War games where one side thinks that it has sufficient power to
cower the other into some form of compromise or submission is a
simplistic military strategy.
It does not lead to supremacy or diplomatic success. It may lead to
war ultimately. No body is the winner finally. China (mainland)
thinks that it can go to war at all cost to take back Taiwan.
Policy-wise it may be the right move for China. However, to flex
the muscle and start military operations to threaten Taiwan may be
a counter-productive strategy.
This is clearly seen in how USA reacts to the situation. USA was
said to be supportive of one-china policy. Because of open threats,
now it supports Taiwan on the quiet.
The former Soviet Union became a super-power sometime around the
1980s backed by a communist ideology supported by many countries.
Many countries were threatened by their unknown military might.
Soviet Union could have still controlled the world today had it
treaded its unknown military might - its triumph card - carefully
through pursuit of quiet behind the scene diplomacy. Howeer, it was
not willing to wait and work it out this way. It soon asserted
itself by flexing its muscle too readily. It went into not just
threats but open field conflicts in Afgstan and neighbouring
countries. Americans then knowing its true power then came in to to
test Soviet Union's vulnerabilities.
For a Small (Red Dot) country, the best foreign policy (yet to be
established) is to establish real fire power (our strength) and
never shows it but instead conduct quiet diplomacy based on
harmonious relations around our neighbourhood with a bit of
technical assistance to all to help them do better. We could
establish a common market sooner. This mode of quiet diplomacy
definitely will go a longer way to winning friends. Don't let enemy
know we have the main policy of being close to super-power or
China. This latter need is psychological but will happen naturally
through involvement in regionalization and progress. Build
neighbourly relations through exchange programs of all kinds to
make our intention to be friendly truly tested.
A quiet diplomacy founded on real military prowess acquired in an
unassuming and low-profile way is the real power. 