April 2,
2015 PewResearchCenter
The religious
profile of the world is rapidly changing, driven primarily by
differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations
among the world’s major religions, as well as by people switching
faiths. Over the next four decades, Christians will remain the
largest religious group, but Islam will grow faster than any other
major religion. If current trends continue, by 2050 …
The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number
of Christians around the world.
Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not
affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such
as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of
the world’s total population.
The global Buddhist population will be about the
same size it was in 2010, while the Hindu and Jewish populations
will be larger than they are today.
In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall
population.
India will retain a Hindu majority but also will
have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world,
surpassing Indonesia.
In the United States, Christians will decline from
more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in
2050, and Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian
religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who
identify as Jewish on the basis of religion.
Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will
live in sub-Saharan Africa.
With the exception of
Buddhists, all of the world’s major religious groups are poised for
at least some growth in absolute numbers in the coming decades. The
global Buddhist population is expected to be fairly stable because
of low fertility rates and aging populations in countries such as
China, Thailand and Japan.
Due largely to high
fertility, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to
experience the fastest overall growth, rising from 12% of the
world’s population in 2010 to about 20% in 2050. The Middle
East-North Africa region also is expected to grow faster
than the world as a whole, edging up from 5% of the global
population in 2010 to 6% in 2050. Ongoing growth in both regions
will fuel global increases in the Muslim population. In addition,
sub-Saharan Africa’s Christian population is expected to double,
from 517 million in 2010 to 1.1 billion in 2050. The share of the
world’s Christians living in sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 24%
in 2010 to 38% in 2050.
<Meanwhile, the
Asia-Pacific region is expected to have a
declining share of the world’s population (53% in 2050, compared
with 59% in 2010). This will be reflected in the slower growth of
religions heavily concentrated in the region, including Buddhism
and Chinese folk religions, as well as slower growth of Asia’s
large unaffiliated population. One exception is Hindus, who are
overwhelmingly concentrated in India, where the population is
younger and fertility rates are higher than in China or Japan. As
previously mentioned, Hindus are projected to roughly keep pace
with global population growth. India’s large Muslim population also
is poised for rapid growth. Although India will continue to have a
Hindu majority, by 2050 it is projected to have the world’s largest
Muslim population, surpassing Indonesia.
< Muslims in 2050
are expected to make up more than 50% of the population in 51
countries, two more than in 2010, as both the Republic of Macedonia
and Nigeria are projected to gain Muslim majorities. But Nigeria
also will continue to have a very large Christian population.
Indeed, Nigeria is projected to have the third-largest Christian
population in the world by 2050, after the United States and
Brazil.
<Over the coming
decades, Christians are expected to experience the largest net
losses from switching. Globally, about 40 million people are
projected to switch into Christianity, while 106 million are
projected to leave, with most joining the ranks of the religiously
unaffiliated.
<All told, the
unaffiliated are expected to add 97 million people and lose 36
million via switching, for a net gain of 61 million by 2050. Modest
net gains through switching also are expected for Muslims (3
million), adherents of folk religions (3 million) and members of
other religions (2 million). Jews are expected to experience a net
loss of about 300,000 people due to switching, while Buddhists are
expected to lose nearly 3 million.