The land was once fertile, food and fresh water were plentiful
and there were reliable sources of energy. But people took these
things for granted and thought they would last for ever, and they
were wrong. Now food and water are scarce, and there is widespread
drought and famine. Supplies of oil and other natural resources are
dwindling fast, and countries have been forced to develop nuclear
weapons in order to protect what little they have. Conflict has
become a way of life.
This may sound like the scenario from a Hollywood blockbuster, but
according to a recent report investigating the impact of climate
change, it could really happen, and in the not too distant future.
Environmentalists have long been warning us about the dangers of
global warming, and now it appears that even the Pentagon is
getting worried. Their report states that rapid climate change
would create "global chaos", and that a global environmental
catastrophe is "plausible". As soon as 2020, it is claimed, we
could see "climate wars" caused by catastrophic shortages of water
and energy supplies.
Are such dire warnings really as far-fetched as they seem? Perhaps
not, as there is evidence already that the pace of climate change
is accelerating.
In Alaska, wintertime temperatures have risen by an average of 6°C.
"This is an absolutely enormous signal," says Gunter Weller from
the University of Alaska, "bigger than anything the computer models
have predicted." In the past, winter temperatures would hover
around -40°C for months, while recently they have reached only
-30°C, and only stayed that low for a few days.
As a result of this temperature rise the layer just under the
surface of the ground, which has been frozen for thousands of years
(the permafrost), is now beginning to thaw, causing roads to crack
open and buildings to collapse in Alaskan towns. Elsewhere in the
region, whole sections of coastline are falling into the sea as ice
begins to melt. Latest predictions are that the ice in the Arctic
Circle will disappear forever within the next hundred years,
leaving open water at the top of the earth.
Meanwhile, in the southern hemisphere, one of the seven natural
wonders of the world is at risk. The Great Barrier Reef is one of
Australias top tourist attractions, but it may not be for much
longer. The worlds seas are getting warmer, and this is slowly
killing the beautiful coral that people come to see on the Reef. In
fact, experts are now predicting that 95% of the coral will be dead
by the year 2050. A recent report on the future of the coral said,
"Reefs will not disappear, but they will be devoid of coral. There
is little to no evidence that corals can adapt fast enough." Marine
scientists predict a rise in temperatures of up to 6°C, while
increases of just 1°C are enough to bleach or even kill
coral.
Change is even taking place in Britain, where February 2004 was one
of the mildest ever. In Scotland, the winter sports industry is
suffering. Two out of five of the Scottish ski resorts are now up
for sale, their owners unable to sustain the heavy financial losses
caused by the lack of snow in recent years. Is winter becoming a
thing of the past? Dr David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at
the University of East Anglia, says that global warming may not all
be bad news for Scotland. "As Scotland has better summers and the
Mediterranean gets too hot, the Scottish tourism industry should
benefit in the summer months."
