http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17517118%255E12250,00.html
US seeks new path to China
Editor-at-Large Paul Kelly from Washington
December 10, 2005
CONCEALED by the Iraq crisis, the Bush administration guided by
Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick is engaged in potentially
the most far-reaching redefinition of US policy towards China for
many years.
In a 45-minute interview with Inquirer in his State Department
office in Washington, DC, Zoellick repudiates any suggestion of
containment as a basis for US policy. Zoellick throws into the
dustbin of history the notion of containment, Cold War parallels or
19th-century balance-of-power concepts as the foundation for
Washington's management of China's rise.
The Zoellick interview offers a new framework for the US's approach
to China: that of shared stakeholder in the international system
calling on China to accept the responsibilities as well as the
benefits of the global system.
This is fresh US thinking and language about China. It has the
potential to create a new platform for US-China relations. It
should be music to Australia's ears, and it raises another
possibility forgotten in Australia: that America's approach towards
China is far more sophisticated than Australia's.
Zoellick's message is that "the US welcomes a confident, peaceful
and prosperous China". He offers China an invitation "to work with
us to shape the future international system".
For China's leaders, this is an invitation and a challenge. For the
US political system, it presents China as an opportunity, not a
threat. Zoellick's aim is to change the mind-set of the US-China
debate; he is explicit about seeking a transformation.
While Zoellick would never concede this, his China vision stands as
an alternative to the portrait of military rivalry depicted by
Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, notably in his June 4 Singapore
speech.
Rumsfeld and Zoellick, typical of the Bush administration, offer
competing stories about China. But this term the State Department,
under Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, is more formidable and
Zoellick, officially described as Rice's "principal deputy, adviser
and alter ego" has the running on China.
Zoellick's concept was first advanced in a September21 speech
before the national committee on US-China relations and was
expanded upon in his December6 interview with this paper. It is
already the subject of intense debate within China's system and
among its leaders.
Zoellick's framework dominates the US-China dialogue, inaugurated
in Beijing last July and which had its second session in Washington
last week involving Zoellick and China's executive vice-foreign
minister, Dai Bingguo.
"What I tried to do in the [September] speech was set out why the
Cold War logic of containment no longer applies," Zoellick says.
"In fact, it's in direct contradiction with our efforts to
integrate China. But I also take this a step further. I say that
19th-century balance of power logic also doesn't conform with the
current process of integration.
"However, I point out to the Chinese that it is natural that as a
rising power they will prompt questions about their intentions and
if they are not successful in dealing with that, then it will lead
to hedging strategies.
"So I'm not setting out a view that is all benign. I'm trying to
engage the Chinese very seriously: on the one hand paying them the
respect they're due for what they've accomplished but, second,
urging them to recognise the larger responsibilities they now have
in the international system."
Zoellick says the US must "encourage China to become a responsible
stakeholder". This means working "with us to sustain the
international system". It is a framework to encompass the entire
US-China debate.
"Our discussions [with China] focus on how this concept can be
applied across a whole range of policy issues: economic, energy,
security, nuclear non-proliferation, terrorism and regional
security. The challenge of the dialogue is not only to engage
people at a conceptual level but start to connect it to operational
implications," Zoellick says.
Highlighting this symbolism, Zoellick plans to take his Chinese
counterpart Dai to former US president Franklin Roosevelt's Hyde
Park home in New York.
"FDR was associated with developing a concert of powers after World
War II," Zoellick says, pointing to the UN and Bretton Woods as
examples. "What I am suggesting to the Chinese is that rather than
keeping China contained or at arm's length or in balance, we are
trying to urge China to play a role in this system of systems that
has evolved."
For Zoellick, the threat to the US comes not from China but from
Islamist terrorists. It comes from failing states, not a rising
Asia.
"China does not want a conflict with the US," he says. "In my view
the real security threat today is one of Islamic radical terrorism,
part linked to weapons of mass destruction."
To highlight the real threat, Zoellick invokes the published letter
intercepted by US intelligence from al-Qa'ida leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri to his terrorist commander in Iraq, Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi, and says: "It is a striking document that gives you
insights into how these people view the world.
"Their goal is to set up a new caliphate, throw out all the
infidels - that's us - throw out all the apostates, that's most of
the Muslims in Southeast Asia. Now, this view doesn't accept the
international system that exists. But that's not China's
view."
He rejects the claim that China today is the Soviet Union of the
1940s. "I believe they are unlike the Soviet Union," he says.
"China is not trying to challenge the fundamental system. The
Soviet Union never accepted international partners in capitalism.
The Soviet Union had a notion of imperial expansion. China has not
taken that strategy."
Zoellick points to prominent Chinese such as chairman of the China
Reform Forum, Zheng Bijan, who argues (Foreign Affairs,
September-October) that China's strategy depends on peace.
"Contrary to China challenging the international system, China is
using the international system as part of its development path,"
Zoellick says.