I think the best way to predict is to look at the completion
dates of BTO flats.
BSEP new bus services
prediction based on BTO estimated completion dates
(completion date - BTO name)
Choa Chu Kang already has 983, Punggol already has 382, and
Bukit Batok already has so many bus services. I guess Q2 BSEP
launch of new bus services will be in Sengkang,
Tampines and Woodlands.
Punggol's already has 382; Bukit Merah and Clementi
already have an established public bus network; I guess Q3 BSEP
launch of new bus services will be in Choa Chu
Kang and Yishun.
With a "bumper crop" of BTO completion in
Kallang and Sengkang, I guess new
BSEP bus services will be launched there in Q4. Hougang's one is in
the middle of an established public bus network. If Choa Chu Kang
and Yishun each have a new bus service in Q3, there's no need for
another one in Q4.
All are "bumper crop"s, with at least around five
hundred units. Jurong West's one may already be served by 49. I
guess there will be new BSEP bus services at Ang Mo
Kio, Bukit Batok, Choa Chu
Kang, Hougang, Punggol,
Sengkang and Yishun in Q1 next
year.
All are "bumper crop"s, except Yishun's. Kallang's may
not need BSEP new bus service, if there's one launched this year. I
guess the launch of new BSEP bus services in Q2 next year will be
in Ang Mo Kio, Jurong West,
Queenstown, Sembawang,
Sengkang and Woodlands.
All are "bumper crops". I guess Q3 next year will see
new BSEP bus services in Jurong West,
Sembawang, Toa Payoh and
Yishun.
All are "bumper crop"s, so it's quite likely that
Bedok, Bukit Batok, Bukit
Merah, Hougang, Punggol,
Tampines and Yishun will get the
last batch of new BSEP bus services in Q4 next year.
In total, we need thirty-one new BSEP bus services from Q2 this
year to Q4 next year.
Yet, there are only twenty vacancies left.
I guess the last batch of BSEP new bus services will be launched
in Q2 next year.
Thereafter, it is either another round of expansion of BSEP, or
a new bus service improvement programme will be initiated.
Otherwise, I guess it's going to be long routes covering several
newly-completed BTO estates in a town.
With around sixteen towns (Ang Mo Kio, Bedok, Bukit Batok, Bukit
Merah, Choa Chu Kang, Hougang, Jurong West, Kallang, Punggol,
Queenstown, Sembawang, Sengkang, Tampines, Toa Payoh, Woodlands,
Yishun) and twenty vacancies, it may be possible to cover every
newly-completed BTO estates by the end of 2017 with twenty bus
routes or less.
If have remainder, we can fill that with new City Direct bus
services.
If so, the roll out of the final twenty BSEP new bus services
could be like this:
Where the remaining four are City Direct bus services.
Good summary. Lets go quarter by quarter and see what bus needs
these new BTOs may have.