For an aggressor, its very easy to estimate our total
NSF+NSmen.
Birth rate 8.1/1000
Population 5.5 million
ICT: 10 years, 40 days/year max
Total = 445,500 NSFs + ORNS
In the event of war, there is one more addition to this total:
MR personnel below 40 (NCOs) or 55 (officers)
16.1% of our population is between 45-54, we assume 0.5 x
population = 442,750
16% is between 35-44, we assume 0.5 x population = 440,000
So the total number of soldiers in the event of war should not
exceed 1.328 million.
We need to deduct an important figure from this – Singapore’s
mortality rate for males was 72.51 per 1000 = 7.251%
So the approximate number of soldiers an aggressor will see is
0.92749×1.328 million = 1.231 million, assuming all the chao keng,
bai ka, bai qiu, blind, deaf, mute and prison convicts can also
contribute.
The big problem with Singapore is food. If our delivery drivers
stop sending food from Malaysia, we will start starving within a
week.
Our water supply is another issue. Hyflux reverse osmosis
desalination plant in Tuas South and Changi needs to have a naval
defense. I have never seen an exercise in this regard. Also the
aggressor can do missile saturation attack against Huflux,
rendering it inoperable. We will be cut off from food and fresh
water.
Another issue is a specific component for our massive mobile
military hardware. There is currently no inhouse expertise in
SAF to replace this item, which I wont say
what it is. If the aggressor destroys the warehouse containing the
spares, and our mobile military will soon become immobile. There is
also no specific defense for this warehouse that I can see, unlike
our fuel refineries.
Thats why I say in a war lasting a few months, the damage to
Singapore can be irreparable. Soldiers going hungry, thirsty and an
increasing number of inoperable military vehicles can wrack havoc
on morale.
To win quickly, we must be quick and decisive, but the
SAF is as we know – wait to rush, and rush to
wait.