Originally posted by foxtrout8:
Basically....i will say China will lauch a head on attack on to
taiwan by
1)....lauching massive amount of surface to suface missile in to
taiwan ..destroying the beach fortress, airfields, radar station,
missile defence , Naval Base and the President Place .
IF they have that much ammo to spare... S-S missiles are not
exactly as plentiful as 7.62 shorts...
the whole point of having a fortified objective, be it a hill or a
beach, is to hold that area and enhance the survivability of troops
on it. it they can be simply taken out through saturation of
firepower, then u have to take the "fortified" out of the
objective...
and China's S-S missiles are not exactly tomahawks u know... one
shot one kill? get real. the kidd class destroyers can already
engage them. the ones who gets through may not be enough to cause
the substantial damage u suggest.
2) massive air moves to gain air superioty in the Taiwan's
strait with it's Su 30. The taiwan F-16 and Mirange isnt matchable
to the SU. Air bombardment on to the beaches will be done.
again, don't underestimate taiwan's AA capabilities. the
defender always has certain advantage. i wouldn't write off their
air force so easily.
3) Strike they will call. Massive Amphibious will be
lauch.....mind u ...they can produce it ..more than a division .
With StS missile in to the beaches ..taiwan will be outnumbered 4
to 1.( their amphibious assault quite hot leh.....look at they
excersise abt 10,000 at a time......)
yes, they have the men, but they don't have the ships to bring
them all there at once. china has always been weak in this. muster
fishing boats? don't bother... they'll be shot out of the water if
they fail to gain control of the air and the sea and it is still
questionable if they can do that with 7th fleet between them.
and what about logistics? we don't know the state of their
logistics effectiveness. they may suk for all we know. they'll fry
if troops manage to land but supplies and reinforcements don't
reach them fast enough. u're not moving toy soldiers on a board
here.
again, i disagree with your estimates of casualties from S-S
missiles. how are they supposed to secure a beach head if they
can't overwhelm an the defending garrisons on the beaches?
4)Commando will clear the way by air drop into middle taiwan.
again, assumption. if they're dropped and the beach head fails
to materialised, they'll be slaughtered.
5)Kilos and their 'Anti-Aegis' destroyer will block all trade
route to taiwan from the Phillipines and japan....Kilo will block
US support ship to.
do we have reasons to believe that a few kilo diesel subs can
block 7th fleet? in fact, i see a lot of dead chinese submariners
if they should decide to escalate by firing at US ships.
6) massive airdrop along the way into taiwan....surrender form
will be send.
u drop propaganda pamphlets only if u're winning. they may not
win and it will further piss of the taiwanese. psychological
warfare is not as simple as dropping leaflets asking your enemies
to surrender. timing is everything.
i can confirm something lor....China will not so easy use Nuke
one.....i dun think Nuke will be use lor....China want taiwan
back.....no a taiwanese waste land..
then they can't win and if they can't win, they won't initiate a
disaster fully knowing that it will be exactly that.
then the war may not be stage in this Ten years time...Because
for the olympics......in 2008...unless no choice ...if US intevent
to much....
don't be shallow. Beijing is more than willing to tolerate
American presence here. lots of noise and table banging but they
know they can't do shit about anything until they're stronger and
to be strong, u need to engage, not renegade. and how exactly would
u define "too much" ? Washington isn't stupid. they didn't give
Taipei a blank cheque u know... so all parties are restrained in
many ways.
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