Democratic domino or dictator's stronghold?
Analysis
By Paul Reynolds
World Affairs correspondent, BBC News website
It is tempting for outside observers to assume that a democratic
revolution is about to sweep through Uzbekistan.
After all, some other tough nuts in the former Soviet Union have
been cracked, so why not another?
And there is an example right next door in Kyrgyzstan where, a
couple of months ago, street protests forced out a president who
had promised reform but who had not delivered.
Indeed, it would be rash to think that there will be no such
revolution, and that the iron grip of President Islam Karimov will
not be dislodged.
People once said that of East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania and
others.
Obstacles
But there are significant hurdles for any would-be Uzbek reformers
to overcome, which makes their task even harder than that faced by
their predecessors in Eastern Europe.
For a start, the political structures in Uzbekistan are primitive
compared to, say, Ukraine and Georgia.
There is therefore no obvious opposition leadership ready to take
over.
This difference was highlighted in an article by Justin Burke of
Eurasianet, a New York-based information group on Central
Asia.
"Georgia had the Rose Revolution, and Ukraine had the Orange
Revolution. Both featured well-managed anti-government protests, in
which highly-organised student groups functioned as shock troops,
acting under the direction of cohesive opposition political
leadership," he said.
"Those two revolutionary efforts also benefited by having clearly
defined and charismatic leaders - Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia
and Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine - espousing relatively clear
political programmes.
"All these factors helped ensured a relatively smooth transition of
power."
Blaming Islamists
Another problem for reformers is that President Karimov has been
able to pin the unrest on Islamic extremists, of which there are
some active in Uzbekistan.
This has allowed him to cow the rest of the population by making
them afraid of religious extremism.
It has also enabled him to attract support from both Russia and
China, who face their own Muslim fundamentalists.
He has also had support from the West, especially the United
States, which has an airbase near the Afghan border.
This support wavered only after the shooting of the unarmed
demonstrators last week in Andijan.
The West has known perfectly well what has been going on in
Uzbekistan in recent years.
Not only was former British ambassador Craig Murray constantly
complaining of Karimov's rule, but in December last year the
Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)
concluded that parliamentary elections had not been
satisfactory.
"Fundamental freedoms in Uzbekistan remain severely restricted, and
the relevant principles necessary for a meaningful democratic
election process, such as freedom of expression, association and
assembly, were not respected," it reported.
The Ferghana Valley and neighbouring regions of eastern Uzbekistan
have been seething with discontent since late last year
Stephen Schwartz
But the West has trodden carefully, given Uzbekistan's role in
supporting the war in Afghanistan and the country's resources of
natural gas.
If enough pressure can be put on Mr Karimov to allow reform and
opposition, then it is possible that his whole repressive structure
will crash down.
But, of course, it is far from certain that this will happen.
Popular unrest
Although Mr Karimov has accused international Islamic groups such
as the Islamic Movement of Turkestan and Hezb-e-Tahrir of fomenting
revolution, it is important to keep an eye on the popular basis of
the unrest.
This was picked up recently by Stephen Schwartz, a writer on
Islamic affairs, during a visit to Uzbekistan.
He wrote in the US magazine The Weekly Standard: "The Ferghana
Valley and neighbouring regions of eastern Uzbekistan have been
seething with discontent since late last year, when thousands
turned out to demonstrate against high taxes and restrictive state
policies on commerce."
He noted that the protests had been triggered by the trial of 23
local businessmen in Andijan, rather than by any form of Islamic
militancy.
"This turmoil is unrelated to radical Islam, and Islamist
extremists were unable to capitalise on it. Nor is it motivated by
desperate poverty - rather, it is an expression of rising
expectations," Stephen Schwartz said.
"The democratising revolution in Kyrgyzstan, which lies on the
border near Andijan, electrified the Ferghana Valley. The unsettled
Uzbeks now have, next door, a successful example of direct action
against unjust rule."
So there appears to be the basis for a popular protest movement.
However, its success or failure cannot be predicted right now.