I strongly agree with the authors that many ordinary
phenomena are regarded as extraordinary because most of us lack an
intuitive understanding of probability and statistics. For
instance, if we were to guess the probability that an individual,
on any particular night, dreams of an aeroplane crash, we might
come up with a number between one in a few thousand and one in a
million. On any given night, therefore, perhaps between 60 and 6000
people in the UK dream of such an event. So far, entirely
unsurprising. But if a catastrophic air accident does occur in the
day following the one night in my life that I dream of a plane
crash, this statistically insignificant event may give me an
unshakeable, lifelong conviction that I have experienced a
precognitive dream. This theme is explored effectively and at some
length in the chapter entitled "Amazing coincidences".
