that inspired the Bible. He reveals that they will
be forsaken by their allies, called “lovers” in Scripture:
“And when you are spoiled, what will you do? Though you clothe
yourself with crimson, though you deck yourself with ornaments of
gold, though you rend your face with painting, in vain shall you
make yourself fair; your lovers will despise you, they will seek
your life…All your lovers have forgotten you; they seek you not;
for I have wounded you with the wound of an enemy, with the
chastisement of a cruel one, for the multitude of your iniquity;
because your sins were increased” (Jer. 4:30; 30:14).
India is today one of these “lovers,” but one that will soon prove
to be something very different. So will other nations that Western
countries now consider to be allies.
Keep watching India’s growth toward superpower status—just one part
of the inevitable rise of Asia!
