How You Guys Look At The Economy 2013 ???

Westson SG

Personally felt unease about 2013 Sg economy.

Most fields are in bad shape, except property.

Any expert mind to share ?

troublemaker2005 SG

no wonder property tax so high this year. gahmen has to tax tax from this property. nabe, buy house to live in not sell also get tax? sell and rent then tax them hard lah, never sell never rant tax what ass?!

charlize SG

2013 is the year of huat.

Prices of everything will go higher and higher.

troublemaker2005 SG

i use black magic - pian! 2013 will be a good year

M the name SG

S'pore stocks: What to buy

Analysts recommend companies in the oil and gas and commodity sectors

Yasmine Yahya

Singapore stocks defied the odds to surge almost 20 per cent last year and as incredible as that was, analysts are bullish that they will continue rising this year.

They forecast that the benchmark Straits Times Index could climb a further 5 per cent to 8 per cent over the next 12 months.

And these stock market experts are now advocating a more aggressive strategy as major concerns that dogged markets last year, such as the euro zone debt crisis and a slowdown in the Chinese economy, have become less worrying.

While defensive stocks still have their place in the discerning investor's portfolio, analysts say it is now time to make some space for cyclical counters as well.

Oil and gas

Companies in this sector are among the most popular with analysts, with Keppel Corp, Semb- corp Marine and Ezion Holdings making it to many brokerages' lists of favourite stocks for the year.

"We expect 2013 to be another year of strong order wins for the offshore players and that would provide positive share price catalysts," noted Maybank-Kim Eng.

OCBC Investment Research wrote: "We continue to favour the oil and gas sector, despite the strong outperformance in 2012 because of the sector's strong order books, good long-term earnings visibility and a host of well-run companies within the sector."

Reiterating its buy call on Keppel, OCBC noted that the firm started to improve the productivity of its regional satellite yards to meet heavier workload requirements.

This is a good strategy to pursue so that more work can be outsourced to regional yards in the future to free up space in the Singapore yards, it added.

Maybank Kim-Eng, meanwhile, underlined its belief in Sembcorp Marine.

It noted that naysayers have criticised the rigbuilder's decision to start making drill ships in Brazil, an unfamiliar market.

But it added: "We concur with the potential for initial hiccups but we see longer-term benefits. Sembcorp Marine is opening up a new market for itself as deeper water drilling would shift preference for more drill ships and semisubs."

DMG & Partners Research, however, said intense competition from South Korean and Chinese yards could affect these giant rig builders' ability to capture contracts and might even eat into their profit margins.

It also believes that there is limited room for rig prices to rise, and this will cap any expansion in Keppel's and Sembcorp's margins.

DMG is more upbeat on smaller players in the sector, such as Ezion and Nam Cheong.

Ezion's net profit could double this year, as more of its liftboats and service rigs will be starting their long-term charters, while Nam Cheong's successful build-to- stock business model "appeals to some of its long-term partners", DMG said.

Commodities

Stocks in this sector were so unloved last year that analysts believe they now hold very good value for investors with some risk appetite.

CIMB Research's strategy report said that the industry's unpredictability and earnings disappointments were to blame for their unpopularity.

However, it believes the picture is brightening for some, especially Wilmar - whose share price plunged by more than 34 per cent last year - and CWT.

"Wilmar has had a turnaround quarter and is guiding profitability for its oilseed and grains division, as it has been timing its feedstock purchases well," CIMB noted.

As for CWT, the brokerage said it is "an under-the-radar performer, with its base metal business showing consistency".

DMG, meanwhile, likes Noble Group, which early last year shocked the market by posting its first quarterly loss in 14 years and then announced disappointing third-quarter profits.

"We think that the worst could be over for Noble," DMG wrote, saying that it has been oversold and that its valuations now look attractive.

Maybank-Kim Eng is also bullish on Noble, saying it has the most robust balance sheet among locally listed commodity players and that it is also the one best positioned to benefit from an upturn in China.

Financials

Analysts are neutral on financial stocks, as they believe their earnings do not have much room to grow this year.

"Banks are cheap but slowing loan growth, sustained margin pressures and a likely retreat in business-related fees and treasury opportunities equate to flat earnings growth," CIMB wrote.

"Earnings risks stem from higher credit costs if business non-performing loans start to edge up."

Among the three local banks, CIMB is most bullish about DBS, which it noted is the cheapest and the one best poised to capture investment banking fees from a booming debt capital market.

So too Maybank-Kim Eng, which said: "Moreover, as one of the largest players in the offshore yuan market, DBS is well-positioned to ride China's growing internationalisation."

OCBC analysts think United Overseas Bank could be a good pick.

"Management has indicated that the retail portion of its fee and commission income should still remain healthy and could benefit from growth in investment-related products from around the region," they said.

Telcos

This is another sector analysts are not too excited about, as they expect margins to remain under pressure.

This is because the telcos are likely to continue providing generous subsidies for handsets and devices in order to promote their data services and win over new customers.

Among the three telcos listed here, analysts are most upbeat about StarHub, as it is the one that is most likely to pay out high dividends.

Maybank-Kim Eng wrote: "StarHub is still our preferred choice for 2013 despite unexciting earnings growth prospects as it is the best dividend play among the telcos."

Transport

With transport operators facing mounting cost pressures and an ever challenging business environment, analysts do not expect this to be a stellar sector this year.

Although stocks are cheap, they have no reason to recover either, CIMB noted.

Aviation faces a tough, competitive environment while shipping rates are falling rapidly.

Land transport operators, which are under pressure to raise service standards, will have to spend even more on staffing, maintenance and depreciations.

DMG has named ComfortDelGro as its top pick for the sector, as it has more business overseas than other locally listed transport players.

Maybank-Kim Eng is optimistic that an economic recovery will lift shipping.

Neptune Orient Lines is its top pick for its significant exposure to the trans-Pacific trade and relatively minimal exposure to the Asia-Europe trade.

"The Asia-Europe trade remains beset by euro zone woes and is fully exposed to the onslaught of new shipping capacity coming on-stream in 2013."

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is Maybank-Kim Eng's other "buy" call within the shipping sub-sector, as it also benefits from a recovering economic situation and has an attractive distribution yield of about 8 per cent.

TELCOS: Analysts expect profit margins of telcos to remain under pressure, as they are likely to continue giving generous subsidies for handsets and devices to win over new customers. Among the three telcos listed in Singapore, analysts are most upbeat about StarHub.

OIL & GAS : Companies in this sector are among the most popular with analysts. Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine and Ezion Holdings have made it to many brokerages' lists of favourite stocks for the year.

COMMODITIES: These were unpopular last year, but analysts think they now hold good value for those with risk appetite. CIMB Research singled out Wilmar(above), saying it has had "a turnaround quarter".

FINANICALS: Among the three local banks, CIMB and Maybank-Kim Eng are most bullish about DBS, with CIMB saying it is in the best position to capture investment banking fees from a booming debt capital market.

TRANSPORT: Maybank-Kim Eng is optimistic that an economic recovery will lift shipping, and Neptune Orient Lines is its top pick for its significant exposure to the trans-Pacific trade.

PHOTOS: KUA CHEE SIONG, KEPPEL, BLOOMBERG, ST FILE

Invest, The Sunday Times, January 13 2013, Pg 31-32

BadzMaro SG

They recommend the same thing every year. lol

Now its a matter of buying MORE Of those stocks.

Red5xx SG

Personally felt unease about 2013 Sg economy.

Most fields are in bad shape, except property.

Any expert mind to share ?

property also in bad shit...

charlize SG

Rly?

Cooling measures no use one.

M the name SG

US toys with trillion-dollar coin idea

Proposal to get around debt ceiling gains attention but may be shortlived

WASHINGTON - A bizarre but seemingly legal idea to get around the country's debt ceiling using a trillion-dollar coin is having its day in Washington.

The proposal, which originated in economics and business blogs and has a remote chance of happening, has won ample attention and garnered new controversy as Republicans and the White House seem to be headed for yet another stand-off over a legal limit on the country's debt - a fight that may come as soon as next month.

On Wednesday, the idea of a trillion-dollar coin made it all the way to the White House.

"There is no Plan B, there is no backup plan. There is Congress' responsibility to pay the bills of the United States," said White House press secretary Jay Carney, who responded to a dozen questions about the trillion-dollar coin at a news conference. "I have no coins in my pocket," he later said.

But he did not rule the idea out explicitly, deferring later questions to the Treasury Department.

That has left a few supporters hoping that in one of his last acts in office, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner might trot out a shiny platinum coin emblazoned with "In God We Trust" and a "1" with 12 zeros behind it.

The workaround would come from exploiting a 1997 law that allows the Treasury to mint and issue platinum bullion coins, even a US$1 trillion (S$1.2 trillion) coin. This could be deposited at the Federal Reserve, thus placing the US below its US$16.4 trillion borrowing ceiling.

Congress' refusal in 2011 to raise the debt ceiling unless the White House agreed to large spending cuts brought the US close to the brink of a debt default and dealt the weak recovery a set-back.

With the need to raise the debt limit again on the horizon, President Barack Obama has this time taken the position that doing so is Congress' responsibility and that because a debt default would cause widespread economic damage, he does not need to offer lawmakers incentives to do so.

Blog commentators came up with the idea in 2010, and it gained some attention from financial writers and monetary policy followers during the 2011 debt ceiling stand-off.

Now, with Republicans and the White House again at odds, the country is expected to run out of spare cash some time between the middle of next month and March.

Thus, some in the liberal intelligentsia and a number of prominent economics commentators - most notably Mr Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider and Mr Josh Barro of Bloomberg View - revived the trillion-dollar coin idea.

This time, they went on a vigorous public relations campaign as well. The #mintthecoin has drummed up hundreds of social media responses, and a petition on the White House website has more than 7,000 signatures.

The idea also won apparent support from heavy hitters, such as Nobel laureate and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman.

"It's pretty wild," Mr Weisenthal said of his campaign's success, saying the point was to expose the "absurdity" of the debt ceiling debate in the first place.

"If you think the trillion-dollar coin is silly, you should think the debate on whether a rich country would fail to pay its bills is silly.

NEW YORK TIMES, REUTERS

The law behind the coin solution

THE coin solution comes from a 1997 law that allows the Treasury to "mint and issue platinum bullion coins and proof platinum coins in accordance with such specifications, designs, varieties, quantities, denominations, and inscriptions as the Secretary, in the Secretary's discretion, may prescribe from time to time".

The idea was that a secretary might authorise the creation of a commemorative eagle coin, for instance, to be put on sale for collectors. But the law inadvertently gave the Treasury Secretary the power to mint, say, a US$1 trillion coin, or even a US$1 quadrillion coin.

Rather than selling it, he might deposit it at the Federal Reserve. Presto! The shiny new asset would erase US$1 trillion in debt liabilities.

Then, the Treasury could carry out its spending without hitting the ceiling.

NEW YORK TIMES

World, The Straits Times, Friday, January 11 2013, Pg A30

isaacpck SG

I think it will be great... thing is.. always remember that every morning will be a great morning

M the name SG

US DEBT CRISIS

The danger of the platinum coin

A "clock" in New York tracking the amount of US national debt. The debt ceiling is now a ticking time bomb beneath the US economy. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS .

By EZRA KLEIN

MUCH political commentary has, in recent days, revolved around a most unusual question: Should the Treasury Department mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin that can be used to pay off the United States' debts in the event House Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling? The short answer is: No, it shouldn't.

The long answer is also: No, it shouldn't.

The debt ceiling is now a time bomb beneath the US economy. If the White House can render it harmless by encasing it in an indestructible tomb of platinum, then perhaps our problems are solved. And the arguments in favour of the coin are logically and legally sound. A straightforward reading of the law suggests that, whatever Congress' intent, the Treasury Department is clearly empowered to mint coins of unlimited value. A coin of unlimited value would allow us to pay off our debts.

President Barack Obama could even, as Bloomberg View writer Josh Barro has suggested, offer to sign a Bill eliminating both the debt ceiling and the Treasury Department's ability to mint coins of any value.

And so, as economist Paul Krugman argues, we are "faced with a choice between two alternatives: one that's silly but benign" - the coin - "the other that's equally silly, but both vile and disastrous" - the debt ceiling. "The decision should be obvious."

But there's nothing benign about the platinum coin. It is a breakdown in the American system of governance, a symbol that we have become a banana republic. And perhaps we have. But the platinum coin is not the first cousin of cleanly raising the debt ceiling. It is the first cousin of defaulting on our debts. As with true default, it proves to the financial markets that we can no longer be trusted to manage our economic affairs predictably and rationally.

Banana republic

IT IS evidence that American politics has transitioned from dysfunctional to broken and that all manner of once-ludicrous outcomes have muscled their way into the realm of possibility. As with default, it will mean our borrowing costs rise and financial markets gradually lose trust in our system, though perhaps not with the disruptive panic that default would bring.

Sadly, none of that is actually a reasonable argument against the platinum coin. The fact that we wish we were not a banana republic witnessing a full-blown meltdown o£ our treasured system of governance does not mean we are not, in fact, a banana republic witnessing a full-blown meltdown of our treasured system of governance.

The argument against minting the platinum coin is simply this: It makes it harder to solve the actual problem facing our country. That problem is not the debt ceiling, per se, though it manifests itself most dangerously through the debt ceiling.

It's a Republican Party that has grown extreme enough to persuade itself that stratagems like threatening default are reasonable. It's that our two-party political system breaks down when one of the two parties comes unmoored. Minting the coin doesn't so much solve that problem as surrender to it.

Republican brinkmanship

THE platinum coin is an attempt to delay a reckoning that we unfortunately need to have. It takes a debate that will properly focus on the GOP's reckless threat to force the US into default, and refocuses it on a seemingly absurd power grab by the executive branch. It is of no solace that many of the intuitive arguments against the platinum coin can be calmly rebutted. It's the wrong debate to be having.

Worse, it is a debate that will strengthen the worst factions in the Republican Party. There are plenty of Republicans who are privately uncomfortable with the party's shift towards repetitive brinkmanship. Some of them are quite powerful.

Recall that in 2011, Senate Minority Leader Mitch MCConnell basically tried tb trick his party into giving up its power over the debt ceiling. Just last weekend, Mr Newt Gingrich said the, debt ceiling is "a dead loser" for the GOP and advised Republicans to find "a totally new strategy".

Mr Philip Klein, a columnist at the Washington Examiner, put it clearly: "As a conservative, I fear Republicans overplaying their hand, delaying a debt limit increase so long that financial markets begin to panic. As a result, small-government ideology will be associated in the public mind with economic chaos and conservatism will be seen as incompatible with governance."

The fact is that after losing the 2012 election, and with the business community mobilising against the threat of default, the leadership of the Republican Party is going to have a terrible time holding its members together on the debt ceiling.

Even more problematic, from the perspective of conservative hardliners, is that many of the GOP's leaders are themselves scared of the debt ceiling and looking for a way out. There is a very good chance that this fight can be won and these tactics discredited.

The White House's gamble

THE moment the White House declares itself open to minting the coin, the Republican Party's extremists can breathe a sigh of relief. They may not have been able to hold the line for a strategy that sought unpopular Medicare cuts by threatening a disastrous default.

But they can certainly hold the line against what will, among their members, be seen as a wild, unprecedented, inflationary power grab by an overreaching president. Making matters more difficult, it will become impossible for more cautious Republicans to break ranks.

It's one thing to argue, as many are already doing, that inducing default risks destroying the Republican Party for a generation. It's another to abet such a blatantly unconstitutional, dangerous move from the executive branch. As Mr Klein writes: "If Obama were to listen to liberals and go the coin route instead, it would be tossing a life preserver to Republicans."

Nor is it entirely clear that the platinum coin would end the issue. The working assumption of many of the coin's promoters is that Republicans would eventually give up and the coin could be melted down. The platinum coin, in this telling, removes the Republican Party's leverage and forces them to come to their senses.

But as columnist Ross Douthat asks: "Is this generally how politics works of late? One party behaves irresponsibly, the other side counters with a wave of irresponsibility of its own (because that's the only way to make those crazies see reason...), and then the first party recognises the error of its ways and everyone returns to behaving reasonably? Does that pattern describe the polarised Washington that we've come to know and love?"

It is likelier that the platinum coin would drive the Republican Party towards a much more dangerous and enduring stand-off.

If Republicans never permitted another debt increase, would Americans just keep minting platinum coins? Would the Federal Reserve abet the strategy and work to hold down inflation, effectively putting itself in the middle of a titanic political fight? Would the market eventually begin to panic because American governance has entered into unknown territory?

There are two ways to truly resolve the debt-ceiling stand-off. One is that the Republican Party needs to break, proving to itself and to the country that the adults remain in charge.

The other is that America is pushed into default and voters - and the world - reckon with what Americans have become, and what needs to be done about it. Sadly, there's no easy way out. It's heads, America wins; tails, America loses.

The writer is a columnist at the Washington Post. His work focuses on domestic and economic policy-making, as well as the political system.

WASHINGTON POST

Opinion, The Strait Times, Saturday, January 12 2013, Pg A42

charlize SG

If I have $453, can invest in what?

Just_do_it_lah SG

If I have $453, can invest in what?

$453 ?

U can invest in.....