Devastating Earthquake May Threaten Middle East's
Near Future, Geologist Predicts
Science Daily The best seismologists in the world dont know when
the next big earthquake will hit. But a Tel Aviv University
geologist suggests that earthquake patterns recorded in historical
documents of Middle Eastern countries indicate that the regions
next significant quake is long overdue.
Damage in Jerusalem's Old City following a July 11, 1927,
earthquake. One of the first earthquakes on the Dead Sea Fault to
be recorded by modern seismographic techniques, it reached 6.2 on
the Richter scale. The epicenter was in the northern part of the
Dead Sea. (Credit: American Colony Hotel, American Colony
Collection)
A major quake of magnitude seven on the Richter scale in the
politically-fragile region of the Middle East could have dire
consequences for precious holy sites and even world peace, says Tel
Aviv University geologist Dr. Shmulik Marco. In light of this
imminent danger, Marco, from the schools Department of Geophysics
and Planetary Sciences, has taken an historical approach to
earthquake forecasting by using ancient records from the Vatican
and other religious sources in his assessment. The past holds the
key to the future, he says.
All of us in the region should be worried, explains Marco, who
dedicates his career to piecing together ancient clues.
Based on the translations of hundreds of documents -- some of the
originals of which he assumes reside in Vatican vaults -- Marco has
helped determine that a series of devastating earthquakes have hit
the Holy Land over the last two thousand years. The major ones were
recorded along the Jordan Valley in the years 31 B.C.E., 363 C.E.,
749 C.E., and 1033 C.E. So roughly, warns Marco, we are talking
about an interval of every 400 years. If we follow the patterns of
nature, a major quake should be expected any time because almost a
whole millennium has passed since the last strong earthquake of
1033.
Written by monks and clergy, the documents, which span about two
millenia, can help determine the location and impact of future
quakes on several fault planes cutting through Israel and its
neighboring countries, Marco believes. We use the records, written
in churches and monasteries or by hermits in the desert, to find
patterns, he says. Marco credits the help of an international team
of historians, who have deciphered the Latin, Greek, and Arabic of
the original correspondence.
He continues, Even if these papers were not officially recording
history, they hold a lot of information. ... Some are letters to
Europe asking for funding of church repairs. And while many of
these accounts are told in an archaic religious manner, they help
us confirm the dates and location of major calamities. Following
these patterns in the past can be a good predictor of the
future.
One of the most cited Christian chroniclers in history upon whom
Marco bases some of his conclusions is a ninth-century Byzantine
aristocratic monk named Theophanes, venerated today by Catholics.
In one manuscript, Theophanes wrote, A great earthquake in
Palestine, by the Jordan and in all of Syria on 18 January in the
4th hour. Numberless multitudes perished, churches and monasteries
collapsed especially in the desert of the Holy City.
While Christian sources helped Marco confirm ancient catastrophes
and cast light on future ones, Jewish sources from the Bible also
gave him small pieces of the puzzle. A verse in Zachariah (Ch. 14)
describes two instances of earthquakes, one of which split apart
the Mount of Olives, he says. Muslim clergy have also collected
ancient correspondence, which further broadens the picture.
Earthquakes are a manifestation of deeper processes inside the
earth, Marco says. My questions and analysis examine how often
they occur and whether there is pattern to them, temporally or
spatially. I am looking for patterns and I can say that based on
ancient records, the pattern in Israel around the Dead Sea region
is the most disturbing to us.
When it strikes and it will this quake will affect Amman, Jordan
as well as Ramallah, Bethlehem, and Jerusalem. Earthquakes dont
care about religion or political boundaries, Marco concludes.