Where have all the voters gone to? From littlespeck.com
Population
The shift intensifies
Only 45,000 more Singaporean voters in last 5 years, lowest rise in
modern history, thanks to globalisation. By Seah Chiang Nee.
Feb 26, 2006
The newly released registration of voters, in advance of the coming
general election, has revealed the significant extent of
Singapore's demographic shift.
It shows the number of new registered voters in the past five years
has increased by a paltry 45,000 - or just 9,000 a year - despite a
rising population.
The new voters are people who had reached 21 years old as well as
foreigners who got citizenship during the period.
This is surprisingly low considering Singapore's birthrate two
decades ago when this cohort of voters was born was around 45,000
to 50,000 a year.
By extension - all else being equal - the increase in new voters
should have been around 220,000 (subtracting deaths) - not just
45,000 - over the past five years, so where are the missing
Singaporeans?
At the peak, the number of new voters rose from 1.192 million in
the 1976 election to 1.424 million in 1980, a four-year increase of
231,900.
This was a rise of 58,000 a year - six times more than at
present.
Since then, the statistics had been mixed, some years better than
others, but generally the trend had been downward.
The current rise of 9,000 new voters a year is about the lowest in
modern history.
Since 1998, the number of new voters had been growing by less than
10,000 a year, a pale comparison of the past pre-global
years.
The following table (official statistics) shows the general decline
between elections since 1968, when independent Singapore held its
first election.
Parliamentary Elections
Year/Registered voters/increase in new voters
1968: 944,700 (new)
1972: 1,010,500 +65,800 (4 years)
1976 1,192,360 +181,860 (4 years)
1980 1,424,260 +231,900 (4 years)
1984 1,618,560 +194,300 (4 years)
1988 1,741,330 +122,770 (4 years)
1991 1,851,210 +109,880 (3 years)
1997 2,076,210 +225,000 (5 years)
2001 2,113,540 +37,330 (4 years)
2006 2,158,439 +45,000 (5 years)
This figure is not new but it merely reflects a trend that dates
back about 10 years, especially since Asia's financial crisis in
1997.
It also means the growth in new voters has been dropping even as
the population is rising.
The reasons? Broadly speaking, it is due to more Singaporeans
migrating or moving overseas to work, study or do business, some
bringing along their families.
With the exception of some 800 people, they are non-voters.
(Voting is compulsory, and anyone who doesn't do so has to
re-register by proving they were out of the country. The lower
figure could also include some people who have failed to
re-register.)
At the same time, some 30,000 foreigners are taking up PR -
permanent residency - a year, inflating the population but who are
not eligible to vote.
The real reason, however, lies in economic globalisation and
China's opening up. They eliminate jobs in some countries, while
creating new opportunities in others.
This has resulted in a great trans-national movement of business
and talent worldwide as skilled workers move freely in search of
opportunities.
It has affected Singapore more because of its small size.
The exact number of Singaporeans who are living abroad is not
known, but various official sources have put it at between 100,000
and 150,000.
A head count is hard to do. The future intention of many overseas
Singaporeans remains uncertain.
An increasing number of better-educated citizens take up PR, but
not citizenship, in their host countries. This indicates they still
keep one foot at home for a possible return.
Those who emigrated in the past decade generally found Singapore
too small or restrictive and have opted for a more relaxed
lifestyle in larger countries like Australia, the United States,
Canada and Britain.
Some may decide to settle down in their new homes, while others
will eventually return when opportunities improve.
Numbering thousands every year, the exodus has long caused
heartache to Singaporean leaders who have worked for decades
building up the republic from a Third to a First World state.
Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew once shed tears over the exodus of
professionals, and Goh Chok Tong, the Senior Minister, called the
emigrants "quitters".
The current Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong also emotionally
recalled the tough qualities of older Singaporeans, who stood in
the heavy rains to celebrate National Day in 1968.
Since then, however, the leadership has accepted the
inevitable.
As more tertiary-trained youths leave to work abroad, it encourages
them to explore opportunities overseas but maintain their links
with home.
Singapore is likened to a capital without a country, so the current
strategy is to regard the world as its hinterland.
It has been investing in strategic businesses throughout the
region, requiring more citizens to work overseas.
As a result, the country is undergoing vast demographic changes, as
shown by the declining number of new voters.
Its own birth rates are in sharp decline. Last year only 37,600
babies were born, one of the world's lowest. The future lies in
inward immigration.
This has been stepped up drastically in the past decade, steadily
pushing up the population. In fact, the influx of foreign PRs has
outweighed the outflow of citizens by several times.
They are believed to be more than the number of babies born, which
would lead to a long-term dilution of the local content of the
population.
The population rose from 4.24 million in 2004 to 4.35 million last
year, an increase of about 111,000, some 80% of which were said to
be foreign immigrants.
Only some 30% of PRs eventually take up citizenship.
The blueprint is for a population of six to seven million by 2020.
Many locals are angry about losing jobs to foreigners but officials
say the end result will be a more vibrant global city.
