http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=276884&contrassID=2&subContrassID=5&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y&itemNo=276884
Arab Citizens "On Stand-by" - Most Arabs support
Saddam, oppose U.S.
`The citizens are currently on standby'
By Zvi Bar'el
"Five days into the war finds us perplexed. Every day we hear
reports of American victories and every day we see more fiascoes.
Here a fallen helicopter, there American fatalities and captured
soldiers. One minute we see the bombing of Baghdad and the
billowing black smoke and the next minute we hear of gunfire
against the American forces, Saddam's speech and an appearance by
Iraqi Vice President Taha Yasin Ramadan. What are we supposed to
say now?"
The Egyptian journalist who spoke these words was among the
supporters of the war against Iraq. Before it began, he wrote a few
important articles in one of the widely distributed newspapers in
Egypt, calling on Egyptians "to learn the lessons of the impending
war even before it starts. We must examine ourselves," he wrote, "
and understand that a war like this could not have happened if the
Middle East had developed like all the other nations, if democracy
was part of our system of government and if the leaders were
attentive to the will of the people."
Now, in a telephone conversation, that journalist laments that the
liberals in Egypt and throughout the Arab world have no one upon
whom to rely except the Americans. Unlike many of his colleagues,
he viewed the declaration of war not as the end of the world but
rather the beginning of a new world. But "when the war is starting
in what appears to be an entanglement, and when a respected
newspaper like Al Quds al Arabi, which is published in London,
features headlines such as `Vietnam, Iraqi style,' even we start to
have our doubts," he said. "If things get complicated, we can
forget a new order and any hope for change. Even worse, America
will no longer be able to be a symbol of progress and
development."
The confusion in the Egyptian newspapers between supporting the
United States or opposing the war, between the official Egyptian
position that demands the war be halted and the continued
coordination between Egypt and the U.S., while in the background
there are tumultuous demonstrations in the streets of Cairo -
though these have settled down for the moment - attests to what
will happen in most Arab states apart from Kuwait. Kuwait is the
only country so far whose journalists and government have
wholeheartedly and unhesitatingly come out in support of the war
and called for a total victory over the Iraqi regime.
In Egypt, which this week hosted the conference of foreign
ministers of the Arab League states (a conference that was nothing
but a lot of words without purpose), the Iraqi problem is not how
to stop the war but rather how to deal with anticipated further
demonstrations.
Two Egyptian parliament members were arrested last weekend during
the latest demonstrations, causing a stormy response in the
parliament, which demanded their immediate release. Over 800 other
Egyptian citizens were arrested and the Egyptian general security
services have been on high alert for weeks.
According to Egyptian sources, the security services have the
situation under control and they are using plainclothes policemen
on university campuses and secret arrests of every sort of
political activist.
"The problem," says a man from the Al-Ahram Research Institute, "is
that the war is not in Egypt's control and with satellite dishes
and the Internet, it cannot be a secret war, unseen and reported
only via chunks of information released by the government.
"If you check the Egyptian chat sites, you will discover how much
support there is for the Iraqi people and how much Egyptians oppose
American policy.
"Even worse, the pictures of the victims and the destruction in
Iraq that are being transmitted via the Internet are causing
unrest, and as you know, it is enough for one crazy person to
incite the masses and make things go out of control. The most
threatening thing is the possibility that the security services
will be forced to fire wholesale into the crowds of
demonstrators."
Only the perennial Egyptian information minister, Safwat al-Sharif,
is not worried and referred to last week's demonstrations as "the
free expression of the citizens," who want to express their
opinion. "Egypt is a country in which freedom of expression is
steadfastly maintained," explained Al-Sharif. "We are an
institutionalized country that enjoys democracy."
In the meantime, despite the huge demonstrations in Yemen and
Egypt, the mood on the streets of the Arab cities is a far cry from
the demonstrations held in Europe and in Southeast Asia. "The
citizens are currently on standby," explains a Jordanian analyst.
"They still don't know whether to demonstrate against Saddam, in
favor of the Iraqi people or against America. The progress of the
war in terrorist coming days will dictate the reactions on the
streets. Jordanians, for example, are more afraid of the disorder
that those demonstrations could sow than they are of the war.
People are worried mainly about economic decline, the instability
of prices and the condition of the country's oil reserves." [In
anticipation of a halt in oil imports from Iraq, Jordan has already
purchased two oil tankers from Norway - Z.B.]."
Jordan has taken a series of harsh steps to prevent the
exploitation of the war for price hikes, but many residents report
that these steps are not being implemented everywhere.
The pressure on the Jordanian government is evident in government
announcements, which sometimes contradict reports from other
sources. Thus, for example, there was a report that American
special forces had left Jordan for operations in western Iraq, but
the Jordanian government totally denied the report.
There was a report of American warplanes operating from within
Jordanian airspace - again denied by official sources. Jordan
announced it is willing to absorb up to 50,000 Iraqi and other
refugees, but in reality there are severe restrictions on the entry
of refugees and only about 300 non-Iraqi refugees have so far
reached Jordan, and they are quickly sent to their native
countries.
Jordan has also stated that it will not close the Iraqi embassy in
Jordan and will not freeze Iraqi government bank accounts in the
country; in reality, five Iraqi diplomats have been expelled from
Jordan.
Lebanon and Syria seem to be in a different world. The Lebanese
prime minister last week visited a number of European countries in
order to "make his opinion of the war clear," according to the
Lebanese newspapers. In reality he is worried that the war against
Iraq will hamper the donations supposed to be sent to Lebanon, and
he went to Europe to make sure the donors have not been scared off.
The interesting aspect in Lebanon is actually Hezbollah's position
regarding the war. Hezbollah now has three points of reference:
Iran, the Iraqi Shi'ites and Syria
Iran continues its policy of "active neutrality," which means a
great interest in Saddam's downfall, aiding the opposition groups,
and harmless protestation of American infringement of Iranian
airspace and the landing of three missiles, two of them apparently
American, on Iranian soil. Iran's position seems to be closer to
that of those who support the war than is apparent from official
reactions. Iranian reports indicate, for example, that diplomatic
messages have been transmitted between the U.S. and Iran via
Francis Brooke, the American public relations assistant to Ahmed
Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, the umbrella
organization of the Iraqi opposition.
Brooke was warmly welcomed in Iran before the war began, mainly
thanks to his connections with Condoleezza Rice and with other
senior members of the American administration. Brooke theoretically
visited Iran as a participant in the conference of the heads of
Iraqi opposition in Iran, but he was the only American to visit
Iran recently who was not fingerprinted, as has become customary in
Iran following similar U.S. treatment of Iranian citizens visiting
America. Brookes met with the Iranian foreign minister and with
other important people and clarified that the U.S. has no
intentions of targeting Iranian installations.
The fact is that since the fighting began not one word has been
heard from Washington regarding Iran apart from a half-hearted
apology for the missiles, and Iran, for its part, has not issued a
forceful denunciation.
Hezbollah views this course of events as a clear hint at Iran's
position. Syria, on the other hand, even though it has become the
spearhead of the Arab opposition to the war and is demanding it be
halted, continues to broadcast double messages. Public Syrian
analysis in the newspapers and on the television talks of "the
anticipated victory of the Iraqi nation," and Iraqi foreign
minister Naji Sabri was warmly welcomed by his Syrian counterpart,
Farouk al-Shara. Meanwhile, clear messages have been sent to
Hezbollah not to heat up the southern Lebanese front and larger
forces of the Lebanese army are patrolling the border with
Israel.
With this, there are reports from Lebanese sources that elements in
the Syrian government have held discussions about "the day after,"
focusing on a scenario in which Syria is liable to be subject to
American pressure to promote the peace process. These discussions
included the anticipation of a long American sojourn in Iraqi
territory, which would necessitate Syrian cooperation with any
government that is formed in Iraq under American auspices.
Then there is one more thing for Hezbollah to consider. This
Shi'ite organization cannot object to the ousting of Saddam, who
murdered important Shi'ite clerics in Iraq.
A "closeness" has been developing in recent days between Hezbollah
and the Christian leadership in Lebanon and the secretary-general
of the organization even offered not to call the war against Iraq
"a crusade, if that expression offends Christians."
Apparently, it will be quite a while before there will be any
essential change in the positions of the Arab states indicating
that the war against Iraq is achieving additional regional goals.
For the time being each one of them is taking cover and making sure
that the war against Iraq will remain just that, a war against one
state.
