Philip Bowring of Intl Herald Tribune thinks that it would be
another decade before Singaporeans vote out the PAP.
Singapore beyond Lee
Philip Bowring. International Herald Tribune
May 10, 2006
HONG KONG - Every regime has its day, so the result of Saturday's
election in Singapore provided a glimpse of what its politics may
look like when Lee Kuan Yew, founder and mentor of the People's
Action Party (PAP) and scourge of all opponents, is no longer
around.
At 82, he played an active role in this campaign.
For sure, his son, Lee Hsien Loong, fighting his first election as
prime minister, was able to claim that winning the same number of
seats as in the previous election - 82 out of 84 - was "a clear
vote of confidence" in his administration.
However, the more relevant statistic was that the PAP's share of
the vote fell by 8.7 percentage points to 66.6 percent compared
with the 2001 election, when Goh Chok Tong was prime
minister.
In Lee Hsien Loong's constituency, uncontested in 2001, the PAP
polled marginally less than its average.
Given a strong economy, the opposition's lack of significant media
access and the huge organisational and legal obstacles placed in
its way by a PAP leadership, with open disregard for the benefits
of liberal democracy with a strong opposition and the possibility
of a change of government, the result could be seen as the biggest
setback for the PAP since 1981.
That was the year when the PAP lost a by-election to an opposition
lawyer, J.B. Jeyaretnam. With it went a monopoly in Parliament the
PAP had enjoyed Since 1968.
Jeyaretnam later lost an action brought by the government and in
1986 was made bankrupt and disbarred from Parliament and legal
practice.
The judicial committee of the Privy Council, to which appeal on the
issue of disbarment was then available, found that he suffered "a
grievous injustice."
He was ultimately reinstated as a lawyer. In 2001, Jeyaretnam was
bankrupted again following his failure to pay damages in libel
actions brought by ministers.
Since 1981 the electoral system has also been changed so that most
members Of Parliament are now elected from five or six member
constituencies where the PAP's organisational strength and
connections to the government machinery overwhelm the much-harassed
opposition candidates.
Districts that have elected opposition members have previously been
threatened with official neglect.
The opposition won two of the nine single-member constituencies,
but none of the group ones.
But in one where a well-known young liberal activist, James Gomez,
was a candidate up against Foreign Minister George Yeo, it got 44
percent.
The PAP leadership continues to make great play of its success
in
government, as though it were entirely responsible for the economic
rise of Singapore over the past 40 years.
It accuses those who query current policies of being ungrateful for
the past achievements of the leaders.
But what an increasing number of people appear to recognise is that
other economies in East Asia have done at least as well over that
period - Hong Kong under an undemocratic but liberal colonial-style
bureaucracy, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand under both democratic
and authoritarian regimes.
Indeed, Singapore stands out in East Asia not for exceptional
economic success but for the immobility of politics still dominated
by the presence of Lee Kuan Yew, in power since 1959.
Its system would come in for more scrutiny internationally if it
were not so useful to US strategic interests and foreign
multinationals or so successful in subduing the foreign media with
carrots and sticks.
The Singapore leadership likes to scorn the "instability" of Asian
liberal democracies such as Thailand, the Philippines and
Taiwan.
But at some point it will likely have to address demands for
greater openness and for power-sharing with middle and lower income
groups, which have benefited from economic growth but feel excluded
from power.
The PAP is a small, tight-knit party. The leadership controls
the
government bureaucracy and the state-owned enterprises, which play
a large part in an economy that is dominated by multinationals and
state enterprises.
The PAP has such a grip on the levers of power that it could be a
long time before any opposition can pretend to be an alternative
government.
Opposition leaders like Jeyaretnam and Chee Soon Juan, who threaten
to gain popular momentum, have been successfully sued and
financially ruined.
There is also the unspoken fear of Muslim-majority Malaysia and
Indonesia, and the importance of Chinese identity, to keep the
majority in line.
But none of this can cover up the fact that the PAP has been
losing
popularity.
There are those who will always follow Lee Kuan Yew but have less
respect for the second generation headed by the elder son, Hsien
Loong, and the daughter-in-law, Ho Ching, who runs Temasek, the
giant state holding company.
Low income groups note high and rising income gaps (which would be
even bigger if the army of very low paid foreign workers is
included).
Small businessmen resent the dominance of foreign investors and
huge state enterprises. A younger generation is anxious for the
greater social and political freedoms now enjoyed in much of the
rest of Asia.
And an aging population that has generally been supportive of
the
government now finds that decades of forced savings have had such
low returns that a comfortable retirement is not in sight.
But it could be another decade before Singaporeans decide that
enough is enough, and have their own velvet revolution.
(International Herald Tribune)