Taiwan-China Issue

Gun SG

1C2S is working. Question is what sort of system that works for greater China ? Will DPP's pro-independence a solution to end all ? Is that a win-win situation ? You have a better suggestion than those commies ?

sgdiehard SG

don't think the taiwanese care anymore. Now attention is turned to the saga between the late Ni Min Ran and Xia Yi. One Taiwanese and the other shanghainese, still the cross straits relationship. Mainland chinese and taiwanese chinese cannot be separated. So please find a solution that makes both happy, don't just say which one doesn't work, or don't trust who.

suntze SG

So please find a solution that makes both happy,

In the recent legislative election, the Taiwanese have voted for DPP and the message is clear. The majority don't want reunification, at least, not at the moment.

IMO, there won't be a solution that makes both sides happy. The "solution" which will prevail for some time into the future, will be status quo.

It will make both sides least unhappy.

skyfoo SG

i think that one day one of the china leaders will realise it’s stupid for this to carry on and all will go well

sgdiehard SG

The turn out rate of the last election was less than 30% and the real loser was Soong. The majority of a minority does not tell the whole story.

To me, what the people says is that they are not interested in voting anymore and they believe the outcome, whatever it is, will not make any difference.

Status quo, for the moment, seems to be the best.

Blueray SG

You obviously have very little knowledge of HongKong. When Asian Financial crisis struck HK in 1997,

1.Properties prices went down. Shenzhen and other Chinese southern cities grew stronger and seriously threaten their position. Many HongKongers now go to these places to purchase real estate properties.
2.Ports in Guangzhou, Zhanjing etc are taking away HK business.
3.Taiwanese can now travel to China via Macau, therefore reduce dependancy on HK airports.
4.HK have to continue to depend on trade, services and finance without manufacturing.
5.Shanghai threatening their position as asia's financial center.

With so much against them, HK has actually done very well.

If u ask me, the biggest joke is on Taiwan. Ever since Ah Bian came into power, their economy is going downhill. Unemployment rate is soaring. As a result their crime rate is also skyrocketing. Read here:

http://www.taiwanheadlines.gov.tw/20010510/20010510o1.html

More and more Taiwanese are losing confidence in the current administration and are migrating elsewhere. Here's the related article:

http://atimes.com/atimes/China/FF30Ad04.html

davidmars SG

There are several reasons for the super-low turn out. The election for the National Assembly was the first ever to ask the voters to vote for party and not individual, adding on to the confusion is the amount of candidates and the lack of education and pre-election promotion. Because of lack of education, many Taiwanese do not know the importance of this election and do not know why they should vote. Finally, the weather on that day was horrendous in many areas of Taiwan, certain parts actually experiences landslides and mudslides. Of course, it can also be said that Taiwanese have been going to the polls too often, which, ironically, is what this National Assembly is charged to change. The proposed changes to the Constitution for the Assembly to consider includes, among others:

Your first link is outdated, it is article written in 2001, that's like 4 years. Unemployment rate and crime rates as well as economy definitely have ample time to change in 4 years.

Your 2nd article describes how Taiwanese gold rush to China. Isn't it the same for many other Asian and even non-Asian countries? Many countries are rushing to China, not just Taiwan. People choose to migrate for a variety of reasons, not just because they're losing confidence in Bian's govt.

suntze SG

[quote]http://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=U&start=2&q=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL%3Fd%3Dww2010.i.taiwan040823&e=9707

August 23, 2004 - Southeast Asian nations are forced to pick sides in the conflict between China and Taiwan
Singapore will support China and Australia will support Taiwan in a conflict between China and Taiwan. (23-Aug-2004) SummaryIncreasing tension between China and Taiwan is forcing Southeast Asian nations to pick sides between the two countries. Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong says that the Taiwanese are ignorant and naïve with respect to Beijing's intentions, and that Taiwan will be destroyed no matter who wins. Australian PM John Howard promises to be a "reliable ally" who will support America in a war with China over Taiwan.
Beijing was outraged when Singapore's Lee Hsien Loong visited Taiwan earlier this month, just before he was sworn in as the new Prime Minister.

Southeast Asia
As a result, Lee had to reassure the Chinese in a nationally televised National Day Rally speech on Sunday that Singapore supports the Beijing's "One China" policy, and that it would side with China if China attacks Taiwan in retaliation for any push for independence.
America expressed concern a few days ago when Australia's Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said, in a visit to Beijing, that Australia was not bound to help the U.S. defend Taiwan.
Prime Minister John Howard came to Downer's "aid" on Friday by saying, "America has no more reliable ally than Australia and I am not ashamed to say that. We have a separate, strong, growing relationship with China and it is not in Australia's interests for there to be conflict between America and China and I will do everything I can, and Mr Downer will do everything he can, to discourage that ever occurring." He added that Australia's existing treaty obligations are clear: "We have to consult and come to each other's aid when we're under attack or involved in conflict. That's the situation."
The fact that both these nations are being forced to announced their intentions in the face of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is just a sign of the growing level of tension.
Singapore
It's very rare for any politician to speak frankly. That's why I want to quote Singapore PM Lee's comments on China and Taiwan at length, and comment on them.
A move by Taiwan towards independence is neither in Singapore's nor the region's interest. If Taiwan goes for independence, Singapore will not recognise it. In fact, no Asian country will recognise it. Nor will European countries.
It's not entirely certain that no Asian or European country will recognize Taiwan. In Europe, Britain will probably join America and Australia in doing so. In Asia, India may do so as well.
For other Southeast Asia countries, the situation is very complicated, much more complicated than it is for Singapore.
As you can see from the adjoining map, Singapore is a tiny island in the midst of Malaysia and Indonesia. However, there are few things that are not apparent from the map.
Singapore has little difficult siding with China, because the Singapore is 80% Chinese and is very wealthy, the wealthiest country, per capita, in the region. Singapore has economic ties to both China and Taiwan, but if forced to choose will side with China for both ethnic and economic reasons.
But Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines are quite different.
Malaysia is 24% Chinese, the Philippines are 1.5% Chinese, and Indonesia is 3% Chinese, and yet the Chinese control most of the economy in all three countries. The ethnic Chinese are the wealthy business and landowners in all three countries, and the indigenous populations, including many Muslims, are poor, often extremely poor, and act as servants of the Chinese. As described in Yale Professor Amy Chua's book, World on Fire, the level of hatred for the wealthy Chinese in these countries is quite high.
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines have not yet been forced to take sides in the conflict between China and Taiwan, and so Lee may have felt free to speak for them in his speech, but his claim is by no means certain.
China will fight. Win or lose, Taiwan will be devastated.
He's certainly correct in this statement. China and America will fight over Taiwan, and as I'm told they say in Africa, "When the elephants fight, it's the grass that gets trampled."
Unfortunately, I met only very few Taiwanese leaders who understood this. The problem is that it will not just be Taiwan that will be badly damaged. It will be a grave setback for the whole region.
This is an interesting statement from the point of view of Generational Dynamics. The great Chinese civil war fought between Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek ended in 1949, and as long as the people who lived through that war were alive, none of them would risk another war between China and Taiwan. But the last generation of people who lived through that war have been disappearing (dying or retiring) in the last few years.
Today, the President of Taiwan is Chen Shui-bian, born in 1950. He has been a leader of the movement for Taiwan independence for decades. As President, Chen has announced that he will amend the Constitution in 2008 to move towards independence.
I came back from Taiwan more troubled than before I went. The ruling party, ... is preoccupied with domestic politics. .... The [opposition party] is preoccupied with challenging the results of the presidential election.... Neither side has had time to think about Taiwan's longer-term future, how to manage relations with China, how best to reconcile the aspirations of the Taiwanese people with the realities of their international position.
There is a stronger Taiwanese identity emerging. More people are speaking in the Taiwanese dialect, or hollow whey. Before Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian became presidents, most Taiwanese people considered themselves Chinese. Now many think of themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. Some [ruling party] leaders told me that they believe a majority of people now support an independent Taiwan and that this has become a mainstream view.
This is exactly the kind of behavior that Generational Dynamics predicts. The generation of leaders in Taiwan today are "generational prophets" that will lead the country into the next major war. They do this by being naïve and uninformed about the danger they're in, and then by overreacting when they're suprised by unexpected threats. That's what's in store for Taiwan in the next few years.
The Taiwanese media are a free-wheeling and parochial lot. They thrive on juicy news and speculation. They chased me around when I was in Taiwan. I wanted to go out of my hotel for breakfast, to eat doujiang youtiao in a coffee shop, but I could not. The newspapers cover almost exclusively domestic news, with very little or no reporting of the international situation - nothing on Iraq, North Korea or the US elections.
This paragraph is close to my heart, because it's also so true of Americans. Younger generations of Americans, born after World War II, are as ignorant of world affairs as the Taiwanese are, and the American media doesn't help. If you've read this far in this article, then you know more about Taiwan and China than 99.9% of other Americans, even Chinese-Americans.
So I do not sense that the Taiwanese people appreciate the international strategic environment, how preoccupied the US is with Iraq and the war on terror, and how interdependent the US and China are becoming. Many do not realise how rapidly China is transforming itself, and how major powers in the world are all repositioning themselves in response to a rising China.
Many Taiwanese believe China will not use force on Taiwan, even if it moves towards independence. They are wrong. When I visited China in May, my sense was that the cross-strait issue was at the top of their agenda and that China is absolutely serious. To China, the 2008 Olympics is a small matter. But preventing Taiwanese independence is crucial to China.

suntze SG

The Taiwanese press speculated that I had visited Taiwan to play a mediator's role between China and Taiwan. It showed they had not understood the situation. I am in no position to play any such role and have no desire to do so. The issue between China and Taiwan is not a misunderstanding that can be resolved by the good offices of an intermediary. It is a fundamental and deep contradiction which will require great skill and restraint on both sides to manage.
There is therefore a real risk of miscalculation and mishap. If a war breaks out across the strait, we will be forced to choose between the two sides. As a friend of both sides, any decision will be painful. But if the conflict is provoked by Taiwan, then Singapore cannot support Taiwan.
It's very unusual for any country's leaders to be so frank as to come close to predicting international war, but that's what Lee is doing, and it's why I wanted to quote his remarks at length.
Australia
When Australian PM John Howard said a couple of days ago that treaty obligations required Australia to side with American if Taiwan is attacked, he was referring to the ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand and the United States) defense security treaty for the Pacific region, signed in 1951.
At that time, Australia was fighting alongside America in the Korean War. At that time, many people believed that World War II could have been prevented if Hitler had been stopped earlier, and the Korean War, and later the Vietnam War, were fought in order to stop communism and prevent a new world war. The ANZUS treaty was signed with that intention in mind.
New Zealand is no longer an active member of ANZUS ever since 1986, when New Zealand banned the entry of US Navy ships into their ports in the belief that they were carrying nuclear weapons or were nuclear-powered. However, ANZUS and the alliance with America has continued to be a foundation of its defense policy.
When Australian Foreign Minister Downer told his Beijing hosts on Wednesday that the ANZUS treaty did not bind Australia to help America defend Taiwan, he suggested that the treaty obligated Australia only if China attacks America.
When John Howard corrected Down by saying, "We are a very close ally of the United States and a faithful ANZUS partner," he was saying that Australia is fully committed to its terms. Howard also said, in a radio interview, that the obligations under the ANZUS treaty were clear and required consultation and to come to the other's aid should it be attacked or became involved in conflict.
Summary
As I described in my discussion of Operation Summer Pulse 04, and Taiwan's Wild Election Battle, the generational changes going on in China and Taiwan are causing Taiwan to become more independent, and are causing China to become more and belligerent towards even small moves by Taiwan towards independence.
Most Americans (and even, according to Singapore's PM Lee, most Taiwanese) believe that China will not oppose Taiwanese independence.
Why should they? Taiwan is already pretty independent. What difference would it make to China if Taiwan became fully independent. Who cares?
China cares. They have to deal with separatist movements in their Western provinces, and not standing up to Taiwan would give those provinces a green light.
Even without that, this is a matter of great principle to the Chinese. They believe, as a matter of national honor, that Taiwan must be part of China. An independent Taiwan would be as unacceptable to China as an independent Alaska would be to America.
The trends in China and Taiwan that are leading to war are not receding. Instead, as generations of cautious older people who remember the 1949 civil war are replaced by new generations of younger people who have no idea what war is like, the trends toward war are swelling. A war with China would also lead to anti-Chinese civil wars in China, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. It's very hard to see how full scale war in the Pacific region can be avoided in the next few years.

Blueray SG

I am living in China right now. I have met a lot of Taiwanese in Shanghai, Tianjin, Hangzhou etc. Most of these Taiwanese I met are in their 20s , 30s and 40s. When I ask them the reasons for coming to the mainland, most of them will tell me it is bcos they are fed up with the politics in Taiwan and the other most common reason is bcos they cannot find jobs in Taiwan and have to go elsewhere for work. What does this tells u of the employment market in Taiwan?

As for the 2nd article, it clearly states that the reasons for Taiwanese migration to China is not just bcos of the $$$, it is also bcos of the fact that Taiwanese are becoming more and more pessimistic of the situation in Taiwan. Quoting from the 2nd article:

Apart from businessmen, the white-collar bourgeoisie, who feel pessimistic about Taiwan, also are joining the increasing exodus.

The 2nd article is barely a year old.

sgdiehard SG

Originally posted by davidmars:
[b]

There are several reasons for the super-low turn out. The election for the National Assembly was the first ever to ask the voters to vote for party and not individual, adding on to the confusion is the amount of candidates and the lack of education and pre-election promotion. Because of lack of education, many Taiwanese do not know the importance of this election and do not know why they should vote. Finally, the weather on that day was horrendous in many areas of Taiwan, certain parts actually experiences landslides and mudslides. .......b]

No dispute on the reasons but whatever the reasons, the result of an election with a turnout rate of 23% cannot be used to conclude that "..........the Taiwanese have voted for DPP and the message is clear. The majority don't want reunification, at least, not at the moment. "

sting_760 SG

No obviously One Country Two system isn't working for HK on long run let alone the autonomy, if not there wouldn't be so many problems ever since they had lost the British dependency, its the policy we're talking about not financial crisis, much of its economic importance owes to its excellent transport links plus well mannerly administration. The total area of HK is barely 400 sq miles of islands, its clear from the beginning that the majority of the land-mass coastal cities are outset to take over it ever since the 80s under programme of modernizations begun under Mao but accelerated in the late 70s, the financial crisis merely accelerated the process.

sting_760 SG

[quote]Originally posted by Blueray:

I am living in China right now. .
[quote]Are you a shanghaiese or what? which part of china are you living in.

sgdiehard SG

Care to explain what policy you are talking about?

Since when did Mao ever start a program of modernizations for the coastal cities in China to take over HK? and how did the financial crisis accelerated the process?

sting_760 SG

It did, at least under Mao era, you don't have to underline all of which you're unaware. In the Jan 1975, Zhou Enlai speaking before the 4th National People's Congress, outlined a program of "Four Modernizations" for the four sectors of agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology. Therefore, it is not without reason that pictures of improvements in these four sectors increased significantly during 1975 to 1978. After the Mao passed away in 1976, and the Gang of Four under arrest, Deng had succeeded in having adopted his plans for the urgent modernization of the economy in December 1978 at Third Plenum. This strategy, the Four Modernizations (of agriculture, industry, national defense and science & technology) was based on a blueprint that Zhou Enlai had drawn up in the early 70s.

Blueray SG

HongKong has weathered the storm well despite having to face so many changes in such a short time. It is barely 8 years since HongKong was handed back to China. It will take a much longer time to really judge whether 1C2S is a success or failure. After all, it took more than 130 years for the British to develop HK from a backwater fishing village to the asian financial center we know of today.

sting_760 SG

And its already a miracle that they could had survived that for 8 years without the BRITISH. The whole idea of Hongkonger should govern hongkong is superfluous, until they have proved they could had been better, if not it is better for them to support the policy from Party Central Committee, it could had even better without Hongkoner to step in. More and more business are immigrating to Shenzhen from Hongkong, as a matter of fact about 6million transmigrants out of 3/4 total population in Shenzhen are inhere less than a year, its clear from the part Shenzhen are de facto playing an role of regional hub. HK as an important source of investment for the developing Chinese economy seem no longer practicably. I believe HK as an island never appeared on history once until the Brtish arrived and began expansion as a strategic port, problem that area was so remote from the past.

sting_760 SG

[quote]Originally posted by sting_760:
[quote]Originally posted by Blueray:
[b]

I am living in China right now. .
[quote]Are you a shanghaiese or what? which part of china are you living in.[/b][quote]You haven't yet answer my question, which part of China are you living in.

davidmars SG

Well what I can say is this:

The future of Taiwan depends on Taiwanese, they must have the realisation that they decide the country's future, whether to unify with China, remain status quo or create a new nation on Taiwan.

The fact that Taiwanese are mostly ethnically Chinese is not the issue. American Whites and British Whites are ethnically whites, correct me if I'm wrong, but they are living in different nations as well. If China and Taiwan should be unified just because both nations are predominantly Chinese, then why not count Singapore in as well? I think ethnic and nationhood are 2 separate issues.

Just because China is big does not give her the right to fire missiles or use non-peaceful means on Taiwan, under any circumstances.

Taiwan does not belong to China. When Taiwan was sececced from China to Japan during the Qing dynasty, it was given to Japan forever. From that point in time, Taiwan and China are already completely separated. When Japan surrendered in 1945, Taiwan was given to the Allied Forces, and General Chiang Kai Shek that time received Taiwan as the chief commander of the Allied Forces in Asia if I'm not wrong, not as the president or leader of China.

Taiwanese and Taiwanese politicians and govt. must be visionary when dealing with China, they must also be morally courageous. Democracy is the best weapon against missiles.

People all over the world should not merely look at the Taiwan-China issue from a historical, pragmatic, $$ and cents point of view. They should also see it morally and ethically, from a democracy's point of view. Let's face it, democracy is the only political system so far in human history to be widely, genuinely and consistently accepted by all of us.

Leaders in Taiwan and in many parts of the world have to be more idealistic. Call me crazy, but everything starts with an idea, with a dream. If you can't dream, then you can only follow orders. If you're merely a do-er, then you can only follow directions.

Statesmen and leaders of the world, especially in an increasingly wealthy and practical world of ours, must also be able preserve and to further promote the good principles of rightiousness, moral courage, honesty, peace and democracy.

My 2 cents' worth Cool

sgdiehard SG

Who decide if Taiwan belong to China?

Who decide if Taiwan was given to Japan forever?

Was Taiwan given to the Allied Forces?

Since when was Chiang Kai Shek the Chief commander of the Allied Forces in Asia?

It is indeed fortunate that your idealistic vision, with such historical knowledge remains your own dream. Nobody will pay a cent for it,.... may be the jap would, it is their dream too.

« Previous Page Next Page »