SPACE TRAVEL
Space Watch: History's Moment Of Truth
Washington DC (UPI) Jun 02, 2005
The next five years will determine, for good or ill, the future of
U.S. manned space exploration for decades to come. More
significant, a confluence of forces will accelerate that
process.
Several of these forces rely on the decisions of Michael Griffin,
NASA's administrator. Just as crucial will be the actions of
Congress and the public, and the success or failure of several
private entrepreneurs, including a former programmer who is trying
to rebuild the American rocket industry single-handed.
Consider first the decisions of Griffin. He faces a serious problem
trying to complete and supply the International Space Station.
Because his predecessor, Sean O'Keefe, chose to rely solely on the
space shuttle to ferry supplies, crew and new construction modules
to the station, Griffin remains entirely dependent on the Russians,
because the trio of remaining shuttles was grounded after the
Columbia accident in 2003.
Worse, unless Griffin can get a shuttle replacement designed and
built by 2010, he will have no way to ferry supplies or crew to ISS
after that, if the shuttle is retired that year as planned.
Faced with this dilemma, Griffin has made it clear he wants to
accelerate construction of the crew exploration vehicle, getting it
built and operating by 2010. To do so, he is trying to streamline
NASA's operations.
No longer will NASA do an unmanned test fly-off in 2008 by two
contractors at a cost of $1 billion before deciding on a final
design. Instead, Griffin hopes to pick the CEV's prime contractor
by next year so the money can be used to speed construction.
"I don't have a lot the money to be funding parallel development,"
Griffin noted at the Space at the Crossroads conference in
Washington on May 18. "To be honest, I don't have any."
At the same conference, Griffin also expressed interest in allowing
other commercial companies to bid on providing basic freight
service to the station.
"It is in our interest to sponsor commercial development in that
area," he said.
Even before Griffin arrived at NASA, the agency had carved out a
separate $160 million slot in its fiscal year 2006 budget for "the
acquisition of cargo and crew services to support the ISS."
As that budget proposal noted, "It is necessary for NASA to
establish (an alternative) transportation capability for crew and
cargo for the space station program."
In response to this need, Transformational Space, a consortium of
new alternative space companies - including Burt Rutan's Scaled
Composites, the builder of SpaceShipOne - already has proposed
building a basic crew and cargo vehicle to supply ISS for $400
million and have it flying by 2008.
Also known as t/Space, the company even constructed a full-scale
prototype and showed it off to the public and media during the
International Space Development Conference in Arlington, Va., from
May 19 to 22.
The vehicle, a basic capsule designed to land in water, would have
a human pilot and be capable of carrying either cargo or crews to
the ISS. By multiplying the $160 million per year that NASA has
budgeted for basic cargo services through 2008, there is more than
enough cash available to pay t/Space's construction costs.
"We look forward to the chance to make our case to Michael
Griffin," David Gump, the company's president, told UPI's Space
Watch at the conference. "We think we will save them money just ...
by having real competition in the program."
Along with t/Space, at least one other company is competing to
provide basic freight service for NASA: Kistler Aerospace, of
Kirkland, Wash.
Kistler was born during the launch frenzy of the late 1990s, when
the anticipated demands of satellite telephone companies such as
Iridium and Globalstar were expected to produce as many as 200
satellite launches per year.
At the time, Kistler raised $600 million dollars in capital and
completed more than 75 percent of the construction of its reusable
rocket, the K-1.
When those launch hopes fizzled in the wake of both Iridium and
Globalstar's failures, Kistler went bankrupt.
Last March 29, however, the courts approved Kistler's
reorganization plan, allowing the company to emerge from
bankruptcy. Kistler now is eagerly hoping to win the contract for
that $160 million, saying it can have the K-1 ready to provide
cargo services to the ISS in two years.
Then there is the CEV itself. If Griffin decides to award a cargo
contract to one of the new companies, he will, as Gump suggested,
increase the competitive pressure on traditional prime contractors
such as Boeing or Northrop Grumman as they vie to build the
CEV.
Putting even more pressure on the aerospace establishment is the
effort of Elon Musk and his company, Space Exploration Technologies
Corp., of El Segundo, Calif. Last month, SpaceX successfully
completed a full launch dress rehearsal of its Falcon 1 rocket.
With the rocket bolted to its launchpad, its engines fired for five
seconds with no problems.
Musk, who made his fortune by creating PayPal and then selling it
to Ebay for $1.5 billion, has won three contracts already for the
Falcon I, with its first launch scheduled for sometime in
August.
Should that launch succeed, SpaceX's fees - $5.9 million plus range
costs for the Falcon I and $15.9 million for its larger Falcon V -
should allow the company to undercut every other competitor
worldwide.
"With the lowest cost per flight in the world for a production
rocket and superlative design reliability, (the Falcon family of
rockets) has the potential to be the world leader in launches per
year," Musk said in a statement announcing the successful
test.
Adding even more intensity to this competitive race to build new
crew and cargo vessels is the America's Space Prize, a $50 million
purse offered by Bigelow Aerospace of Las Vegas, Nev., for the
first American company able to put five people into a 250-mile
orbit, then repeat the effort within 60 days. The flights must be
completed before Jan. 10, 2010.
Bigelow is building a series of low-cost orbital modules for
private use, either as space hotels or for commercial research, and
needs a cheaper method for hauling its modules and passengers into
space. The company hopes the prize will encourage that
effort.
Combined, these forces are conspiring to transform the U.S. human
space industry before 2010. In fact, for the first time since the
early 1960s, all indications point in only one direction -
up.
Nonetheless, though these trends seem strong, there is no guarantee
they will prove true. Griffin could decide he cannot risk hiring
new and untried companies. Congress could decide there is not
enough money to fund the program. Musk's rocket could explode at
launch.
The U.S. public also could decide it would rather read about fad
diets and the best Internet software than the quest to conquer the
stars.
Should this new and increasingly private effort by the United
States to send humans into space fail, it is likely the country
will be out of the space exploration business for many decades to
come. Future explorers will speak Russian, Chinese, French and
maybe even Indian, rather than English.
Such failure is unlikely, however. Not only is this convergence of
forces pushing the United States toward success, but past history
also suggests the country is culturally primed for a triumph.
Compare today's situation with that of England in the late 16th
century. In 1585, the British attempted to establish their first
colony in North America, at Roanoke in what is now Virginia. The
attempt failed.
For the next few decades, through the '80s and '90s, the British
interest in the New World waned. It was the Elizabethan age. The
English had other concerns beside exploration and colonization,
preferring to fight off the Spanish Armada - their version of our
Cold War - while enjoying a remarkable burst of literary creativity
from geniuses such as William Shakespeare, Ben Jonson, John Donne,
Christopher Marlowe and others.
Then, at the dawn of a new century, the urge to explore rose up
again, and in '07 the English set out to establish a colony in
North America. This time, the colony, called Jamestown, succeeded
and soon was followed by others. The permanent British colonization
and settlement of North America had begun.
Now, we are seeing the same historical pattern. From 1969 to 1972,
the United States succeeded in landing men on the moon. Then we
pulled back and lost our nerve, and for the next few decades we
were content to fight the Cold War while sending the shuttle in
endless circles around Earth.
It is now the dawn of a new century, even a new millennium. Once
again there is a rebirth of interest in exploration and innovation.
Once again we are at a moment of truth.
I suspect that, like the British 400 years ago, this time the U.S.
effort to conquer the stars will stick.
One final thought. In 1599, at the dawn of the English effort to
colonize North America, the poet Samuel Daniel wrote the following
words:
And who in time knows whither we may vent
The treasure of our tongue, to what strange shores
This gain of our best glory shall be sent,
To enrich unknowing nations with our stores?
What worlds in the yet unformed Occident
May come refined with the accents that are ours?
Or who can tell for what great work in hand
The greatness of our style is now ordained?
What powers it shall bring in, what spirits command,
What thoughts let out, what humors keep restrained,
What mischief it may powerfully withstand,
And what fair ends may thereby be attained.
In 1599 Daniel correctly foresaw how the effort of England to build
societies in the New World would shape the heritage of many future
generations. His prediction holds true today. The work we do now
will determine the language and heritage of all future human
generations, both here on Earth as well as out there amid the
stars.
Let us hope we have the courage to match our ancestors.