Associated Press
U.S. Weighs Shootdown of N. Korea Missile
By ROBERT BURNS , 06.20.2006, 07:26 PM
The Bush administration is weighing responses to a possible North
Korean missile test that include attempting to shoot it down in
flight over the Pacific, defense officials told The Associated
Press on Tuesday.
Because North Korea is secretive about its missile operations, U.S.
officials say they must consider the possibility that an
anticipated test would turn out to be something else, such as a
space launch or even an attack. Thus, the Pentagon is considering
the possibility of attempting an interception, two defense
officials said, even though it would be unprecedented and is not
considered the likeliest scenario.
The officials agreed to discuss the matter only on condition of
anonymity because of its political sensitivity.
Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said he could not say whether the
unproven multibillion-dollar U.S. anti-missile defense system might
be used in the event of a North Korean missile launch. That system,
which includes a handful of missiles that could be fired from
Alaska and California, has had a spotty record in tests.
Although shooting down a North Korean missile is a possibility, the
Pentagon also must consider factors that would argue against such a
response, including the risk of shooting and missing and of
escalating tensions further with the communist nation.
Even if there were no attempt to shoot down a North Korean missile,
it would be tracked by early warning satellites and radars,
including radars based on ships near Japan and ground-based radars
in Alaska and California.
Robert Einhorn, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, said a U.S. shootdown of a North Korean
missile on a test flight or a space launch would draw "very strong
international reaction" against the United States. He saw only a
small chance that the U.S. would attempt a shootdown.
Signs of North Korean preparations to launch a long-range ballistic
missile, possibly with sufficient range to reach U.S. territory,
have grown in recent weeks, although it is unclear whether the
missile has been fully fueled. U.S. officials said Monday the
missile was apparently fully assembled and fueled, but others have
since expressed some uncertainty.
Bush administration officials have urged the North Koreans publicly
and privately not to conduct the missile test, which would end a
moratorium in place since 1999. That ban was adopted after Japan
and other nations expressed outrage over an August 1998 launch in
which a North Korean missile flew over northern Japan.
At the time of the 1998 launch, the United States had no means of
shooting down a long-range missile in flight. Since then, the
Pentagon has developed a rudimentary system that it says is capable
of defending against a limited number of missiles in an emergency -
with a North Korean attack particularly in mind.
The Government Accountability Office, Congress' investigative arm,
says the Pentagon has spent $91 billion on missile defense over the
past two decades.
The 1998 event turned out to be a space launch rather than a
missile test; U.S. officials said the satellite failed to reach
orbit.
U.S. and international concern about North Korea's missile
capability is heightened by its claims to have developed nuclear
weapons. It is not known whether they have mastered the complex art
of building a nuclear warhead small enough to fit a long-range
missile, although in April 2005 the director of the Defense
Intelligence Agency, Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, told Congress that
North Korea was capable of arming a missile with a nuclear warhead.
U.S. officials have since called it a "theoretical
capability."
No administration official has publicly raised the possibility of
bombing the North Korean missile before it can be launched. Jan
Lodel, a senior Pentagon policy official during the Clinton
administration, said in an interview Tuesday that he would not rule
out a pre-emptive strike. He said it would be the surest away of
eliminating the threat of being surprised by the launch of a
Taepodong-2, an intercontinental ballistic missile that some
believe has enough range to reach U.S. territory.
David Wright, a senior scientist at the private Union of Concerned
Scientists, said he strongly doubts that the Bush administration
could back up its claims of having the capability to shoot down a
North Korean missile.
"I consider it to be rhetorical posturing," Wright said. "It
currently has no demonstrated capability."
The last time the Pentagon registered a successful test in
intercepting a mock warhead in flight was in October 2002. Since
then, there have been three unsuccessful attempted intercepts, most
recently in February 2005.
Rick Lehner, chief spokesman for the Pentagon's Missile Defense
Agency, said the next intercept test is scheduled for the
August-September period, to be followed by another before the end
of the year. Lehner said that beginning about a year ago, the
system has periodically been placed in "operational status."
Baker Spring, a Heritage Foundation analyst and strong advocate of
U.S. missile defenses, said he believes that "in theoretical terms"
the U.S. system is a capable of defeating a North Korean missile.
And he thinks that if the North Koreans launched on a flight
pattern that appeared threatening to the United States, the
administration "would be well within its rights" under
international law to shoot down the missile.
The Washington Times reported Tuesday that the Pentagon has placed
its missile defense system in an active status for potential
use.
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