Valencia vs
Chelsea
This match has the making of a classic, as Chelsea visit the
Mestalla looking to overcome the away-goal they conceded at
Stamford Bridge last week. A cracker of a goal from David Silva had
Chelsea fans on the edge of their seats praying for an equaliser,
which came eventually in the form of a Didier Drogba's looping
header which gave Valencia keeper Santiago Canizares no chance.
Valencia will be happy with a 0-0 draw today... whereas Chelsea
need to score or they are out. I think Valencia are the better bet
on the handicap today, and here's why:
1) Valencia have played English oppositions 13 times at their home
of Mestalla, and they have only lost twice - they are unbeaten in
85% of those matches. Avoiding a defeat here is all it takes to
break even on the handicap.
2) If Point Number One is not convincing enough, Point Number Two
sure is. Chelsea have played Spanish sides a total of 10 times away
from their home of Stamford Bridge, and they have only managed 1
win. That's winning 10% of their matches away from home against
Spanish oppositions... not an encouraging stat to bring into
today's game.
3) Valencia's key players are fresher than Chelsea's key players.
Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba, John Terry, Claude Makalele, Ricardo
Carvalho and Petr Cech all played the full 90 minutes against
Tottenham. Valencia, on the contrary, rested midfield man David
Albelda, highly rated winger Sanchez Joaquin, Argentine defensive
rock Roberto Ayala, number one keeper Santiago Canizares,
Portuguese wing back Luis Miguel and top scorer David Villa. No
surprise they lost that game against Bilbao playing their second
team, but they are now back to full strength, and with fresh legs
to last the gruelling 90 minutes.
4) Fernando Morientes is back for Valencia, and that is an added
boost. Morientes has shrugged off a shoulder injury to be fit for
selection, so his return eases the absence of Vicente Rodriguez.
Silva could drop to the left to allow Morientes to slot in
alongside Villa. Terry and Carvalho were challenged to some extent
by the combination of Villa, Silva and Joaquin in the first leg,
and now that challenge would get harder with the inclusion of
established poacher Morientes.
5) Valencia have not lost at the Mestalla in their last 4 home
Champions League games. With the team they have now, I cannot see
why that trend is going to be broken.
6) Chelsea's form away from home in the Champions League this
season has not been too great. They have only won once in 4 away
outings, away at Levski Sofia. They drew Barcelona 2-2, drew Porto
1-1, and lost to Werder Bremen 0-1. Valencia are definitely in the
class of Barca, Porto and Bremen, as opposed to Levski Sofia, so
I'd expect Chelsea to struggle yet again.
Chelsea may be challenging for trophies on all 3 fronts, but I see
one of those challenges ending tonight. Valencia are by no means
pushovers - in fact, they will give any team in the world a good
run for their money. David Villa has been in inspired form since
the World Cup, while Joaquin is slowly justifying the tag of the
best winger in the world. We saw glimpses of that in the 1st leg at
Stamford Bridge, and surely he'd impress even more in front of the
Mestalla crowd. Chelsea will fight for that away goal from the
first whistle, but make no mistake, Valencia will not lie down and
die - and I see them scoring on the counter. Valencia for the
Semis.
