RSAF has said that it will maintain 3 types of frontline
fighters (preferrably all multiroles) so that if any one type are
grounded for whatever reason, the risks are mitigated by having the
other 2 types. So in the next decade or so, we should see F-5, F16
and the next gen to replace all the skyhawks. That doesn't mean
that skyhawks won't be used as trainers or even some sort of UCAV.
The F-16s were initially bought to replace the Hunters, but as the
Vipers were really good at both air-to-air and strike roles, plus
the sudden afforability of the latest Block 50s, it became logical
that the Vipers are going to become the most numerous aircraft like
the Skyhawks were in the 70s to 90s. Given that the present 3 types
of frontline planes are F5, Vipers and Skyhawks; as the Viper
number increases, the Skyhawk decreases. Essentially, the new next
gen fighters that RSAF will be purchasing will almost be a 1 to 1
replacement of Skyhawks (at present active sqn figures). eg. 40
planes.
When JSF becomes common and affortable, then we should see the F-35
replacing the F5. Depending on the timeframe, the F16 then becomes
the oldest of the 3 types of plane and they will slowly be "cycled
out" just like the Skyhawks are today. Basically, RSAF purchasing
strategy clearly outlined in the book "Defending the Lion
City".
As to the question about what should replace S211, I don't think
S211 will be replaced anytime soon since they are still relatively
new and suitable for basic jet training. Supposedly RSAF becomes
very well funded and decided on a new trainer, I would think that
the front-running should either be Hawk 100 or Korean
T50.
