2005 FEB 6 - (NewsRx.com & NewsRx.net) -- Scientists present
modeling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks in a recent
issue of the Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B -
Biological Sciences.
According to a study from Canada, "Severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS), a new, highly contagious, viral disease, emerged
in China late in 2002 and quickly spread to 32 countries and
regions causing in excess of 774 deaths and 8098 infections
worldwide. In the absence of a rapid diagnostic test, therapy, or
vaccine, isolation of individuals diagnosed with SARS and
quarantine of individuals feared exposed to SARS virus were used to
control the spread of infection."
"We examine mathematically the impact of isolation and quarantine
on the control of SARS during the outbreaks in Toronto, Hong Kong,
Singapore, and Beijing using a deterministic model that closely
mimics the data for cumulative infected cases and SARS-related
deaths in the first three regions but not in Beijing until
mid-April, when China started to report data more accurately,"
stated Abba B. Gumel at the University of Manitoba and
collaborators in Canada. "The results reveal that achieving a
reduction in the contact rate between susceptible and diseased
individuals by isolating the latter is a critically important
strategy that can control SARS outbreaks with or without
quarantine."
"An optimal isolation program entails timely implementation under
stringent hygienic precautions defined by a critical threshold
value," commented the researchers. "Values below this threshold
lead to control, but those above are associated with the incidence
of new community outbreaks or nosocomial infections, a known cause
for the spread of SARS in each region. Allocation of resources to
implement optimal isolation is more effective than to implement
sub-optimal isolation and quarantine together. A community-wide
eradication of SARS is feasible if optimal isolation is combined
with a highly effective screening program at the points of
entry."
Gumel and associates published the results of their research in the
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B - Biological
Sciences (Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks. Proc
R Soc Lond B