July 1, 2005
Dengue cases on the rise again, says NEA
4,900 cases till June 19; expected to cross last year's 9,459
By Radha Basu
THE number of people who contract dengue is on the rise again, the
National Environment Agency warned yesterday.
This year, infectious disease expert Leo Yee Sin told The Straits
Times, victims may surpass last year's record high, putting intense
pressure on an already overloaded health-care system.
Now, about 80 per cent of dengue cases here need to be
warded.
'Even without a surge in dengue cases, our hospital occupancy rates
are already quite high,' she said.
The incidence of dengue swells by about 25 per cent every year
between June and August, when temperatures are high, as the dengue
virus thrives in hot weather.
There are already indications that the situation may be worse than
before, added the clinical director of the Communicable Disease
Centre.
There were close to 4,900 cases till June 19 this year. In the same
period last year, there were about 2,200. On top of that, the
annual surge began a month earlier than last year.
There were 611 cases in May, compared to 490 in the same month last
year.
June figures are also likely to be higher than last year, when
there were 617 cases. In the first three weeks of last month, there
were 610 cases.
At this rate, said Associate Professor Leo, the probability of
surpassing last year's record of 9,459 is quite high, adding: 'I
hope, of course, that I'm wrong.'
The NEA is more optimistic. The head of operations at its
Environmental Health Department, Mr Dalson Chung, said this year's
numbers are a hangover from last year's upsurge.
Usually, there are very few cases in January and February, he said.
'But this year, the numbers were far higher, because last year's
upsurge did not stop in August but continued into the first two
months of this year,' he explained. There were more than 1,000
cases reported here during each of those two months.
'There are no signs that the traditional spike we're seeing now
during the warmer months will continue the rest of the year, like
it did last year,' he said.
Experts are still not sure what caused last year's outbreak. One
possible reason, they suggested, is that there was a change in the
strain - or type - of dengue virus that infected most people last
year.
In 2003, the dominant strain was Dengue 2. When the upsurge began
in May last year, it was Dengue 1. There has been no change in the
dominant strain since.
As of last week, the worst-hit areas in Singapore were Upper Boon
Keng Road, Lorong Kembangan and the neighbouring Taman Selamat.
These places had a total of 38 cases.
