The annual Chinese New
Year’s (CNY) $12 million TOTO draw is back. In a state with the
population being mainly Chinese, we should expect Singapore Pools
(SGP) to be visited with queues longer the Hello Kitty craze in
Singapore many years ago.
We are back to
provide you with more insights on the TOTO lottery system. These
insights might affect your strategy trying to win the top prize.
May the odds be ever in your favour.
Money waits for no
one, let’s start off with the first insight!
Read
Also: How
Do the Changes In TOTO Affect Your Winnings
The $228
Pack Deal consists of the thirty QuickPick System 7
tickets plus 6 Singapore Sweep tickets. Three system 7 tickets are
printed from ten SGP outlets with the most jackpot winners. The 6
Singapore Sweep tickets are from the top 6 Group 1 winners
(excluding iTOTO) in 2015.
The ten SGP
outlets are:
Source: Singapore
Pools
From a random walk
point of view, the place where you buy the TOTO ticket should not
have any bearing on the probability of winning the jackpot. How can
the place where you bought the ticket actually influence and affect
the six numbers that are going to be obtained sometime in the
future at a different location.
Of course, there
are multiple possible reasons that people can always come up with.
(1) Feng Shui of the outlets, (2) God of Wealth overlooks those
outlets, (3) the environment of the outlet breeds luck and wealth,
and many more.
If you are a firm
believer that those outlets will continue producing jackpot-winning
tickets, then you should either buy the $228 Pack Deal or
personally travel down to those outlets and buy those tickets.
In the last top
20-jackpot prize values (ranging between $4.2mil to $12.1mil), 10
winners are solo winners, means they win the entire jackpot money
to themselves. The smallest amount was $4.24 million while the
largest solo winner fattens his bank account by $8.04 million.
If we were to only
use these 20 sample size as a proxy for your probability of not
sharing the $12 million, you have about 50% chance (10/20) of being
really rich overnight, alone.
Of course, we need
to mention that the probability of winning the jackpot is
0.00000715%. Yes, that is 1 in 13,983,816. Even if everyone in
Singapore were to purchase two TOTO tickets in a sequential manner,
there is still a high chance that none of us will win the
jackpot.
This is based on
the assumption that you are the only winner for that prize group (1
to 4 only) and that you only buy one ordinary
entry or quick pick.
By adding the
expected returns from each category (cash prize multiply by the
probability of winning it) that would give us a total expected
return of $76.16. Lessing the $1 we initially used to buy the TOTO
ticket would give us a Net Present Value (NPV) of $75.16. Let’s
just ignore the discount factor since the draw time and the
purchase time is not significantly different (and seriously, how
much opportunity cost will anyone lose from that $1).
How do you intend
to place your bets for this $12 million CNY draw? Let us know your
betting strategies.
We would like to
wish everyone a Happy Chinese New Year, blessed with health, wealth
and harmony throughout the year of the monkey.
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post What
You Should Know About The CNY’s $12 Million TOTO
Draw appeared first onDollarsAndSense.sg.